What a scintillating suite of 00z runs tonight. Let's see how things look in 4-5 days, until then....

I'll be interested to see if it all of sudden starts going Nina-like, or if it will continue the yearly trend. SOI is the most basic ENSO measurement, but it does have a decent H5 correlation. I think its pattern correlation is linked to the subsurface (the subsurface tends to warm/cool with SOI episodes).

I just don't see it. Clear skies, big ridge, perfect surface gradient late in the run for a runaway inversion.

This has definitely been a strange season for ENSO. The SOI has consistently been the missing piece and now it looks like it has found its voice. I'll be interested to see how this unfolds.

+AAM pattern from what I've seen. Nino 1+2 has also warmed to +0.8c!