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Has nothing to do with that. The picture and the grass hut comments were in pretty bad taste.

Nope. I think it is much more likely that you, me, Matt, Chris, Phil, Winterdog, Flatiron, Jim and others are all mistaking. People who have all known Tim for years. That seems far more plausible.

You're making him have surgery because it's supposed to rain? Sick.

No, the snow out in the Panhandle of nebraska is reaching the ground believe it or not!

I believe he also chased Andrew from the womb, got some good footage.

LOL @ this zone forecast for the Cape. (just in case you were planning to go out on your lunch break I guess.. ): ..winds "decreasing" in the pm. Gotta love the break-down so you can time your jeb walk. Just say zone fcast = stay the f*ck inside idiots!

About the fact that your ulterior motive has always been to upset Jim, Jesse, and anyone who enjoys colder than average weather. At least that's what it looks like to me. Almost like you're being intentionally transparent so everyone knows it while giving yourself enough room to wiggle away in the process, driving your critics over the edge of sanity while you sit back and laugh. That about right?

Monday looks like an amazing day for the Seattle area. Clearing skies with north winds and highs in the upper 50s and lows in the low to mid 40s for SEA. The ensemble mean for the next two weeks is notably cooler than earlier runs also.

Gust to 59 at Forks in the past hour. That will probably beat a lot of places in Florida. Fall has definitely arrived. Pretty interesting how it suddenly appears there will be a window of opportunity for clear / chilly nights next week now. With that northern branch becoming stronger on each run we might manage some frost in places.

You're not hiding anything, you're just lying to yourself

I don't see it. Unless Hillary is hanging out in a dinghy off Cape Canaveral.

We are going to die. Might as well go out during a notable weather event!

Shocking! Narcissists usually have that issue.

That's true. Reconstructing based on storm surge and tree damage in wooded areas only goes so far.

0 dead

Gets pretty hard to assess anything before satellites and actual recon data. Kind of a dart throwing exercise with regards to the intensity of many pre-1960s storms. NHC reanalysis has done the best that it can but there's lots of uncertainty. Even a relatively recent storm like Audrey (1957) for example, was found to be way weaker in reanalysis than was originally estimated. I have to imagine there are lots of similar cases.

Power outages up to about 10 000 on Vancouver island. Pretty good SE wind going.

Dewey hit it on the head. Whatever. Most on here see right through it no matter the amount of spin you try. Its all good, keep on keeping on..... whatever helps your conscience.

More importantly...both of the following winters delivered lowland snowstorms/Arctic air to the PNW!

I actually have been thinking the last few days that the Tim of old seemed genuine and organic as annoying as it was, this new version feels forced and fake. And obviously now I am not the only one that feels that way.

Yeah, that was in awful taste. Par for the course for a white supremacist.

My prayers are with the Haitian people

There are 283 people dead in Haiti, and we're making jokes about grass huts?

Wow. You sound like me! Of course, you are completely right. Born again "reformed" Tim is almost even harder to stomach than the more blatant asshat Tim of old. At least with that one you felt like you were getting the real deal. He is simply a collection of passive-aggressive smiley's and forced seeming small talk-esque banter these days. Embarrassing is the right word for it. Especially since everyone sees right through the act.

Start following your own advice. Everyone, their brother and twin sister knows GOA troughing is in our near future. You were just Jim-pricking up the place as usual. This calling-it-as-I-see-it act is embarrassing.

And historically the U.S. only sees a landfalling Cat 4 about once per decade. Charley was the last one, Matthew could be the first one since. Only thee Cat 5 landfalls in the country's recorded history.

0z trends much cooler Sunday and Monday now. Thicknesses drop to 546 and 850s to 3C over Seattle. A far cry from what looked like a torch a couple of days ago.

Heads up, buttercup. The dry season is coming to an end. Only 6-7 months before it returns.

A fairly convective lil storm I'd say even though it doesn't have a wound up SLP. Hope we can track stronger storms as such going forward.

Frost advisory here in central Nebraska. Forecast low is 31. We have had falling temps all day and now at 42 degrees with north winds gusting to 40 mph. Has a November feel, loving it. 5 inches of snow reported south of Valentine Nebraska (northwest part of the state).

If you go and are able to snap some before/after pictures up East Beach way, I would love to see them. I went there every summer as a kid, and we rented a house on 13th St, one or 2 houses back from the beach. I've gone back for a couple of family reunions there as an adult (and after I moved out West) and we stayed in an A-frame house right on the beach that was on 12th st... One of our favorite things to do as kids was to walk the beach and look at how it changed. Looking at Google Maps, the rock wall along that section of beach appears to be buried, and there is not much in the way of sand dunes.....not good...

Global Oscillations Update. I've noticed with literally every run, it keeps pushing the positive spikes further and further away. Continued indications to me that all the major players are here, just waiting on the game to start. AO NAO EPO PNA The possibility I'm leaning towards with the PNA and EPO is that they really don't ever actually spike that high when all is said and done while still easing the N PAC low towards the west coast long enough to pile siberian air up to the northwest. Ridging should return to the west coast and eastern Alaska sending the Aleutian low back to its "correct"(best) location around week 3 or close to the last week of October. When that happens, conditions are going to change dramatically. CFS has picked up on hints of this at times for the opening weeks of November but loses it into its typical torch mode in the rest of the winter months. I think fun times are ahead for the patient ones. :-)

Hurricane Floyd was 1999. Weren't you like 6 or 7 then? And I have trouble picturing you flying down as a 12 or 13 year old in 2005 to chase Tammy and Katrina...

While there is a hurricane ready to make landfall, this is occurring out in western nebraska....... Alliance, Alliance Municipal Airport (KAIA)Lat: 42.06°NLon: 102.8°WElev: 3927ft.http://forecast.weather.gov/newimages/large/sn.pngLight Snow Fog/Mist 33°F 1°C Humidity 96% Wind Speed N 8 mph Barometer 30.12 in (1020.7 mb) Dewpoint 32°F (0°C) Visibility 1.25 mi Wind Chill 26°F (-3°C) Last update 6 Oct 10:49 am MDT

Alliance, Alliance Municipal Airport (KAIA)Lat: 42.06°NLon: 102.8°WElev: 3927ft. http://forecast.weather.gov/newimages/large/sn.pngLight Snow Fog/Mist 33°F 1°C Humidity 96% Wind Speed N 8 mph Barometer 30.12 in (1020.7 mb) Dewpoint 32°F (0°C) Visibility 1.25 mi Wind Chill 26°F (-3°C) Last update 6 Oct 10:49 am MDT

How can you forget a winter like that, right?!

3.8F in Tok this morning just before sunrise. That's pretty cold for them this time of year.

Love your maps Niko. Remember seeing map after map all showing us getting favored for above normal snow and couldn't help but be a bit giddy at the potential even though I hadn't fully recovered from the early forecast debacle of winter 2011-12. Marshall region hadn't scored a 15"(+) storm since Jan of '99 but we scored an 18" (top 5) storm Jan 6th 2014! That winter I really logged my daily snowfall and I sure was a busy guy

Forgot my password for the other one and was drinking one night and came up with train wreck. I was thinking of my ex at the time lol.

What a gorgeous day is was here in SEMI. It will continue all week, Thank goodness I did not adjust the AC to Heat in my home. I think I'll wait another week or 2.

That's exactly the precip pattern I want to see for DJF.