East/Gulf Coast Weather 2016

[Andie]

Phil's right....sux for me.

 

So, here's Accuweathers look into the Fall weather. No surprises for me.

I'm on the line of wet and dry so, I guess I get a mix.

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2016-us-fall-forecast-warmth-in-northeast-drought-wildfires-in-west/59089880

[Phil]

High was 94/74, H/I 103 this afternoon before the rain moved in, now down to 88/77 with the sun back out. Classic August, actually feels okayish now that I've adapted to summer somewhat (I think).

 

Leaving for coastal Georgia tomorrow, where ironically it'll probably be cooler overall with a nice southerly breeze forecasted.

[Phil]

I hope AccuWeather is wrong about fall.

September always sucks here, often times much worse than June (especially in terms of humidity). Expect numerous 90+ days through the first 2-3 weeks of the month. Last year we were in the mid/upper 90s until the end of week3.

 

We typically don't lose the heat/humidity until October, and that transition can sometimes be very quick. In years like 2013, literally one cold front was all that separated summer from winter...heat raging until late September, snowing by early November.

[Andie]

101 today. The next 5 days all above 100 so, s.o.s. As they say. Then next Sat. It dips to 92-94. That's practically a cold front by comparison. And should remain in the 90's for 4 or 5 days. August always tough to call around here as we do get some swings in temps. Not Fall yet.

 

NOAA Fall maps - Oct.- Dec.

 

 

 

Bummer

[UnionWX]

69 comfortable degrees currently. 89f today, 91f yesterday. Hot week on tap.

[Andie]

Saturday North Texas is forecast for a front to come through and it will deliver approx. .75" of rain and temps dropping to 95* and Sun. a repeat and temps to hit only 92*. I thought I was hallucinating when I saw it, but it looks like our 100*+ run is o-ver.

 

Furthermore, the balance of the month of August will remain below 100* and a few days will slip into the high 80's. Take my word when I say all of North Texas will heave a sigh of relief.

 

Oh, by the way, has anyone noticed we are close to nearly 4000 days without a Huricane hitting the US?

In less than two months (October 6, 2016) it will be 4,000 days since the last time a major hurricane made landfall in the U.S., which was Wilma on October 24, 2005. Wilma was a record-setter, being the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record, with peak estimated sustained winds of 183 mph and lowest surface pressure of 882 mb.

[Phil]

There were likely stronger hurricanes before the satellite era, one notable storm being the Florida Keys Labor Day hurricane which is thought to have produced winds in excess of 200mph, literally "sand blasting" people to death (flesh ripped off, gross stuff).

 

Another storm is thought to have landfalled in NJ awhile back (forget the year, ages ago) which based on old landscape/damage surveys is also thought to have produced winds up to 200mph, extraordinary for that latitude.

[Phil]

Glad I'm not home to experience the mid-August dewpoint maximum. Lools like 95/75 was reached at the home station before 1pm today, so that'd suggest an upper 90s high this afternoon.

 

Meanwhile, currently 90/79 down here on the Golden Isles beaches, however, the sea breeze makes it quite comfortable on the beach itself.

[Andie]

One more day of 100*. Met just said however, that the H/I in the shade will be 105* and in the sun 120*. Yeah, that's no typo.

 

Then the change hits us Sat. and we'll get 1.25" of rain over 2 1/2 days. Only some heavy straight line winds, no hail or tornados. Localized flooding between Sat. through Mon. With temps at 87*, 86*, 88*. Heaven.

Following 9 days then in the low 90's. Practically Fall ! At last, civilized conditions.

[Phil]

00z ECMWF has a heat index of 120 degrees @ DCA on Saturday. Would be the highest heat index since the July 2011 heatwave, which delivered an hourly reading of 121 degrees, with an intra-hour reading of 125 degrees.

[Phil]

Glad I'm missing this heatwave. Looks like heat indices maxed out round 110 degrees today, +/- 5 degrees around the DCA/BWI corridor today. Home station hit 98/77, for a heat index of 113 degrees.

 

DCA looks to have reached 99 degrees this afternoon, which tied a record high for the date (though that's low hanging fruit right there). Heat index maxed at 110 degrees.

[Phil]

Excessive heat warning in effect for tomorrow, excessive heat watch on Sunday.

 

Warning is for heat indices between 110 and 115 degrees, though the usual spots will probably surpass 120 degrees.

[Phil]

I'll be in NYC most of tomorrow afternoon and evening. Looking forward to how the city copes with the heat and the possibility of some thunderstorms that night.

Better NYC than DC..heat indices will probably approach or surpass 120 degrees throughout the DC metro tomorrow.

 

Dewpoints are already in the upper 70s/low 80s across the area.

[Phil]

Yikes, 100/80 @ DCA, heat index of 120 degrees!

[UnionWX]

Toasterbath out there. Got up to 97F, witha dewpoint of 78!

[UnionWX]

Nice light showing going on to my west. Can see it from all the way down here.

[Andie]

Well, we got shafted again. Only received about .40" of rai.

Temps are in the high 80's at least.

Humidity 66

Dew point 68.

 

Temps will remain between 88 and 93* the next ten days are in the lower 90's. Then they believe we will rise back to normals at high 90's.

Beats the 100's.

 

Louisiana continues to suffer from huge downpours, and unprecedented flooding. And SE Texas is experiencing the rain we'd like to get.

It's been curious how this stationary low has received so little notice.

[Phil]

So, DCA up to 97 degrees by 1045AM.

 

Gotta love August, right?

[weatherfan2012]

Big thunderboomers just west of us could be another great light show in the works.

[Phil]

Well, DCA now has 38 days w/ 90+ highs this summer, will probably finish will 50+.

 

High was 101/78 at the home station yesterday, 101/73 today. That's four 100+ highs this summer IMBY, three @ DCA.

[Phil]

Mild downburst struck Germantown, MD today. A gust of 67mph was recorded at weatherbug headquarters.

[UnionWX]

Well, DCA now has 38 days w/ 90+ highs this summer, will probably finish will 50+.

High was 101/78 at the home station yesterday, 101/73 today. That's four 100+ highs this summer IMBY, three @ DCA.

Impressive, 38 already! 29 days w/ 90+ and counting here.

[weatherfan2012]

Holy crap at the storms to our west that a nasty looking radar

[Phil]

Germantown, MD is about to get destroyed again.

 

Wowzers @ that cell. Developing into a monster.

[UnionWX]

Holy crap at the storms to our west that a nasty looking radar

What is your location, weatherfan?

[weatherfan2012]

Pasadena location.just got hit pretty good here not to long ago.another cluster of strong storms coming up from the south so round two may be on the way these warm fronts tend to get active doing the summer months

[weatherfan2012]

Yep another batch of storms coming up from the south

[Phil]

Pissed that I'm missing this. Might as hell here on Saint Simons Island, GA.

[weatherfan2012]

Pissed that I'm missing this. Might as hell here on Saint Simons Island, GA.

furgers that you go on vacation that when the storms explode at home.

[Phil]

furgers that you go on vacation that when the storms explode at home.

I know, right? I knew it'd happen..haven't seen a single storm since I've been down here, either.

[Andie]

I know, right? I knew it'd happen..haven't seen a single storm since I've been down here, either.

Think of it as a forecaster asset. Go somewhere, you can guarantee your forecast for that area.

However, don't drag out the hair shirt just yet oh weather Swami ! Ye Old Farmers has something to add.

Throw your computer models away Phil, this little chart has ya covered !!

 

[Phil]

So, third straight 100+ day @ DCA. Can we go for a 4th straight tomorrow?

[Andie]

Wow, cloudy and 77* !

 

Is that exciting or what? It's the middle of August. This system that's been delivering so much rain and flooding to Louisiana and southern Texas is sitting just to the SE of the DFW area. We get scattered showers but nothing significant yet.

 

The rest of the week is calling for temps in the mid to upper 80's and 40-60% chances of rain.

We'll see if they called it right or not. But lower temps is just perfect right now.

[weatherfan2012]

Another round of storms today severe thunderstorm watch until 11.ever since you went on vacation phil the thunderstorms keep coming lol.

[UnionWX]

Always frustrating to see the line of storms dissolve as the get closer to the Deleware Valley.

Welcome to the Northeast ! Land of snow, but no tstorms. I usually get lucky being west of the Hudson, but we really don't do that well in the tstorms category. Even worse in New England.

[Andie]

Come to North Texas in late April early May when late cold fronts collide with Gulf air !

You'll get your fill and a few scares if you're in the right place.

[Andie]

The news hasn't been covering this story hardly at all, yet historic flooding on the scale of Katrina has been going on.

The number of homes flooded exceeds 10,000.  Imagine that. 

The news has been driven by the election.  I think they could wipe out a city and the news would barely cover it unless it was on the east coast.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3386

 

With more to come.

 

More African waves coming
A series of tropical waves will emerge from the coast of Africa during the next week, and we will have to watch these for development as they track westward to west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic. The models have been inconsistent in their handling of the track and potential development of these waves over the past few days, though the Wednesday morning runs of the GFS and European models agreed that a tropical wave due to come off of Africa on Saturday might develop by early next week.

 

And I had best prepare for heavy rain here too

 

Toward the coming weekend, the preexisting moisture will combine with a seasonally strong cool front to produce several days of heavy rain in a belt from southwest Texas into the Dallas-Fort Worth area.

[UnionWX]

CMC is a hurricane hit for the east coast. Yes, I know it's the CMC, take it with a grain of salt.

[Phil]

Looks like we'll have to watch 99L. Has a chance to impact the US as a hurricane, and looks to track in a manner favorable for a Mid-Atlantic landfall.

[Andie]

We had a couple nice thunderstorms today from the low.

Received .65" of rain. Just a few miles west of me received 5 1/2".

 

Tomorrow morning a front will drop down from Oklahoma and deliver some strong storms until early afternoon.

Then again on Sunday we should see more.

Not bad for an August in Texas ! Eh? And not a "hurri" to be seen.

The weekend will see temps in the high 80's then a week of low 90's. I'll take it !