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May 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


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That should come as no surprise considering I was being you.

 

Right.

 

That was all you.

 

I think you were yelling at the ECMWF.    :lol:

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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This is currently happening in the Oso area not far from where friends of mine live. The night shot is from their back yard just now. Hard to believe it's only May 12th!

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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This is currently happening in the Oso area not far from where friends of mine live. The night shot is from their back yard just now. Hard to believe it's only May 12th!

 

 

Must be something else at play there... the grass has not even dried out let alone the trees.

 

Nothing Seattle Times or KOMO.     Maybe a controlled burn?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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This is currently happening in the Oso area not far from where friends of mine live. The night shot is from their back yard just now. Hard to believe it's only May 12th!

I don't believe anything could possibly burn right now. We just had the wettest 7 months in the history of the universe. This has to be fake.

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I don't believe anything could possibly burn right now. We just had the wettest 7 months in the history of the universe. This has to be fake.

 

We can go into September with very little rainfall all summer and still don't typically have raging forest fires on this side of the mountains.  

 

Its surprising.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I did find a blurb about it on KIRO... the picture there looks like it burning in slash from logging.    Its in a cleared area.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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We can go into September with very little rainfall all summer and still don't typically have raging forest fires on this side of the mountains.

 

Let alone in mid-May after a very wet winter. And with nothing on the news about it.

It may very well be a controlled burn but things still have to be dry enough to burn.

 

Locally we have been at a high to extreme fire danger the past week or so. And all outdoor burning has been banned, with the exception of camp fires.

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It may very well be a controlled burn but things still have to be dry enough to burn.

 

Locally we have been at a high to extreme fire danger the past week or so. And all outdoor burning has been banned, with the exception of camp fires.

 

 

Looks like a short-term problem with the pattern next week.     

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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06z GFS/GEFS & 00z ECMWF/EPS aren't on board Tim's cool/wet mid May - mid June idea. #AAMlag

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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Right.

 

That was all you.

 

I think you were yelling at the ECMWF. :lol:

Actually, I was mocking you and your grossly oversimplified, painfully biased view on local weather and it's implications of future patterns you may or may not want to see. :)

 

In the scientific community they call it confirmation bias, and you do it constantly.

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06z GFS/GEFS & 00z ECMWF/EPS aren't on board Tim's cool/wet mid May - mid June idea. #AAMlag

Part of me is almost happy about that.

 

Something very irritating about someone constantly trying to force the weather to conform to their will.

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Actually, I was mocking you and your grossly oversimplified, painfully biased view on local weather and it's implications of future patterns you may or may not want to see. :)

 

In the scientific community they call it confirmation bias, and you do it constantly.

 

 

Thanks for the update and attacking me once again with no provoking!

 

If anything... I am hopeful for significant rain but you decided to mock anyone who likes warm weather by saying the next 6 days will be hell.  It was your frustration coming though but you will never admit it.   It came out of nowhere.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Part of me is almost happy about that.

 

Something very irritating about someone constantly trying to force the weather to conform to their will.

 

 

Anytime between now and June 15th works.     

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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As the ULL settles in over the PNW... the Midwest will finally warm up again.    Quite cold there this weekend.   Freeze warnings across a wide area there for tonight.

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls03/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls03-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-lOYT6o.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Thanks for the update and attacking me once again with no provoking!

 

If anything... I am hopeful for significant rain but you decided to mock anyone who likes warm weather by saying the next 6 days will be hell. It was your frustration coming though but you will never admit it. It came out of nowhere.

It is important to you that we see wet weather within a very specific window because it will make you feel better about a warm and dry summer, based mainly on analog years from the late Victorian era.

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It is important to you that we see wet weather within a very specific window because it will make you feel better about a warm and dry summer, based mainly on analog years from the late Victorian era.

 

 

Not even close.    I am not worried about this summer in the least right now.   You keep projecting that onto me.   Its going to be a very long warm season this year.   Its all good... even if it turns cooler later on.   We have already achieved the long warm season by virtue of what has already happened.

 

I think staying really dry and warm through June sets the stage for a 1958-type summer even if Phil says it can't possibly happen.   

 

You don't see many years with record warmth and summer weather the entire AMJ period and then flip to cool and wet in the middle of the summer.    We should hope that troughing and cooler weather can break through now... just to show it can happen.

 

You are in mocking overdrive right now.    Shows anxiety.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Not even close. I am not worried about this summer in the least right now. You keep projecting that onto me. Its going to be a very long warm season this year. Its all good... even if it turns cooler later on. We have already achieved the long warm season by virtue of what has already happened.

 

I think staying really dry and warm through June sets the stage for a 1958-type summer even if Phil says it can't possibly happen.

 

You don't see many years with record warmth and summer weather the entire AMJ period and then flip to cool and wet in the middle of the summer. We should hope that troughing and cooler weather can break through now... just to show it can happen.

 

You are in mocking overdrive right now. Shows anxiety.

Was Justin mocking you out of anxiousness yesterday? Maybe you are just really mockable.

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The Hot spring weather has taken a toll on the BC snowpack.  Now at record low levels for the province as a whole.

 

 

"Snowpack
The extremely warm periods in April led to significant and rapid melt of the provincial snow pack. May 1st snow basin indices ranged from 12% to 100% of normal, with a provincial average of 53%. The provincial average saw a decline of 38% from the April 1st value of 91%. The 2016 May 1st provincial average basin index is a new record low (measured since 1980), and is 13% below the previous low of 66%, observed in 1980. Of the 183 snow survey measurements made for the May 1st period, 33 stations, or 18%, observed new record lows, with many locations having 40 to 50 years of record. Low and mid-elevation snow is largely gone for all areas of the province with snow remaining only at high elevation."

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I think staying really dry and warm through June sets the stage for a 1958-type summer even if Phil says it can't possibly happen.

 

You don't see many years with record warmth and summer weather the entire AMJ period and then flip to cool and wet in the middle of the summer. We should hope that troughing and cooler weather can break through now... just to show it can happen.

 

You are in mocking overdrive right now. Shows anxiety.

Actually, all warm A/M/Js during analogous Niña transitions were followed by cooler than average J/A/Ss. So, you're wrong again.

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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Was Justin mocking you out of anxiousness yesterday? Maybe you are just really mockable.

 

 

No... Justin was showing his anxiousness over a perceived technicality with stats about last winter.

 

One simple comment about Nino fading and he came out swinging.   It was silly.    

 

Both of you are high tension right now.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I see there are some evacuation notices for one of those wildfires burning in Snohomish county.

Yeah I heard that as well. There are now two separate wildfires here on the west side, one near Oso and one near Gold Bar.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Yeah I heard that as well. There are now two separate wildfires here on the west side, one near Oso and one near Gold Bar.

 

 

00Z ECMWF was disappointingly dry despite troughing shown for basically the entire run.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Suddenly now looks like it will be raining until Monday morning in my area and probably for most of King County.

Hopefully it stays south of me, would like to mow this weekend.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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