00z Euro appears to be following the 00z CMC's playbook. Definitely a much more suppressed pattern in the near term with the trough holding less energy back than before. Systems still don't really kick off to the degree the old GFS solution was showing but the pattern is favorable enough in the short term that it leads to long term gains... Good enough for a little Thanksgiving dinnertime snow for some folks. Also like seeing models agreeing on cold air in Canada for the mid/long term. Ultimately wish the pattern was a bit more zonal/SW and less from the NW so we could pull in more moisture but same with CMC run tonight, I feel like this was a step in the right direction with the overall pattern providing multiple chances at scoring something. At the very least there's no boring death ridge in sight.

Arkstorm isn’t the right analogy IMO, the risk here is catastrophic burn scar flooding. Which is a different flavor of bad.

Now we’re getting somewhere

Notable improvements on the GEFS by the start of Thanksgiving week. Cold is further south and the anomalies are deeper. I'll be interested to see the member view/spaghetti plots. Bet this is being dragged down by a few more members who go crazy. 18z GEFS: 00z GEFS: Run to run change: