You always see a fairly healthy range of outcomes in the ensemble charts. But when you have decent sized clusters that diverge by 25+ degrees at 7 days, I think that's a fair indication that models are struggling with this pattern progression. That could be good or bad for us, but I think we can largely dismiss anyone who says the models are clearly showing a return to more of the same. I could be misremembering but I feel like there was similar model ambiguity during last January's monster ridge, and that one did eventually give way to a favorable blocking pattern for end of january and first third of february. I don't recall models nailing that very early.

uh oh...i use a lot of periods for emphasis too. am i dick mann????

Plus the SSW In January of ‘19 really was the culprit in the February haul.

EPS spaghetti is looking a bit fat in the belly. good jump in cold members as others have pointed out

Forgot the "..cliff" at the end