Yeah 7-8 favors East, 1-2 favors West. But you can still deliver with any of the phases if it works out. I've checked some of our better snow years and not all of them relied on phase 1-2.

For those unaware, the DJF temperature correlations for the MJO: Like you mentioned, Phase 6 pretty strongly correlates to the sloppy splitty garbage we've been seeing the last few weeks. Phases 7-8 are a little less progressive and trending more towards a meridional/blocking pattern. 8 tends to favor West Coast ridging, which can at least be cold during inversion season.

I noticed that on the GFS the other day and now all models are latching on. I really hope we avoid that.

def need to get out of MJO 6

The TNH seems more like an effect teleconnection, rather than a causal one. Basically describes the current pattern like PNA. ENSO, IOD, PDO, EAMT, and MJO are more worth watching as these can actually drive patterns like TNH and PNA. In particular we're looking for -PNA, with a slightly positive TNH which tends to come with phases 7-8-1-2 and La Nina, and possibly boosted by a -PDO. We also want a -EAMT to help retract the jet and avoid a progressive pattern and transient ridge over the Aleutians. Right now the MJO is not favorable (Phase 6) and we have a +EAMT fighting to extend the jet, pushing the cold east.