jaster220 Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 WRF NMM http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmmb/00/hrw-nmmb_conus_046_sim_radar.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmmb/00/hrw-nmmb_conus_048_precip_p48.gif Nice! A little speck of 1.5" qpf over mby. Now if it's not 5:1 cement all will be well and good.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 00z Euro/EPS/Control... 06z GFS as well... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 We have to watch and see how much warm air gets involved with this system. Any slight movements in track can really change the forecast. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 We have to watch and see how much warm air gets involved with this system. Any slight movements in track can really change the forecast.Yup, you may be right on the edge of the warm tonugue. Meantime, 12z GFS still showing Chitown some love...3-6" for NE IL...not as robust in MI, but still enough snow to cause problems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 Fun day to be LOT. GFS showing high end advisory for chicago and the EURO nearly a shut out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 Wow I am so close yet so far LOL!! Safe to say I can get anywhere from 4-12" of snow right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 Fun day to be LOT. GFS showing high end advisory for chicago and the EURO nearly a shut outKinda neat to see this battle within 24 hours, ay??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 Kinda neat to see this battle within 24 hours, ay???Yep. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 From Accu-Weather: Cities that are likely to be hit by 6 inches of snow or more and more substantial travel disruptions include Fort Wayne, Indiana, and Detroit, Lansing, Flint and Bay City, Michigan.The heavy rate of snow and gusty winds can produce white-out conditions in some location My thinking is that if winds are that strong, then, maybe they might issue out a Blizzard Watch. http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2016/650x366_02231509_hd25.jpg That 12-18 inch mark is not all that far from me. Jaster220...is your snowblower or shovels on standby?! Its coming! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 ^Yep, nice battle going on for sure but will have to start looking to the hi-res models for some clarity.So much potential with this system just not enough cold air for many areas otherwise it would be a wide reaching snowstorm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 Chicago might end up squeezing out a couple of inches. Very ,very close to that 3-6inch mark. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 If ORD manages to squeeze 2"+, it'll bring the snowfall for the season to about average. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 ^Yep, nice battle going on for sure but will have to start looking to the hi-res models for some clarity.So much potential with this system just not enough cold air for many areas otherwise it would be a wide reaching snowstorm.I believe this storm can produce its own cold air. Any rain that does start off will quickly go over to a heavy wet accumulating snow with strong winds. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 I believe this storm can produce its own cold air. Any rain that does start off will quickly go over to a heavy wet accumulating snow with strong winds. Snow shovel's always ready Nikos! (but hardly been needed since Nov!). Some over your way calling this a "run-of-the-mill" storm. I hope they eat crow for your sake! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 latest RPM run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 Snow shovel's always ready Nikos! (but hardly been needed since Nov!). Some over your way calling this a "run-of-the-mill" storm. I hope they eat crow for your sake! Same here...only snowfall of real accumulation was back in the Autumn season (Nov). Hopefully, its makes up for it now. Several snows chances down the road too. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 Oh! My! GFS next 7 days: 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 12z GGEM...took another jog NW and now looks like the RPM model...at least for Chicago region...seeing some consistency finally. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 Oh! My! GFS next 7 days: GFS 12z 23Feb 7-day snowfall.pngHOLY MOTHER OF GOD!!!!!!!! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 Another look on the 12z GGEM... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016022312/gem_asnow_ncus_10.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 Chicago is ever so close to receive a couple of inches of snow. Hanging by a thread. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 Another look on the 12z GGEM... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016022312/gem_asnow_ncus_10.pngBring it on ....all hell will break loose here in SEMI . Oh yeah baby!!!!!! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 12z GEFS...each and every 6 hour run keeps shifting NW...probably going to see 6:1 or 8:1 snow ratios with this storm. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016022312/gfs-ens_apcpn_eus_11.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 JMA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 06z GEFS vs 12z GEFS...shift NW is evident on the model...ORD may be lucky enough to get 6" outta this if it pans out just right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 Yeah I think it's safe to say NE IL gets advisory levels snows now. Anyone got the UKMET yet? Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midwest buildit Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 If ORD manages to squeeze 2"+, it'll bring the snowfall for the season to about average.maybe for the airport. but im only sitting at about 18-19" here currently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 http://www.weather.gov/images/dtx/briefing/DTX_Briefing-1.jpg From NOAA: Whiteout conditions are possible!!! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 Yeah I think it's safe to say NE IL gets advisory levels snows now. Anyone got the UKMET yet? Heard it is a tick SE from it's prior run(s) and lining up the path of other major models. GEM destroys SMI and most of those GEFS members concur. Prolly over-done based on less than stellar ratios ( Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 UKMET is holding pretty stready. Like the spot I am at for at least 3-4". Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 Heard it is a tick SE from it's prior run(s) and lining up the path of other major models. GEM destroys SMI and most of those GEFS members concur. Prolly over-done based on less than stellar ratios (<10:1), but still very nice eye candy! Marshall is by Battle Creek right? I think you're golden. I think areas closer to Ann Arbor will have rain issues. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 UKMET is holding pretty stready. Like the spot I am at for at least 3-4". http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/accum/PA_000-072_0000.gifMy first guess is that you will do better than that. Western edge will probably be a little farther west than currently modeled and hi-res should pick up on that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 EURO nudged closer to Evansville on this run. A bit different than last night. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 If you run through the NMM, you can see the storm coming together very nicely. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=hrw-nmmb&area=conus&cycle=20160223%2012%20UTC¶m=sim_radar&fourpan=no&imageSize=M&ps=area 4km NAM looks good too. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 Marshall is by Battle Creek right? I think you're golden. I think areas closer to Ann Arbor will have rain issues. about 12 miles due east of BC, yes. And you're right about the rain being much more likely from AA (about 50 miles east) and that way. Some models still want to include most of SEMI in warning criteria snows though, so even their liquid cant be lasting too long b4 switching over. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 That is one sharp cutoff on the NMM. LOT might need to expand the watches west. ARW the same way. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 If you run through the NMM, you can see the storm coming together very nicely. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=hrw-nmmb&area=conus&cycle=20160223%2012%20UTC¶m=sim_radar&fourpan=no&imageSize=M&ps=area 4km NAM looks good too. http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/animations/12Z-20160223_nam4kmUS_prec_radar.gif 1st, I hate how fast those vid's run, and 2nd it looks way west. Makes the whole storm look like a 30 sec ad. I wanna enjoy every possible hour of this as it is a rare strong system for us over in SMI. Good Luck! I'm sure you've been fine tuning your magnet! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 12z Euro... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 Oh, btw latest Euro destroys Mich's thumb region. That's very open farmland and if there's a place that should warrant a bliz watch, it is there imho. Next would be mby Edit: Ninja'd by "Major" Tom! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 Track of this storm system still bears watching. So far if has eyes on Michigan. Oh, I better go and dust off my snowblower from my garage later today. Its been there since last year (Nov2015). 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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