February 24th-25th Great Lakes Snowstorm

[jaster220]

WRF NMM

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmmb/00/hrw-nmmb_conus_046_sim_radar.gif

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmmb/00/hrw-nmmb_conus_048_precip_p48.gif

 

Nice! A little speck of 1.5" qpf over mby. Now if it's not 5:1 cement all will be well and good..

[Tom]

00z Euro/EPS/Control...

 

06z GFS as well...

[Niko]

We have to watch and see how much warm air gets involved with this system. Any slight movements in track can really change the forecast.

[Tom]

We have to watch and see how much warm air gets involved with this system. Any slight movements in track can really change the forecast.

Yup, you may be right on the edge of the warm tonugue.

 

Meantime, 12z GFS still showing Chitown some love...3-6" for NE IL...not as robust in MI, but still enough snow to cause problems.

[gosaints]

Fun day to be LOT.  GFS showing high end advisory for chicago and the EURO nearly a shut out

[indianajohn]

Wow I am so close yet so far LOL!! Safe to say I can get anywhere from 4-12" of snow right now.

[Tom]

Fun day to be LOT.  GFS showing high end advisory for chicago and the EURO nearly a shut out

Kinda neat to see this battle within 24 hours, ay???

[gosaints]

Kinda neat to see this battle within 24 hours, ay???

Yep.  

[Niko]

From Accu-Weather:

 

Cities that are likely to be hit by 6 inches of snow or more and more substantial travel disruptions include Fort Wayne, Indiana, and Detroit, Lansing, Flint and Bay City, Michigan.

The heavy rate of snow and gusty winds can produce white-out conditions in some location

 

My thinking is that if winds are that strong, then, maybe they might issue out a Blizzard Watch.

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2016/650x366_02231509_hd25.jpg

 

That 12-18 inch mark is not all that far from me.

 

Jaster220...is your snowblower or shovels on standby?! Its coming!

[Tony]

^Yep, nice battle going on for sure but will have to start looking to the hi-res models for some clarity.

So much potential with this system just not enough cold air for many areas otherwise it would be a wide reaching snowstorm.

[Niko]

Chicago might end up squeezing out a couple of inches. Very ,very close to that 3-6inch mark.

[Tom]

If ORD manages to squeeze 2"+, it'll bring the snowfall for the season to about average.

[Niko]

^Yep, nice battle going on for sure but will have to start looking to the hi-res models for some clarity.

So much potential with this system just not enough cold air for many areas otherwise it would be a wide reaching snowstorm.

I believe this storm can produce its own cold air. Any rain that does start off will quickly go over to a heavy wet accumulating snow with strong winds.

[jaster220]

I believe this storm can produce its own cold air. Any rain that does start off will quickly go over to a heavy wet accumulating snow with strong winds.

 

Snow shovel's always ready Nikos! (but hardly been needed since Nov!). Some over your way calling this a "run-of-the-mill" storm. I hope they eat crow for your sake!

[Yerf]

latest RPM run

[Niko]

Snow shovel's always ready Nikos! (but hardly been needed since Nov!). Some over your way calling this a "run-of-the-mill" storm. I hope they eat crow for your sake!

Same here...only snowfall of real accumulation was back in the Autumn season (Nov). Hopefully, its makes up for it now. Several snows chances down the road too.

[jaster220]

Oh! My! GFS next 7 days:  

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

12z GGEM...took another jog NW and now looks like the RPM model...at least for Chicago region...seeing some consistency finally.

[Niko]

Oh! My! GFS next 7 days:  

 

GFS 12z 23Feb 7-day snowfall.png

HOLY MOTHER OF GOD!!!!!!!!

[Tom]

Another look on the 12z GGEM...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016022312/gem_asnow_ncus_10.png

[Niko]

Chicago is ever so close to receive a couple of inches of snow. Hanging by a thread.

[Niko]

Another look on the 12z GGEM...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016022312/gem_asnow_ncus_10.png

Bring it on ....all hell will break loose here in SEMI . Oh yeah baby!!!!!!

[Tom]

12z GEFS...each and every 6 hour run keeps shifting NW...probably going to see 6:1 or 8:1 snow ratios with this storm.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016022312/gfs-ens_apcpn_eus_11.png

[Tony]

JMA

[Tom]

06z GEFS vs 12z GEFS...shift NW is evident on the model...ORD may be lucky enough to get 6" outta this if it pans out just right.

[Geos]

Yeah I think it's safe to say NE IL gets advisory levels snows now.

 

Anyone got the UKMET yet?

[midwest buildit]

If ORD manages to squeeze 2"+, it'll bring the snowfall for the season to about average.

maybe for the airport. but im only sitting at about 18-19" here currently.

[Niko]

http://www.weather.gov/images/dtx/briefing/DTX_Briefing-1.jpg

 

From NOAA:

 

Whiteout conditions are possible!!!

[jaster220]

Yeah I think it's safe to say NE IL gets advisory levels snows now.

 

Anyone got the UKMET yet?

 

Heard it is a tick SE from it's prior run(s) and lining up the path of other major models. GEM destroys SMI and most of those GEFS members concur. Prolly over-done based on less than stellar ratios (

[Geos]

UKMET is holding pretty stready. Like the spot I am at for at least 3-4".

 

[Geos]

Heard it is a tick SE from it's prior run(s) and lining up the path of other major models. GEM destroys SMI and most of those GEFS members concur. Prolly over-done based on less than stellar ratios (<10:1), but still very nice eye candy!

 

Marshall is by Battle Creek right? I think you're golden. I think areas closer to Ann Arbor will have rain issues.

[Tony]

UKMET is holding pretty stready. Like the spot I am at for at least 3-4".

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/accum/PA_000-072_0000.gif

My first guess is that you will do better than that. Western edge will probably be a little farther west than currently modeled and hi-res should pick up on that.

[Geos]

EURO nudged closer to Evansville on this run. A bit different than last night.

 

[Geos]

If you run through the NMM, you can see the storm coming together very nicely.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=hrw-nmmb&area=conus&cycle=20160223%2012%20UTC&param=sim_radar&fourpan=no&imageSize=M&ps=area

 

 

4km NAM looks good too.

 

[jaster220]

Marshall is by Battle Creek right? I think you're golden. I think areas closer to Ann Arbor will have rain issues.

 

about 12 miles due east of BC, yes. And you're right about the rain being much more likely from AA (about 50 miles east) and that way. Some models still want to include most of SEMI in warning criteria snows though, so even their liquid cant be lasting too long b4 switching over.

[Geos]

That is one sharp cutoff on the NMM. LOT might need to expand the watches west.

 

 

ARW the same way.

 

[jaster220]

If you run through the NMM, you can see the storm coming together very nicely.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=hrw-nmmb&area=conus&cycle=20160223%2012%20UTC&param=sim_radar&fourpan=no&imageSize=M&ps=area

 

 

4km NAM looks good too.

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/animations/12Z-20160223_nam4kmUS_prec_radar.gif

 

1st, I hate how fast those vid's run, and 2nd it looks way west. Makes the whole storm look like a 30 sec ad. I wanna enjoy every possible hour of this as it is a rare strong system for us over in SMI.  Good Luck! I'm sure you've been fine tuning your magnet! 

[Tom]

12z Euro...

[jaster220]

Oh, btw latest Euro destroys Mich's thumb region. That's very open farmland and if there's a place that should warrant a bliz watch, it is there imho. Next would be mby  

 

Edit: Ninja'd by "Major" Tom!

[Niko]

Track of this storm system still bears watching. So far if has eyes on Michigan.

 

Oh, I better go and dust off my snowblower from my garage later today. Its been there since last year (Nov2015).