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January 2016 in the PNW


crf450ish

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Looks like my house is currently getting quite the squall line. My work is just north of it, but I can see the wall of black as I look south.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Looks like you're gonna have to hold your breath until the 4pm obs.

 

This coming from the person who attacked anyone who said anything good about the last 2 summers and falls.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Nice punch of dry air... its really a great afternoon outside of a nasty c-zone up near Everett.     Lots of sunshine all over thanks to such strong flow aloft.  

 

http://s12.postimg.org/h7f1ucbod/VIS1_SEA.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Feels like spring

 

 

Yes it does.   And looks like spring as well.   You can see the south side of the c-zone towards Everett.

 

http://s12.postimg.org/a6dqfpmot/seattle20.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Not sure if I posted this here or if it's been discussed already but this is from a professor here at the U. It's pretty incredible how well snoqualmie can hold onto cold air for. 

 

http://wasatchweatherweenies.blogspot.com/2015/10/top-10-ski-area-microclimates.html

 

Already snowing again at Crystal, and it is back down to 32 degrees up at Stevens Pass. Despite the warm weather, this has been an awesome season in the mountains. 

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Matt is probably going to be right with his prediction for February.   Mark says the ECMWF weeklies show ridging for the entire month.   

 

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2016/01/28/ecmwf-monthly-run-maps-3/

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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No 60 at PDX!    Got that out of the way.    Now primed to start another long streak.    Sometimes its better to break it up so the pressure is off!   Like the Panthers losing one game so they did not have to go into the playoffs at 16-0 and trying to preserve some ridiculous streak.   :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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No 60 at PDX!    Got that out of the way.    Now primed to start another long streak.    Sometimes its better to break it up so the pressure is off!   Like the Panthers losing one game so they did not have to go into the playoffs at 16-0 and trying to preserve some ridiculous streak.   :)

Well they were on a 12 game winning streak, then the Canucks beat them to prevent a 13 game winning streak, and then they have sucked since then.

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Well they were on a 12 game winning streak, then the Canucks beat them to prevent a 13 game winning streak, and then they have sucked since then.

 

 

What are you talking about?   The Canucks beat the Carolina Panthers in football?   Impressive feat!  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Not the full post yet but here is a summary:

 

March - May will be quite warm and drier than average.   Not dry of course... but drier than average.

 

June will be cooler and wetter than normal.

 

Then July - October will be warmer and drier than normal.   September will be a blowtorch.

 

The summers of 2014 and 2015 will not be challenged for warmth.    But it will probably be a top 10 warm spring - fall period.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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A March and April like 2003, a May like 1977, a June like 2010, a July and August like 1983, and then a return of 2010 in September.

 

Post Nino special.

 

 

Nice try... but no.     And 2003 was a great summer and fall.      Maybe this year will be a combination of 1958 and 1992.   :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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A March and April like 2003, a May like 1977, a June like 2010, a July and August like 1983, and then a return of 2010 in September.

 

Post Nino special.

Mark mentioned 1983 was a decent analog for the summer. That would be awesome.

 

Or we could put together a hybrid of the warmest years possible that is sure to drive Jim nuts! That is also a very viable analog producing method. :lol:

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I made similar posts in 2013, 2014, 2015 and people said my forecast was totally wrong.

 

I am still seeing all the signs pointing to another warm summer again this year.   2017 and probably 2018 will be cooler.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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