18z actually has a weather system by day 9. A stalled warm front that lifts back north..... on the up and up finally!!!

Up to half an inch of rain for KSEA over the last 24 hours. Not bad for a weak deformation zone in the NE corner of a dying cutoff low.

48/43 for KSEA today. yaaaaaaaaaaaaaawn

Models are stuck in a rudder. We don't have any realistic idea of what will happen beyond two weeks from now, but this sucks. Work is getting busier and more stressful and admittedly I was really hoping to have the weather as a distraction. Early December quiet is often a precursor to an active middle and back end to winter, but losing any meaningful La Niña influence so quickly has put quite the dent into my confidence in that progression. Neutral winters aren't a death sentence compared to La Niña, but it's pretty sad this season has been a runaway disaster since late Oct. From the flailing ENSO to the details of each pattern presenting unfavorably to bring interesting weather or cold anomalies. Just a standard under-par Fall transitioning into a bleak beginning to winter. Boring in the most boring way. At least the Cascades aren't in a terrible spot... Ironically the lack of strong, warm Pacific weather systems that make life interesting here has preserved the surprisingly good snowpack that the mountains are holding onto.

It’s still the standard when it comes to atmospheric failures. Pattern essentially “locked in” for about three weeks from just after Xmas through mid January yet every nuance broke bad for most of the region.