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2019 California and Southwest Weather Discussion Thread

2019 california weather climate
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#151
Reg1992

Posted 13 February 2019 - 02:14 PM

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First wave of rain hit an hour ago, lasting for about one hour. I was driving in it when it got really heavy for a bit. I got 0.05" from it and it looks like there won't be much more activity for a while, judging by the doppler radar. Kinda disappointed so far.



My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 0.06" (as of 10/15/19)

 

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 


#152
Reg1992

Posted 13 February 2019 - 03:03 PM

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Ha, the NWS-San Diego's latest forecast discussion for the Inland Empire starts off with this:

Are you ready for some rain? A strong atmospheric river with PWATS satellite estimate nearly 2" just SW of the San Diego area attm. (...)


My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 0.06" (as of 10/15/19)

 

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 


#153
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 13 February 2019 - 05:24 PM

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Where is all the rain?
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#154
Reg1992

Posted 13 February 2019 - 05:42 PM

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Where is all the rain?

 

I agree, not much has happened since that frontal wave hit us around noon. It has been drizzling here for about half an hour now though, although it has not been measurable.

 

Doppler radar shows a large plume of moisture directed at San Diego County and northern Baja California, but nothing up here.



My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 0.06" (as of 10/15/19)

 

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 


#155
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 13 February 2019 - 06:08 PM

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It has started to rain lightly again.

#156
Reg1992

Posted 13 February 2019 - 07:02 PM

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Rain has become more steady and persistent here within the past hour. 0.08" now and slowly rising.



My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 0.06" (as of 10/15/19)

 

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 


#157
Reg1992

Posted 13 February 2019 - 07:20 PM

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Heavier rain hitting us now. Moisture plume appears to be slowly drifting north.

Nzr3uiE.png



My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 0.06" (as of 10/15/19)

 

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 


#158
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 13 February 2019 - 07:54 PM

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Since we're locked in a persistent trough pattern, someone downstream must be locked in a persistent ridge pattern. Stronger troughs and stronger ridges that persist for weeks or months seem to be a feature of climate change.

#159
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 13 February 2019 - 10:35 PM

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Rain has died down again.

#160
Reg1992

Posted 14 February 2019 - 12:24 AM

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0.39" ending at midnight and 0.03" since then.



My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 0.06" (as of 10/15/19)

 

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 


#161
Reg1992

Posted 14 February 2019 - 01:03 AM

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Very heavy rain just a minute ago.

 

DBAliw2.png



My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 0.06" (as of 10/15/19)

 

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 


#162
Reg1992

Posted 14 February 2019 - 02:26 AM

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Sustained heavy rainfall for over an hour at my location now. Already at 0.50" since midnight alone and quickly rising. Very loud outside.



My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 0.06" (as of 10/15/19)

 

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 


#163
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 14 February 2019 - 06:29 AM

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1.70" as of 5:15 AM for Lake Forest and still pouring out there.

#164
crf450ish

Posted 14 February 2019 - 06:35 AM

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My family and I are going to be moving to Phoenix in several months. Visited there many many times. Other than being hot most of the year, what other weather Dynamics can I look forward to? I ask simply because whenever we've been down there, we have been in vacation mode and it was just hot and sunny. Not much thought was put into weather observations.

#165
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 14 February 2019 - 06:54 AM

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2.67" for Lake Forest now, but the rain seems to be easing up a bit.



#166
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 14 February 2019 - 08:55 AM

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Up to 3.15" so far.
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#167
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 14 February 2019 - 09:10 AM

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Downtown L.A is getting very close to their annual average for precipitation.
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#168
Reg1992

Posted 14 February 2019 - 09:25 AM

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2.14" since midnight here, my backyard is underwater. My car's tires are half-submerged in a river of rainwater along the street. I keep having to edit my rain total while posting this because it is rising so rapidly. My manual rain gauge is approaching overflow levels.

 

More rain has fallen in the last 9 hours in Temecula (3.87") than during the entire rainy seasons of 2001-02 (3.87") and 2006-07 (3.75"). De Luz has recorded 4.25" since midnight. Stations here are beginning to exceed their entire season averages.


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My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 0.06" (as of 10/15/19)

 

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 


#169
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 14 February 2019 - 09:37 AM

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Even Palm Springs is over 2 inches.
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#170
Reg1992

Posted 14 February 2019 - 09:38 AM

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My family and I are going to be moving to Phoenix in several months. Visited there many many times. Other than being hot most of the year, what other weather Dynamics can I look forward to? I ask simply because whenever we've been down there, we have been in vacation mode and it was just hot and sunny. Not much thought was put into weather observations.

 

Aside from the heat, that part of Arizona is often subject to monsoonal moisture during the summer months. I admit I'm not familiar with Phoenix's weather nearly as much however. Won't get particularly cold due to its relative low elevation (compared to the higher deserts).


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My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 0.06" (as of 10/15/19)

 

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 


#171
Eujunga

Posted 14 February 2019 - 09:48 AM

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You guys down south are really getting pounded.  Heavy shower here for a total of 1.30" on the day, 1.65" for the storm.

 

Just need a couple more inches to have the first double-digit rain month since January 2008.


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Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#172
Reg1992

Posted 14 February 2019 - 10:15 AM

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You guys down south are really getting pounded.  Heavy shower here for a total of 1.30" on the day, 1.65" for the storm.

 

Just need a couple more inches to have the first double-digit rain month since January 2008.

 

December 2010 was also very wet, we had 12.18" that month. 

 

Temecula is approaching the record daily rainfall for the station (records date back to 1999). The record is currently held by 4.23" on November 30th, 2007. Temecula right now has 4.02" and it's only 10 AM. I'm at 2.20" since midnight.



My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 0.06" (as of 10/15/19)

 

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 


#173
Reg1992

Posted 14 February 2019 - 12:11 PM

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KSOX and KNKX radars are down for me right now. Currently getting hit by an absolute onslaught of heavy rain.

 

2.45" since midnight and rising



My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 0.06" (as of 10/15/19)

 

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 


#174
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 14 February 2019 - 12:32 PM

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Downtown L.A. over their annual average now. 3.89" for Lake Forest so far.



#175
Reg1992

Posted 14 February 2019 - 03:21 PM

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For the first time today, the rain has stopped.



My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 0.06" (as of 10/15/19)

 

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 


#176
Bonk

Posted 14 February 2019 - 03:33 PM

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Modjeska Canyon has had 4.13" in the last 12 hrs. and 5.20" in the last 24 hrs.

 

Santiago Creek, which runs behind my house, is raging.


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#177
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 14 February 2019 - 03:41 PM

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Rain has stopped and sun might come out.

#178
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 14 February 2019 - 05:44 PM

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December 2010 was also very wet, we had 12.18" that month. 

 

I remember that one. I think it rained pretty much non-stop for 5 days with the atmospheric river with a very strong cold front as the grand finale.


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#179
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 14 February 2019 - 08:51 PM

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Only 1.06" for San Diego, but the Coachella Valley got hammered with more than 3.5 inches of rain at Palm Springs Airport. So much for the less than one inch forecast for Coachella Valley.

Looks like the atmospheric river has migrated south of the border and weakened.

After the rain stopped today I walked my dog and went to Serrano Creek Park, which is right near my house. A huge eucalyptus had fallen being completely uprooted and bent a road sign. However the creek was not as high as I had expected it to be after nearly 4 inches of rain.

The biggest storm we ever had dropped 7 inches of rain in a few hours and it literally sounded like a waterfall outside. You could not hear the drops. That storm washed away a huge chunk of sidewalk from the park and the creek was probably 10-20 feet over its regular level.


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#180
Reg1992

Posted 14 February 2019 - 09:11 PM

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I remember that one. I think it rained pretty much non-stop for 5 days with the atmospheric river with a very strong cold front as the grand finale.

 

2010-11 remains the wettest rainy season of the 2010s, owing primarily to that month. 2016-17 was decent though too. All other seasons were below-average to some degree, although now 2018-19 can be excluded from that list. The 2010s as a whole was our driest decade since the 1940s. The last truly "epic" rainy season was 2004-05, I wonder when we'll see a top-tier rainy season anything like that ever again. (other examples being 1997-98, 1982-83, 1977-78)

 

I wonder - a vaguely weak El Nino pattern has established itself in the equatorial Pacific region this winter (official as of today); could this be our first El Nino in over a decade to actually deliver, even partially?

 

My precipitation charts for 2017-18 and 2018-19 as of today. Compare the total absence of activity during most of 2017-18 to the vibrant activity in 2018-19 so far:

 

y8I0zxo.png


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My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 0.06" (as of 10/15/19)

 

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 


#181
Eujunga

Posted 15 February 2019 - 09:31 AM

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Some crazy rain totals yesterday in the southern mountains -- over 8" at Big Bear and 10" at Palomar. 

 

GFS coming around to the solution the ECMWF has been showing for a while with a couple of shots of very cold air, one on Sunday and the other next Thursday.  GFS hints at yet another cold shot at around 10 days out, although the operational is colder than most of the ensemble members.  In a perfect world, these troughs would dig just a little farther west so we'd have more precipitation with low snow levels.

 

I just missed a double digit rainfall total in December 2010 with 9.80".  My wettest month ever remains January 1995 with 20.31".  An AR event just parked over us with the orientation optimized for efficient rain production at my location.


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Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#182
Eujunga

Posted 15 February 2019 - 04:31 PM

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If current forecasts hold, this could end up being a month in which every single day scores a negative temperature departure in Downtown L.A.  It's almost impossible to overstate how unusual this is, especially in the last decade or so.  Only a handful of months in the last 6-7 years have achieved ANY sort of negative average temperature departure.


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Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#183
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 15 February 2019 - 05:52 PM

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I received 3.29" here in Orange from the storm on Wednesday / Thursday. The AR really delivered some serious rains to most of Orange County, especially in areas in and near the Santa Ana Mountains where orographic lifting was in full force.



#184
Reg1992

Posted 15 February 2019 - 07:14 PM

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Rain has resumed here about an hour ago (I was caught in it driving). 0.03"



My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 0.06" (as of 10/15/19)

 

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 


#185
Reg1992

Posted 15 February 2019 - 11:33 PM

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0.09" now. Another line of showers is approaching Orange County right now, maybe we'll hear from Mr Marine Layer and Dan about it:

 

LtCEnT6.png



My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 0.06" (as of 10/15/19)

 

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 


#186
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 16 February 2019 - 02:06 AM

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It has been raining lightly here in Orange since just before dark with some moderate bursts mixed in. It has stopped now, though, and is likely done for tonight, unless a few showers on the Central Coast make it down into the area in the early morning hours.



#187
Reg1992

Posted 16 February 2019 - 02:29 AM

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That same band of rain that affected Orange County earlier just passed over us, but barely did anything. I got 0.01" from it.

 

I noticed that a lot of the NWS weather stations around Southern California that broke daily precipitation records on Thursday, the old record for that day was usually set on the same day in 1980. I went back and checked Downtown L.A.'s precipitation for that year and 1979-80 was quite wet. Nine consecutive days of rain, most of them very wet. Talk about your "atmospheric river":

 

Yf8ott2.png


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My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 0.06" (as of 10/15/19)

 

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 


#188
Eujunga

Posted 16 February 2019 - 09:06 AM

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That same band of rain that affected Orange County earlier just passed over us, but barely did anything. I got 0.01" from it.

 

I noticed that a lot of the NWS weather stations around Southern California that broke daily precipitation records on Thursday, the old record for that day was usually set on the same day in 1980. I went back and checked Downtown L.A.'s precipitation for that year and 1979-80 was quite wet. Nine consecutive days of rain, most of them very wet. Talk about your "atmospheric river":

 

Your post got me to thinking about February 1980, and I vaguely remembered that I may have written down daily rain totals for Claremont, where I was living at the time.  I went through some old notebooks and sure enough, I found it!  The amounts are approximate, as I was just going off a garden rain gauge, but they show how ridiculous the rain amounts were.  I don't think the term "Atmospheric River" had been invented yet.  The TV weathermen (like Dr. George Fischbeck) just called them "Pacific storms."

 

I commuting to college at the time, and remember being stranded several times at flooded intersections when my car ignition would get wet.  Good times!

 

1980-0001.jpg


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Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#189
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 16 February 2019 - 04:19 PM

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Lots more sunshine today giving things a chance to temporarily dry off.



#190
Reg1992

Posted 16 February 2019 - 08:37 PM

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I expect rain to arrive here around or just after midnight.



My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 0.06" (as of 10/15/19)

 

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 


#191
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 17 February 2019 - 03:23 AM

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0.19" fell here in Orange with the little storm that came through yesterday (Friday).

 

The air quality was quite spectacular today with all the recent storms, and it was the sunniest day we have had in a while!



#192
Eujunga

Posted 17 February 2019 - 08:40 AM

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Was just looking at the Downtown L.A. monthly average temperature listings.

 

The last time Downtown L.A. recorded a month that was cooler than average by even a fraction of a degree was in December 2015.  Or, put another way, every single month in the last 3+ years has been warmer than average.

 

The last time a month was more than 1ºF cooler than average was in December 2012.

 

February 2019 is on track to be the first month in over 6 years to be more than 1ºF cooler than average, and the coolest month relative to average in at least 7 years (February 2019 currently running a -3.86º departure; depending on how the month finishes out, December 2011, at -3.18º, may still beat it).

 

That really helps put the magnitude of the recent warm trend into perspective for me.


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Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#193
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 17 February 2019 - 10:12 AM

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During our drought with the very warm winters, the polar vortex split was over the eastern half of the country. This year it has finally been focused on the western half of the country.

No rain overnight from the 2nd wave and it is still pretty nice outside before the 3rd wave comes through this afternoon and tonight.

#194
Reg1992

Posted 17 February 2019 - 02:03 PM

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We didn't get any rain last night nor this morning, but rain has finally started as of 10 minutes ago.



My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 0.06" (as of 10/15/19)

 

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 


#195
Reg1992

Posted 17 February 2019 - 02:53 PM

Reg1992

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Not sure what the KNKX radar is smoking since it shows heavy rain directly on top of me, even though it's currently sunny here.



My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 0.06" (as of 10/15/19)

 

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 


#196
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 17 February 2019 - 08:40 PM

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Very cold and windy afternoon with occasional light rain showers. We seem to have been relocated to the Pacific Northwest.

#197
Reg1992

Posted 17 February 2019 - 09:28 PM

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A few more showers this evening, and a lot of wind. The most recent shower occurred while it was 44F here. 0.05" for today



My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 0.06" (as of 10/15/19)

 

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 


#198
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 18 February 2019 - 02:52 PM

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Still looking quite stormy towards the mountains.

Attached File  20190218_145054.jpg   124.51KB   0 downloads
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#199
Reg1992

Posted 18 February 2019 - 03:41 PM

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Just got very dark and cloudy over here.

 

We're currently being hit by a strong gust front in the Temecula Valley. Sustained 25mph winds at my house for the last 5 minutes. Some light rain as well, blowing sideways.



My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 0.06" (as of 10/15/19)

 

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 


#200
Reg1992

Posted 18 February 2019 - 03:56 PM

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Temperature just plummeted from 52F to 45F and still falling. Wind chill is 39F. Mean-looking clouds above us, but sunny to the west.


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My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 0.06" (as of 10/15/19)

 

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 






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