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Winter Outlook 2018-19

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#1
Front Ranger

Posted 14 November 2018 - 07:31 PM

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Factors considered: MEI, AMO, PDO, QBO, Solar, Fall Pattern

 

Factors weighted heaviest: MEI, Solar, Fall Pattern

 

MEI, AMO, PDO, and QBO are all in a neutral, weak, or transitory phase. Solar is in an unusually quiet phase, relative to the past 100 years.

 

As has been discussed on this forum at length, the number of analogs that check many boxes this year is very small. Therefore, this is a heavily blended analog forecast, using years that are very different in terms of some factors, but have some important commonalities in the factors I believe are most important this winter.

 

December

 

Strong signal for cold anomalies centered in the northern Plains/Rockies, likely extending to the PNW at times. Southwest looks near normal; very little in the way of warm anomalies for the country except perhaps the far southeast. Wetter than normal in the SE, northern plains/rockies, and probably CA. Drier than normal in the PNW (especially further north), and the central/southern plains.

 

January

 

Cold anomalies centered in the southern plains/lower Mississippi valley, with lesser cold extending across most of the West and the South. Near normal in the upper Midwest, and best chance of warm anomalies is in New England. As far as precipitation, the east coast looks wet and stormy, much of the midwest drier than normal along with the PNW and northern Rockies, and a little wetter than normal in the southwest.

 

February

 

Mixed signals this month, but leaning heavily towards cold for most of the East, and a decent chance of cold in the southern Rockies/Southwest. Northern Midwest and possibly the northern Rockies look like the most likely places to be warmer than normal. Most of the West should be drier than normal, along with the NE. Southern plains and the South look wet.

 

Overall

 

Everything I'm looking at points to a -EPO/-NAO/-AO winter. In other words, big-time blockiness in the high latitudes. This is mainly due to low solar and weak ENSO. I'm predicting the first -NAO winter since 2010-11. I also believe it will be the coldest winter nationally since at least 2013-14 (which was no slouch). Several major, record-breaking cold waves should impact most of the nation. I also expect most of Europe to experience a very cold and snowy winter due to a dominant -NAO feature.

 

The southern jet should be active in spurts, with a good chance of above normal precip for the winter in the Southwest, southern Rockies, and SE. Clashes with Arctic air dropping south should make for some big snowstorms, especially for the middle of the country. I expect the December pattern to be quite variable, but January and February could see stagnant patterns lock in for extended periods.

 

For the PNW: I think this will be a drier than normal winter overall, with no more than one wet month most places. Higher than normal chance of a major Arctic outbreak due to overall blockiness, even though the bulk of the cold should be centered well east. I think a very snowy winter is unlikely most places, especially higher elevations, perhaps something along the lines of 1984-85, 2000-01, 1978-79, or 1976-77 (very unlikely it will be quite that dry, of course). But with plenty of cold air over the continent to tap into, you never know...


  • TT-SEA, Chris, hawkstwelve and 4 others like this

Low. Solar.


#2
Black Hole

Posted 14 November 2018 - 08:04 PM

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Any specific comments for my area?

Nice outlook as always.


Winter 2018/2019

Nov 24: 3.3", 30: 1" (4.3") ::: Dec 2: 4.6", 3: .8", 5: .3", 12: 2.3", 21: .6", 24: 1.4", 25: 1.5", 26: 2.7", 27: 1.5", 30: .8" (16.5") ::: Jan 6: 2.7", 16: 1.1", 18: 1", 21: 5.6", 23: .4" (10.8") ::: Feb 5: 3.7", 6: 4.3", 7: 2.0", 10: 4.5", 15: 3.4", 19: 2.8" (20.7") ::: Mar 2: 3.0", 3: 2.3", 8: 3.2", 13: 6.0", 14: 1.1", 28: 1.2", 29: 3.9" (20.7") ::: April 10: .3", 12: 3" (3.3")

Total: 76.3"

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6" (12.3") ::: Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5" (13.8") ::: Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5" (18.6") ::: Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2" (24.3") ::: April 12: 1", 17: 1.3" (2.3")

Total: 69.3"

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14) ::: Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16) ::: Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5)  ::: Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5) ::: Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5) ::: Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8) ::: May 17: 1" (1)

Total: 96.3"


#3
AbbyJr

Posted 14 November 2018 - 08:39 PM

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Factors considered: MEI, AMO, PDO, QBO, Solar, Fall Pattern

 

Factors weighted heaviest: MEI, Solar, Fall Pattern

 

MEI, AMO, PDO, and QBO are all in a neutral, weak, or transitory phase. Solar is in an unusually quiet phase, relative to the past 100 years.

 

As has been discussed on this forum at length, the number of analogs that check many boxes this year is very small. Therefore, this is a heavily blended analog forecast, using years that are very different in terms of some factors, but have some important commonalities in the factors I believe are most important this winter.

 

December

 

Strong signal for cold anomalies centered in the northern Plains/Rockies, likely extending to the PNW at times. Southwest looks near normal; very little in the way of warm anomalies for the country except perhaps the far southeast. Wetter than normal in the SE, northern plains/rockies, and probably CA. Drier than normal in the PNW (especially further north), and the central/southern plains.

 

January

 

Cold anomalies centered in the southern plains/lower Mississippi valley, with lesser cold extending across most of the West and the South. Near normal in the upper Midwest, and best chance of warm anomalies is in New England. As far as precipitation, the east coast looks wet and stormy, much of the midwest drier than normal along with the PNW and northern Rockies, and a little wetter than normal in the southwest.

 

February

 

Mixed signals this month, but leaning heavily towards cold for most of the East, and a decent chance of cold in the southern Rockies/Southwest. Northern Midwest and possibly the northern Rockies look like the most likely places to be warmer than normal. Most of the West should be drier than normal, along with the NE. Southern plains and the South look wet.

 

Overall

 

Everything I'm looking at points to a -EPO/-NAO/-AO winter. In other words, big-time blockiness in the high latitudes. This is mainly due to low solar and weak ENSO. I'm predicting the first -NAO winter since 2010-11. I also believe it will be the coldest winter nationally since at least 2013-14 (which was no slouch). Several major, record-breaking cold waves should impact most of the nation. I also expect most of Europe to experience a very cold and snowy winter due to a dominant -NAO feature.

 

The southern jet should be active in spurts, with a good chance of above normal precip for the winter in the Southwest, southern Rockies, and SE. Clashes with Arctic air dropping south should make for some big snowstorms, especially for the middle of the country. I expect the December pattern to be quite variable, but January and February could see stagnant patterns lock in for extended periods.

 

For the PNW: I think this will be a drier than normal winter overall, with no more than one wet month most places. Higher than normal chance of a major Arctic outbreak due to overall blockiness, even though the bulk of the cold should be centered well east. I think a very snowy winter is unlikely most places, especially higher elevations, perhaps something along the lines of 1984-85, 2000-01, 1978-79, or 1976-77 (very unlikely it will be quite that dry, of course). But with plenty of cold air over the continent to tap into, you never know...

 

Very similar to my thoughts about the PNW. Likely ends up milder and drier then normal, but the chances of seeing a major arctic outbreak is higher than normal, with all the blockiness due to very low solar. If timing ends up right, could see a snow event. Just because we end up milder and drier than average, that doesn't mean a cold and snow event or two is out of the question. We will see but I think you have produced a very balanced forecast that has a good chance of verifying. Good job.  :D



#4
Front Ranger

Posted 14 November 2018 - 09:04 PM

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Any specific comments for my area?

Nice outlook as always.

 

I'd lean towards near normal to slightly below normal temps, above normal snowfall. You should definitely be doing better by January than you were last winter.


  • Black Hole likes this

Low. Solar.


#5
Phil

Posted 14 November 2018 - 09:05 PM

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Very nice and thought provoking work. Sounds like you’re expecting some serious ENSO influence this year.

FWIW, I think I agree with just about everything here except for the December part.

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#6
Front Ranger

Posted 14 November 2018 - 09:10 PM

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Very similar to my thoughts about the PNW. Likely ends up milder and drier then normal, but the chances of seeing a major arctic outbreak is higher than normal, with all the blockiness due to very low solar. If timing ends up right, could see a snow event. Just because we end up milder and drier than average, that doesn't mean a cold and snow event or two is out of the question. We will see but I think you have produced a very balanced forecast that has a good chance of verifying. Good job.  :D

 

Thanks. I do think this winter is more likely to end up below normal for most the PNW than above normal. But I doubt it's as cold as 2016-17...more likely similar to 2012-13 or 2010-11 in overall anomalies. 

 

A 1-2 week period of very cold weather that results in one month being pretty cold (most likely December) wouldn't shock me at all.


  • AbbyJr likes this

Low. Solar.


#7
Front Ranger

Posted 14 November 2018 - 09:17 PM

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Very nice and thought provoking work. Sounds like you’re expecting some serious ENSO influence this year.

FWIW, I think I agree with just about everything here except for the December part.

 

I think we'll see +ENSO influence at times, but not a raging southern jet like many of the big Ninos have. I do think precip anomalies across the country will be closer to typical +ENSO than -ENSO, with the southern plains and SE most likely to be wetter than normal.

 

What part about December do you see differently?


Low. Solar.


#8
AbbyJr

Posted 14 November 2018 - 09:20 PM

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Thanks. I do think this winter is more likely to end up below normal for most the PNW than above normal. But I doubt it's as cold as 2016-17...more likely similar to 2012-13 or 2010-11 in overall anomalies. 

 

A 1-2 week period of very cold weather that results in one month being pretty cold (most likely December) wouldn't shock me at all.

 

I hope your right. Can you promise me a December 2008 redux for the PNW?  :D  B)  ;) Or is that too much to ask?



#9
Phil

Posted 14 November 2018 - 09:29 PM

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I think we'll see +ENSO influence at times, but not a raging southern jet like many of the big Ninos have. I do think precip anomalies across the country will be closer to typical +ENSO than -ENSO, with the southern plains and SE most likely to be wetter than normal.

What part about December do you see differently?


Interesting. I’m thinking more of a warm north/cool south outcome for December when it’s all said and done.

But then again, I haven’t had a good read on this pattern at all, so it might be wise to take my thoughts with a grain of salt for the time being.

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#10
Black Hole

Posted 15 November 2018 - 05:27 PM

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I'd lean towards near normal to slightly below normal temps, above normal snowfall. You should definitely be doing better by January than you were last winter.

Certainly hope so. We need it. Most of the outlooks I see completely fry the west so I am glad yours is different. 


Winter 2018/2019

Nov 24: 3.3", 30: 1" (4.3") ::: Dec 2: 4.6", 3: .8", 5: .3", 12: 2.3", 21: .6", 24: 1.4", 25: 1.5", 26: 2.7", 27: 1.5", 30: .8" (16.5") ::: Jan 6: 2.7", 16: 1.1", 18: 1", 21: 5.6", 23: .4" (10.8") ::: Feb 5: 3.7", 6: 4.3", 7: 2.0", 10: 4.5", 15: 3.4", 19: 2.8" (20.7") ::: Mar 2: 3.0", 3: 2.3", 8: 3.2", 13: 6.0", 14: 1.1", 28: 1.2", 29: 3.9" (20.7") ::: April 10: .3", 12: 3" (3.3")

Total: 76.3"

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6" (12.3") ::: Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5" (13.8") ::: Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5" (18.6") ::: Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2" (24.3") ::: April 12: 1", 17: 1.3" (2.3")

Total: 69.3"

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14) ::: Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16) ::: Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5)  ::: Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5) ::: Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5) ::: Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8) ::: May 17: 1" (1)

Total: 96.3"


#11
Front Ranger

Posted 15 November 2018 - 10:25 PM

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Certainly hope so. We need it. Most of the outlooks I see completely fry the west so I am glad yours is different.


Either January or March seems likely to be the big month for you.

Low. Solar.


#12
snow_wizard

Posted 16 November 2018 - 01:32 AM

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Factors considered: MEI, AMO, PDO, QBO, Solar, Fall Pattern

 

Factors weighted heaviest: MEI, Solar, Fall Pattern

 

MEI, AMO, PDO, and QBO are all in a neutral, weak, or transitory phase. Solar is in an unusually quiet phase, relative to the past 100 years.

 

As has been discussed on this forum at length, the number of analogs that check many boxes this year is very small. Therefore, this is a heavily blended analog forecast, using years that are very different in terms of some factors, but have some important commonalities in the factors I believe are most important this winter.

 

December

 

Strong signal for cold anomalies centered in the northern Plains/Rockies, likely extending to the PNW at times. Southwest looks near normal; very little in the way of warm anomalies for the country except perhaps the far southeast. Wetter than normal in the SE, northern plains/rockies, and probably CA. Drier than normal in the PNW (especially further north), and the central/southern plains.

 

January

 

Cold anomalies centered in the southern plains/lower Mississippi valley, with lesser cold extending across most of the West and the South. Near normal in the upper Midwest, and best chance of warm anomalies is in New England. As far as precipitation, the east coast looks wet and stormy, much of the midwest drier than normal along with the PNW and northern Rockies, and a little wetter than normal in the southwest.

 

February

 

Mixed signals this month, but leaning heavily towards cold for most of the East, and a decent chance of cold in the southern Rockies/Southwest. Northern Midwest and possibly the northern Rockies look like the most likely places to be warmer than normal. Most of the West should be drier than normal, along with the NE. Southern plains and the South look wet.

 

Overall

 

Everything I'm looking at points to a -EPO/-NAO/-AO winter. In other words, big-time blockiness in the high latitudes. This is mainly due to low solar and weak ENSO. I'm predicting the first -NAO winter since 2010-11. I also believe it will be the coldest winter nationally since at least 2013-14 (which was no slouch). Several major, record-breaking cold waves should impact most of the nation. I also expect most of Europe to experience a very cold and snowy winter due to a dominant -NAO feature.

 

The southern jet should be active in spurts, with a good chance of above normal precip for the winter in the Southwest, southern Rockies, and SE. Clashes with Arctic air dropping south should make for some big snowstorms, especially for the middle of the country. I expect the December pattern to be quite variable, but January and February could see stagnant patterns lock in for extended periods.

 

For the PNW: I think this will be a drier than normal winter overall, with no more than one wet month most places. Higher than normal chance of a major Arctic outbreak due to overall blockiness, even though the bulk of the cold should be centered well east. I think a very snowy winter is unlikely most places, especially higher elevations, perhaps something along the lines of 1984-85, 2000-01, 1978-79, or 1976-77 (very unlikely it will be quite that dry, of course). But with plenty of cold air over the continent to tap into, you never know...

 

Yeah...1978-79 has been on my radar as well.  I think you're right about this being a dry winter.


  • seattleweatherguy and TigerWoodsLibido like this

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

 


#13
snow_wizard

Posted 16 November 2018 - 01:33 AM

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Certainly hope so. We need it. Most of the outlooks I see completely fry the west so I am glad yours is different. 

 

A torchy west is a lazy forecast IMO.


  • TigerWoodsLibido likes this

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

 


#14
ShawniganLake

Posted 16 November 2018 - 10:21 AM

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A torchy west is a lazy forecast IMO.

Are you making a forecast?

#15
AbbyJr

Posted 16 November 2018 - 10:30 AM

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A torchy west is a lazy forecast IMO.


I agree.

#16
Phil

Posted 16 November 2018 - 10:42 AM

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Yeah...1978-79 has been on my radar as well. I think you're right about this being a dry winter.


Did you mean to say 1977/78? Large scale, the NH pattern is much closer to resembling that vs 1978/79.

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#17
Front Ranger

Posted 17 November 2018 - 02:20 PM

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Did you mean to say 1977/78? Large scale, the NH pattern is much closer to resembling that vs 1978/79.


I assume he meant on a smaller scale for the conditions locally, as that's how I used it. A drier, cooler than average winter for the PNW.

Low. Solar.


#18
snow_wizard

Posted 23 November 2018 - 12:32 AM

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Are you making a forecast?

 

Nope.  Just a general one.  There are way too many conflicting signals this year to really make any detailed calls.  I do have a feeling the West won't torch though.  There could be one month that does, but the winter overall should be ok.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

 


#19
Front Ranger

Posted 12 March 2019 - 05:35 PM

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This outlook turned out to be crap, except the following bolded parts...  ;)

 

Overall

 

Everything I'm looking at points to a -EPO/-NAO/-AO winter. In other words, big-time blockiness in the high latitudes. This is mainly due to low solar and weak ENSO. I'm predicting the first -NAO winter since 2010-11. I also believe it will be the coldest winter nationally since at least 2013-14 (which was no slouch). Several major, record-breaking cold waves should impact most of the nation. I also expect most of Europe to experience a very cold and snowy winter due to a dominant -NAO feature.

 

The southern jet should be active in spurts, with a good chance of above normal precip for the winter in the Southwest, southern Rockies, and SE. Clashes with Arctic air dropping south should make for some big snowstorms, especially for the middle of the country. I expect the December pattern to be quite variable, but January and February could see stagnant patterns lock in for extended periods.

 

For the PNW: I think this will be a drier than normal winter overall, with no more than one wet month most places. Higher than normal chance of a major Arctic outbreak due to overall blockiness, even though the bulk of the cold should be centered well east. I think a very snowy winter is unlikely most places, especially higher elevations, perhaps something along the lines of 1984-85, 2000-01, 1978-79, or 1976-77 (very unlikely it will be quite that dry, of course). But with plenty of cold air over the continent to tap into, you never know...


Low. Solar.


#20
GHweatherChris

Posted 12 March 2019 - 05:45 PM

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This outlook turned out to be crap, except the following bolded parts... ;)

Overall


Everything I'm looking at points to a -EPO/-NAO/-AO winter. In other words, big-time blockiness in the high latitudes. This is mainly due to low solar and weak ENSO. I'm predicting the first -NAO winter since 2010-11. I also believe it will be the coldest winter nationally since at least 2013-14 (which was no slouch). Several major, record-breaking cold waves should impact most of the nation. I also expect most of Europe to experience a very cold and snowy winter due to a dominant -NAO feature.


The southern jet should be active in spurts, with a good chance of above normal precip for the winter in the Southwest, southern Rockies, and SE. Clashes with Arctic air dropping south should make for some big snowstorms, especially for the middle of the country. I expect the December pattern to be quite variable, but January and February could see stagnant patterns lock in for extended periods.


For the PNW: I think this will be a drier than normal winter overall, with no more than one wet month most places. Higher than normal chance of a major Arctic outbreak due to overall blockiness, even though the bulk of the cold should be centered well east. I think a very snowy winter is unlikely most places, especially higher elevations, perhaps something along the lines of 1984-85, 2000-01, 1978-79, or 1976-77 (very unlikely it will be quite that dry, of course). But with plenty of cold air over the continent to tap into, you never know...


#bold

#21
Black Hole

Posted 15 March 2019 - 11:10 AM

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Most official outlooks or supposed professionals over on AmericanWx were all certain the west would torch this winter as an ice age set in for the eastern US. It was nice to see those forecasts bust badly.


  • ShawniganLake likes this

Winter 2018/2019

Nov 24: 3.3", 30: 1" (4.3") ::: Dec 2: 4.6", 3: .8", 5: .3", 12: 2.3", 21: .6", 24: 1.4", 25: 1.5", 26: 2.7", 27: 1.5", 30: .8" (16.5") ::: Jan 6: 2.7", 16: 1.1", 18: 1", 21: 5.6", 23: .4" (10.8") ::: Feb 5: 3.7", 6: 4.3", 7: 2.0", 10: 4.5", 15: 3.4", 19: 2.8" (20.7") ::: Mar 2: 3.0", 3: 2.3", 8: 3.2", 13: 6.0", 14: 1.1", 28: 1.2", 29: 3.9" (20.7") ::: April 10: .3", 12: 3" (3.3")

Total: 76.3"

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6" (12.3") ::: Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5" (13.8") ::: Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5" (18.6") ::: Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2" (24.3") ::: April 12: 1", 17: 1.3" (2.3")

Total: 69.3"

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14) ::: Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16) ::: Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5)  ::: Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5) ::: Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5) ::: Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8) ::: May 17: 1" (1)

Total: 96.3"