January 2016 in the PNW

[Jesse]

I think the late-January 925mb temp fluctuations have more to do with the nature of this airmass than the warming of the sun.

[Jesse]

Week two is now looking pretty ridgy. I had a feeling things might continue to shift eastward. Nino climo. Although sun angle *may* be playing a role.

[TT-SEA]

I think the late-January 925mb temp fluctuations have more to do with the nature of this airmass than the warming of the sun.

Could be true. That is a good point.

 

I unblocked you so I can see your posts firsthand and maybe communicate better.

[TT-SEA]

I think if you look at those maps you posted for tomorrow, you will find areas that have cooled during the afternoon frame.  Notably, the Oregon coast, and parts of SW BC.

With precip?

[Jesse]

Could be true. That is a good point.

 

I unblocked you so I can see your posts and maybe communicate better.

 

I appreciate you extending the olive branch. It's not good to hold grudges. 

 

That said, I will consider it. Although I fear more open communication between us will only end up leading to bickering, ultimately.

[TT-SEA]

I appreciate you extending the olive branch. It's not good to hold grudges. 

 

That said, I will consider it. Although I fear more open communication between us will only end up leading to bickering, ultimately.

We both HATE Trump!

[ShawniganLake]

With precip?

I would say "increased precip coverage".  Its obviously a pretty showery air mass

 

The sticking snow level dropped a little below 1000ft here last night.  Not much precip though and a little too high to do me any good.  I would think that you would likely at least be seeing snow in the air if precip was occurring.  I am sure you know your area better than anyone, though. 

[TT-SEA]

I would say "increased precip coverage".  Its obviously a pretty showery air mass

 

The sticking snow level dropped a little below 1000ft here last night.  Not much precip though and a little too high to do me any good.  I would think that you would likely at least be seeing snow in the air if precip was occurring.  I am sure you know your area better than anyone, though.

 

Thinking ice pellets or non-sticking snow the next two evenings.

 

It was just raining here a little while ago.

[TT-SEA]

12Z Canadian... models sure agree on a very amplified pattern in the mid and long range at least.  Amplified is usually enjoyable any way you slice it.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

[TT-SEA]

Anyone have a site with daily observations from 1860-1899?

 

I know there was some site that had Portland records back to 1878 but I can't find it.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF has precip really focused tomorrow in the North Sound and SE VI and then also in NW OR and its pretty cold at the 850mb level.   

 

If the precip shown is convective in nature then someone up around Bellingham and Victoria and down around Portland and the Coast Range could see snow even during the day.

 

The Seattle area is shown to be pretty much dry all day tomorrow.  

[ShawniganLake]

12Z ECMWF has precip really focused tomorrow in the North Sound and SE VI and then also in NW OR and its pretty cold at the 850mb level.   

 

If the precip shown is convective in nature then someone up around Bellingham and Victoria and down around Portland and the Coast Range could see snow even during the day.

 

The Seattle area is shown to be pretty much dry all day tomorrow.  

I like the sounds of that. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12Z ECMWF has precip really focused tomorrow in the North Sound and SE VI and then also in NW OR and its pretty cold at the 850mb level.   

 

If the precip shown is convective in nature then someone up around Bellingham and Victoria and down around Portland and the Coast Range could see snow even during the day.

 

The Seattle area is shown to be pretty much dry all day tomorrow.  

 

That sounds similar to the NAM. GFS drops that energy mostly offshore and into SW Oregon.

[epiceast]

12Z Canadian... models sure agree on a very amplified pattern in the mid and long range at least.  Amplified is usually enjoyable any way you slice it.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

Only because you live 700 or so feet above the valley floor. Most of the town dwellers live along rivers that get chilly foggy weather when the ridge is overhead or very slightly to the west.

[epiceast]

12Z ECMWF has precip really focused tomorrow in the North Sound and SE VI and then also in NW OR and its pretty cold at the 850mb level.   

 

If the precip shown is convective in nature then someone up around Bellingham and Victoria and down around Portland and the Coast Range could see snow even during the day.

 

The Seattle area is shown to be pretty much dry all day tomorrow.  

Can I get a link? Seems like I have to wait until Monday to see snow here this morning's shower event didn't pan out.

[TT-SEA]

Only because you live 700 or so feet above the valley floor. Most of the town dwellers live along rivers that get chilly foggy weather when the ridge is overhead or very slightly to the west.

Probably not in the second week of February. Inversion season is waning. Most of the area would be sunny in that set up with good offshore flow and a dry air mass.

[epiceast]

Just found Euro maps... Places about 20 miles north of here might pick up an inch tonight.

[TT-SEA]

Just found Euro maps... Places about 20 miles north of here might pick up an inch tonight.

 

Are you using Wundermap?  I was just about to link you.   

[snow_wizard]

We still have a lot of uncertainty the 0z ECMWF parallel was quite cold.  This model has been quite good on a number of occasions.  Nino climo certainly says the warmer solutions are the most likely, but the cold scenario is not off the table.

[snow_wizard]

I think the late-January 925mb temp fluctuations have more to do with the nature of this airmass than the warming of the sun.

 

It seems like the power of the sun gets greater and earlier every year.  Some of our greatest cold snaps of all time have come in very early Feb.  The sun must have been dimmer back then.

[TT-SEA]

It seems like the power of the sun gets greater and earlier every year.  Some of our greatest cold snaps of all time have come in very early Feb.  The sun must have been dimmer back then.

 

 

No... the air masses were just much colder and rendered sun angle irrelevant.     Its much more noticeable with a marginal air mass now.    Go back to December when we had a similar air mass and watch the change from morning to afternoon at the 925mb level.   And then run through the WRF maps this morning.  Even Montana and Idaho swing much more now.  Its just a fact.   It has nothing to do with what happened in 1950 or 1916 or any other time.   Obviously a little warming each day with a -25C air mass is pretty meaningless.   But with this air mass the 925mb level goes back and forth between below freezing and above freezing depending on the time of day.    

[epiceast]

Are you using Wundermap?  I was just about to link you.   

 

Are you using Wundermap?  I was just about to link you.   

Yea. I guess the 700' is not really true in middle of February, but it's still possible until march that most of us get stuck in an inversion. At least I don't live at the bottom of Columbia Basin now, probably the most foggy/inverted area in PNW.

[epiceast]

No... the air masses were just much colder and rendered sun angle irrelevant.     Its much more noticeable with a marginal air mass now.    Go back to December when we had a similar air mass and watch the change from morning to afternoon at the 925mb level.   And then run through the WRF maps this morning.  Even Montana and Idaho swing much more now.  Its just a fact.   It has nothing to do with what happened in 1950 or 1916 or any other time.   Obviously a little warming each day with a -25C air mass is pretty meaningless.   But with this air mass the 925mb level goes back and forth between below freezing and above freezing depending on the time of day.    

Snow and/or Fog on the ground helps too. It got down 5 degrees the night after a big dump in December 16th here with no upper level support, I think 850mb temps were probably not even below -5C... It was in the teens in Spokane because there was hardly any snow. Spokane's climate is also much better at producing very cold lows.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/climate/monthdisp.php?stn=KPUW&year=2015&mon=12&wfo=otx

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/climate/monthdisp.php?stn=KGEG&year=2015&mon=12&wfo=otx

[TT-SEA]

I went back and looked at post Nino years all the way back to 1897.    I would love to also look at 1878 and 1889.   

 

A few things really jump out:

 

In the low solar phase back in the late 1800s and early 1900s our climate was really enjoyable.    It looks like the patterns were just more amplified based on the observations.    Many springs and summers were downright spectacular and warm.    And winters featured many more dry periods and cold air intrusions.

 

Looking ahead there are some strong signals based on history:

• Very good chance we are going to have a truly warm spring this year.   March and April could be ridiculously warm.    Its almost a given to have warmth in that period in every year that I reviewed.    And in many years... February featured an amplified pattern and drier weather.
• There will likely be a wetter and cooler period in late May through mid June.
• The rest of summer will likely be very warm and dry.   
• Some sort of arctic event with snow is very likely next January.  

[Jesse]

I feel sorry for places in the midwest like Chicago whose wintertime sun angle minimum is similar to what we are experiencing now. How do they ever get cold there??

[TT-SEA]

I feel sorry for places in the midwest like Chicago whose wintertime sun angle minimum is similar to what we are experiencing now. How do they ever get cold there??

 

 

Really cold air masses from the arctic.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is colder for next weekend.   Might be a shot of cold and some lowland snow before the ridge builds in over us.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2016013012!!chart.gif

[epiceast]

12Z ECMWF is colder for next weekend.   Might be a shot of cold and some lowland snow before the ridge builds in over us.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2016013012!!chart.gif

Walking on a very fine line here...

[HighlandExperience]

12Z ECMWF is colder for next weekend. Might be a shot of cold and some lowland snow before the ridge builds in over us.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2016013012!!chart.gif

All I'm asking for is one legit day or two of snow and I'm good.

[snow_wizard]

No doubt the models are really struggling with ridge placement for week two.  The ECMWF freshens up the cold air mass at day 8 and then a ridge locks the chill in over us.  Should be some good minimum temps coming up if it verifes.

[TT-SEA]

All I'm asking for is one legit day or two of snow and I'm good.

 

Where do you live?

[snow_wizard]

All I'm asking for is one legit day or two of snow and I'm good.

 

Anything other than a torch is good considering the ENSO.  The next few winters will be our time to shine.  No doubt as far as the NW is concerned the Puget Sound region is the area most due to score big.   These things always even out.

[TT-SEA]

No doubt the models are really struggling with ridge placement for week two.  The ECMWF freshens up the cold air mass at day 8 and then a ridge locks the chill in over us.  Should be some good minimum temps coming up if it verifes.

 

I agree with this and posted the map from next Sunday above.  Pretty good shot of cold air on Sunday going into the ridge.    That is a good recipe for cold nights.

[HighlandExperience]

Where do you live?

Issaquah highlands. Pretty close all the high density development.

[snow_wizard]

The whole sun angle debate seems absurd to me before mid February or so.  The sun angle is still the same as it is in late November.  Normally most of November is considered inversion season.

[TT-SEA]

Anything other than a torch is good considering the ENSO.  The next few winters will be our time to shine.  No doubt as far as the NW is concerned the Puget Sound region is the area most due to score big. 

 

 

In the low solar period in the late 1800s and early 1900s it seemed like amplification during February during Nino winters was a more frequent occurrence..    Dry weather and cold nights seemed to be commonplace in Nino Februaries back then.

[TT-SEA]

The whole sun angle debate seems absurd to me before mid February or so.  The sun angle is still the same as it is in late November.  Normally most of November is considered inversion season.

 

Dewey says inversion season is mid November to late January.   Roughly 6 weeks on either side of the solstice.

 

Sun angle today is the same as November 10th.

[snow_wizard]

I'm really liking how the models are showing the Maritime Continent MJO wave taking it's sweet time to move out during Feb.  Should be time to really damage the Nino as SOI values have already risen quite a bit.

[TT-SEA]

Issaquah highlands. Pretty close all the high density development.

OK... love that area and the view up there is insane!

[BLI snowman]

Dewey says inversion season is mid November to late January.   Roughly 6 weeks on either side of the solstice.

 

Sun angle today is the same as November 10th.

 

Western WA's inversion i.e. "fake cold" season definitely includes late October and early February. Did you forget the prolonged fog episode in October 2013?