I mean if it was February it would suck more for this to slide east but we’re not even into winter yet so no big deal if this doesn’t work out in the end. We’ve seen these near miss model projections come back around as we get closer before so it’s possible albeit it unlikely.

Desperation

GEM is like yesterdays GFS runs, its like the models are playing cat and mouse. It will inevitable slide east in the end so why do we even bother with this stuff.

12z GFS coming in looking much more 00z ECMWF-like than anything resembling it's 00z and 06z runs. Very snowy run, similar to the AIFS as well. Interestingly, the components of what to watch for have changed a bit. Taking a look at the 500mb pattern, instead of a consolidated trough that crosses the CONUS and spins up lee cycologenesis with one big storm, we instead have an almost continuous wave of moisture from multiple pieces of energy that combines to a lot of snowfall. I think this is what the AIFS has been hinting at yesterday and even it's 00z run from last night. The first is a trough that drops down from Canada around next Saturday that drops snow from SD/MN/IA/WI. The next is a piece that peels off from the main west coast trough a few days later that adds NE to the mix. And then finally the cutoff low kicks out a few days after that which further hits all those same areas. So there a couple different routes we can take to get snowy. That is always an encouraging sign. 00z ECMWF run below as I think it most distinctly shows the energies we are watching at 500mb. You can also see all three energies in the 00z AIFS 12-hour precip loop, and the 12z GFS precip loop showing these three as well. Much different than it's 00z run and more closer aligned with the ECMWF/AIFS, which reflects in the snowfall map. Unfortunately areas to the south of roughly I-80 stay as rain the majority of the time but this is still a ways out so lots can and probably will change.

GFS seems to be coming into alignment with what the Euro AI has been showing for days with the snowier picture in the future and back to back storms just after Thanksgiving, along with the pre-Thanksgiving storm for the northern plains. As always I-80 in eastern Iowa is always the dividing line. Way too early to worry about that, but nice to see some rough agreement showing up in the extended. Definitely need to continue to monitor through the weekend, but next Saturday is starting to look like a day to watch.