It's good to see. We have certainly waited long enough!
Non boring weather day today. We could see some snow showers and perhaps a snow squall.
n area of subsidence is expected late this morning through early
afternoon on the backside of the cold front, with the first mid-
level vort maxima exiting toward the southeast. Stronger CAA between
700mb-500mb will help to steepen mid-level lapse rates, meanwhile,
warming near the surface from insolation will begin to develop
modest instability. Over the past few CAM runs, 0-3km CAPE values
are progged to reach 80-100 J/kg just ahead of the cold front, and
in another area of stronger Q-vector convergence above 700mb.
Moisture will be limited, but model soundings continue to show
dendrite development with moisture being located within a favorable
DGZ. Couple that with the instability and a few sources of broad
scale lift, will be capable of generating snow showers, and some
likely to demonstrate convective behavior. A peak at simulated
reflectivity from CAM output hints at this, with banded snowfall
like features present. With winds around 30-35 kts toward the top of
the progged mixed layer, could result in snow shower bursts during
the afternoon with visibility dropping below one mile for short
periods of time. The background environment does provide some
suggestion for snow squall potential. However, the limited moisture
may prevent showers from achieving actual snow squall criteria.
Mesoanalysis will be important this afternoon to watch for changing
conditions. As for snowfall amounts, only a few tenths of an inch
are expected. With the gusty winds, getting an accurate measurement
anywhere will be very difficult. Further, daytime heating is
expected to boost surface temperatures into the upper 30s and lower
40s today, promoting melting that will also limit snow
accumulations. It is a bit odd to be talking about snow showers with
surface temperatures forecast this warm, but their occurrence is
likely given the strong forcing and instability that is expected. In
periods absent of snow shower activity, pressure gradient will be
quite strong with pressure falls extending southward toward Ozarks
region with dCVA heading toward the Interstate 44 corridor, while a
surface anticyclone attempts to develop over the High Plains. Wind
gusts above 25 MPH may continue into the evening hours. The cold
front eventually moves through the area late tonight, with drier air
eventually brining an end to snow activity