Tom Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 ENSO 1.2 Region warming is having a minimal impact to the overall broader spectrum of the current ENSO... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif Easterlies have weakened a bit allowing for the slight ENSO 1.2 warming. There is still a rather large difference between ENSO 3.4 & 1.2 Notice where the majority of the warming is occurring over the last week... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta-week.gif Here are the weekly ENSO #'s... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta_c.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 So by your theory as long as 3.4 is warmer the 1.2 the temperature of 1.2 doesn't matter? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 So by your theory as long as 3.4 is warmer the 1.2 the temperature of 1.2 doesn't matter? It significantly suggests where the main convection will be centered in the tropics and therefore develops the mean trough to north in the N PAC (Aleutian Low) where all the global models are suggesting it to be centered in Dec-Feb. In 1997-98 the main body of warmest waters were in ENSO 1.2 and in return placed the main trough off the western U.S. coastling flooding the U.S. with pacific air. This season, that is the biggest difference between these two ENSO events. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 1, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 I see the Aleutian Low trying to get established next week. It keeps on moving though during this timeframe. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 It significantly suggests where the main convection will be centered in the tropics and therefore develops the mean trough to north in the N PAC (Aleutian Low) where all the global models are suggesting it to be centered in Dec-Feb. In 1997-98 the main body of warmest waters were in ENSO 1.2 and in return placed the main trough off the western U.S. coastling flooding the U.S. with pacific air. This season, that is the biggest difference between these two ENSO events.Nice! That helps me understand the situation a lot more. And I remember the 97-98 Winter. No wonder it was so mild. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 2, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 2, 2015 Here's an animation of what is too become of the equatorial Pacific waters in the coming months to year. 2 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 2, 2015 Report Share Posted December 2, 2015 Here's an animation of what is too become of the equatorial Pacific waters in the coming months to year. http://i.imgur.com/aSF0jx7.gifWould that be a La Nina coming to fruition?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 2, 2015 Report Share Posted December 2, 2015 Would that be a La Nina coming to fruition??Indeed, most models are starting to show a La Nina type pattern...some show a strong La Nina... http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2015-11_for_2016-09.jpg Here's an animation of what is too become of the equatorial Pacific waters in the coming months to year. http://i.imgur.com/aSF0jx7.gifThat would be a very interesting weather pattern to have some warm waters still present in the GOA and off the Baja/Cali coastline while a strong La Nina is on going. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 2, 2015 Report Share Posted December 2, 2015 Huge nina+ positive PDO. Hmmm. There'd have to be a pretty narrow subset of years to fit that description. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 7, 2015 Report Share Posted December 7, 2015 Looks like nino may have peeked. Only region not to drop this week....1.2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 7, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2015 3.4 dipped to 2.9 this past week. Probably done rising given the SOI. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 If I have learned one thinking in watching nino evolve it is that you have to take the models completely with a grain of salt. Most models had 1.2 tanking in november. Still climbing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 11, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 Found this animation interesting. Not that it directly affects the surface weather, but colder water can be seen moving east and up slightly in the equatorial Pacific.Next spring or summer those anomalies will have flipped if La Niña prediction hold true. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 11, 2015 Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 Could be a an active severe weather season if that were to come fruition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 11, 2015 Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 Found this animation interesting. Not that it directly affects the surface weather, but colder water can be seen moving east and up slightly in the equatorial Pacific.Next spring or summer those anomalies will have flipped if La Niña prediction hold true. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gifYeah. That things going to crash and burn hard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 11, 2015 Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 Yeah. That things going to crash and burn hard.The nino?? Other have been calling for its breakdown since early November. The effects of nino are going to be felt at least well into january Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 12, 2015 Report Share Posted December 12, 2015 I was referring to SSTs only. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 12, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2015 Effects last longer than the warm SST anomalies. It's like the ghost of the el Niño lives a bit longer as it's dying. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 13, 2015 Report Share Posted December 13, 2015 1.2 holding strong as 3 and 3.4 drop Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 13, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2015 1.2 holding strong as 3 and 3.4 drop 1.2 is usually the last area to drop. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 13, 2015 Report Share Posted December 13, 2015 Effects last longer than the warm SST anomalies. It's like the ghost of the el Niño lives a bit longer as it's dying.Correct. The atmospheric effects of the 09-10 el nino lingered long into 10-11. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2015 Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 SCRIPPS ENSO Forecast... Dec-Feb...http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2015-12_for_2015-12.jpg Next Fall (Sept-Nov)... http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2015-12_for_2016-09.jpg Wow, now that is an impressive flip if this should transpire. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 16, 2015 Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 Wow, they moved it up almost 2 months didn't they? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 17, 2015 Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 The latest JAMSTEC run continues to suggest the El Nino to crash and burn as we roll into the New Year... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1dec2015.gif A weak La NINA develops by Autumn of next year according to this run. Take a gander at what happens by late summer in the N PAC...very cold waters develop south of the Aleutians and another year may be on the table where warmer waters hug the NW NAMER coastline. This SST orientation would set the stage for yet another interesting winter next year. Let's not get ahead of ourselves though. We still have plenty of Winter on the table this year. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.JJA2016.1dec2015.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 17, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 The latest JAMSTEC run continues to suggest the El Nino to crash and burn as we roll into the New Year... A weak La NINA develops by Autumn of next year according to this run. Take a gander at what happens by late summer in the N PAC...very cold waters develop south of the Aleutians and another year may be on the table where warmer waters hug the NW NAMER coastline. This SST orientation would set the stage for yet another interesting winter next year. Let's not get ahead of ourselves though. We still have plenty of Winter on the table this year. Fix those pic links when you get a chance. That will be one interesting combination if warm waters are still hugging the West Coast. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 17, 2015 Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 Every model has had nino crashibg abd burning since early november Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 17, 2015 Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 Fix those pic links when you get a chance. That will be one interesting combination if warm waters are still hugging the West Coast.Fixed. Can you see the pics in the Winter Outlook? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 17, 2015 Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 Fixed. Can you see the pics in the Winter Outlook?yes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Easterlies have strengthened again as the SOI rises following the recent decline. Having done so, cooler waters seemingly are up welling off the South American coastline as ENSO 1.2 region falling quickly.,... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png Meanwhile, ENSO 3.4 holding steady suggesting the warmest waters are migrating towards the central Pacific. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 20, 2015 Report Share Posted December 20, 2015 ENSO 3.4 rising a bit as warmer waters migrate west-ward... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png ENSO 1.2 still declining...looks like a true "Modiki" like Nino is trying to form... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino12.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 20, 2015 Report Share Posted December 20, 2015 Its almost january. The modoki ship has sailed. Any met would agree Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 20, 2015 Report Share Posted December 20, 2015 Its almost january. The modoki ship has sailed. Any met would agreeWhatever you say...I'll make sure I sharpen my pencil and take this note down. You obviously are not seeing the trough south of the Aleutians that the models are picking up on which correlates very well when you see a Modiki Nino. For example, CFSv2 Weeklies see it happening in the central Pacific... Week 1...barely any convection http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2015122006/cfs-avg_mslpa5d_cpac_1.png Week 2... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2015122006/cfs-avg_mslpa5d_cpac_2.png Week 4.... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2015122006/cfs-avg_mslpa5d_cpac_5.png As more convection develops in the central Pacific, the response is to build the trough due north and placement is very similar to where the EPS/GEFS are seeing it. Winter is maturing and Nature is responding. Jet hasn't even reached it's peak yet, far from it... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 20, 2015 Report Share Posted December 20, 2015 I am basking in my plus 12.4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 20, 2015 Report Share Posted December 20, 2015 I am basking in my plus 12.4Fantastic...did you put on any SPF 30? J/K Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 20, 2015 Report Share Posted December 20, 2015 Lol. By the way I still believe we do see I to I in the idea of storms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 what an epic collapse Latest values: Region1+2 and 3.4 went up .1This ain't collapsing... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 A nice add on. Since november 18 1.2 has risen .3 degrees while 3.4 has dropped. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 Hmmm, where are the charts for this? Interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 Cpc weekly updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 Cpc weekly updatesCool. Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.