Phil Posted July 31, 2016 Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 You are wrong now and you were wrong then. You did not apply specific climate knowledge to what the models were showing.Nope, you were wrong. Here are the modeled temperatures in reference for that day. Checkmate, b**tch: Dewey did that day... and he was right. Deal with it nut job.Just posted the modeled temperatures above. So, you were wrong. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 Nope, you were wrong. Here are the modeled temperatures in reference for that day.Checkmate, b**tch:image.jpeg Just posted the modeled temperatures above.Sucker. No idea what you are talking about. I think you are just being a d*ck to be a d*ck right now. You were wrong that day and now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 31, 2016 Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 Here are the next two model runs, 7/17 & 7/18. Again, the model was forecasting a strong marine layer, because it got the pattern wrong. So, my interpretation was right, yours was wrong. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 Here were the next two model runs. Again, overemphasizing the marine layer because it got the pattern wrong. So, my interpretation was right, yours was wrong. image.jpegimage.pngWe knew that on that day. You did not. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 31, 2016 Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 No idea what you are talking about. I think you are just being a d*ck to be a d*ck right now.You were wrong that day and now.Dude, I just proved that the model was depicting a slightly cooler than average pattern, because it was forecasting a marine layer to persist. My interpretation of the model was correct. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 Dude, I just proved that the model was depicting a slightly cooler than average pattern, because it was forecasting a marine layer to persist. My interpretation of the model was correct.We knew to apply our knowledge of the local climate. You did not. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 31, 2016 Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 We knew that on that day. You did not.No, you were claiming the model was warm verbatim, when it wasn't. That's what I called you out on. I never said agreed with the model. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 31, 2016 Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 We knew to apply our knowledge of the local climate. You did not.Read your own quotes. You were fighting me on the specific details of what the model showed. Verbatim. Give it the f**k up. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 31, 2016 Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 I said this last night, Tim. Pay attention: Also, my posts describing model runs are not forecasts. Just in case you attempt to spin things again.I never said I agreed with the modeled solution. I said you were interpreting it wrong. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 Read your own quotes! You were fighting me on the specific details of what the model showed! Verbatim! Give it the f**k up. We looked at the same models... applied knowledge of our climate and its tendencies and we were right. You should have just shut up but you wanted to quickly shoot me down for saying it would be warm. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 31, 2016 Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 Checkmate, dude. I archive everything here. You read the model wrong. It's not a big deal, so denying it is pointless. You're in a hole already, you can quit digging. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 31, 2016 Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 We looked at the same models... applied knowledge of our climate and its tendencies and we were right. You should have just shut up but you wanted to quickly shoot me down for saying it would be warm.I shot down your misinterpretation(s) of the temperature output on the model. Our entire argument was on the specific temperature output on the ECMWF run. Again, verbatim. Read your own quotes. You lose. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 31, 2016 Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 You're really making a fool of yourself here, Tim, Yet you're still trying to spin. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 Checkmate, dude. I archive everything here. You read the model wrong. It's not a big deal, so denying it is pointless.You're in a hole already, you can quit digging.We knew it was a warm pattern and not to take the surface details verbatim. Dewey told you that at the time. We knew it was a warm pattern. I even said that day that its a warm pattern despite what the model surface details showed. Local climate knowledge. You were wrong then and now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 31, 2016 Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 We knew it was a warm pattern and not to take the surface details verbatim. Dewey told you that at the time. We knew it was a warm pattern. I even said that day that its a warm pattern despite what the model surface details showed. Local climate knowledge. You were wrong then and now. Bullcrap. That had nothing to do with the discussion you quoted. I never agreed with the model. I was correcting your interpretation of the model, verbatim. You were/are just too stupid to read it properly. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 Bullcrap. That had nothing to do with the discussion you quoted.I never agreed with the model. I was correcting your interpretation of the model, verbatim. You were/are just too stupid to properly interpret it.Why is it so difficult for you to understand this?Has everything to do with it. You were too dense to understand... then and now. We knew it was a warm pattern. You get lost in the weeds and argue so much soyou never learn. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 31, 2016 Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 I'll wager you $5000 that you'll never find a quote where I supported/forecasted the modeled solution. You're done. Go home. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 I'll wager you $5000 that you'll never find a quote where I supported/forecasted the modeled solution.You're done. Go home.Nope. You argued with us that it was not a warm pattern in the models. It was. Have to know which parts are important. Nobody was making a forecast that day. But you were still wrong. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 31, 2016 Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 Has everything to do with it. You were too dense to understand... then and now.We knew it was a warm pattern. You get lost in the weeds and argue so much soyou never learn.You posted a map claiming the model showed above normal temperatures. Do I have to re-quote you again? Man, you're a stupid little bugger. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 You posted a map claiming the model showed above normal temperatures. Do I have to re-quote you? I said it looks warm. No surface temps. It did look warm... Dewey saw it too. And it was! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 31, 2016 Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 You argued with us that it was not a warm pattern in the models.Nope, I said the model (which got the pattern wrong), verbatim, was depicting cooler than average temperatures. I never said I agreed with the model. It had the ridge too far offshore. Understand? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 31, 2016 Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 I said it looks warm. No surface temps. It did look warm... Dewey saw it too.And it was!That ECMWF run busted on the pattern! It had the ridge too far offshore. It was showing a marine layer pattern, as its forecasted temperatures prove. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 Nope, I said the model (which got the pattern wrong), verbatim, was depicting cooler than average temperatures.I never said I agreed with the model. It had the ridge too far offshore.Understand?Nope. You just took surface stuff verbatim... we knew it was warm pattern regardless of what it showed at the surface. That was a pretty easy call. We both saw it. You did not. Oh well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 31, 2016 Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 More archived images here. Checkmate: Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 31, 2016 Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 Nope.You just took surface stuff verbatim... we knew it was warm pattern regardless of what it showed at the surface.That was a pretty easy call. We both saw it. You did not. Oh well.That's not what you were arguing. Sorry dude, you're not gonna wiggle out of this one. I will make sure you waste the rest of your summer on this if you keep it up. I promise, you're not getting anywhere. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 31, 2016 Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 That's not what you were arguing. Sorry dude, you're not gonna wiggle out of this one. I will make sure you waste the rest of your summer on this if you keep it up. I promise, you're not getting anywhere.Exactly what we said then and now. Deal with it. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 By the way... it was the morning runs on 7/17. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 31, 2016 Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 Exactly what we said then and now. Deal with it.Last chance to concede, otherwise I'm posting the screenshots of your posts. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 31, 2016 Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 By the way... it was the morning runs on 7/17.The morning runs were even colder. They warmed over time as they moved the ridge closer to the coast. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 The morning runs were even colder. They warmed over time as they moved the ridge closer to the coast.Well magically... Dewey and I both knew it was a warm pattern shown. Amazing huh? Too bad you did not listen. It really was a warm pattern. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 31, 2016 Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 Here's what I wrote back on 7/17. I never said I agreed with the model. Looking at modeled soundings on the 12z ECMWF, there's definitely a marine inversion present under the height rises/warming aloft. Whether or not that pattern actually verifies is another question.Turns out, the pattern (as depicted) did not verify. So, again, I wasn't wrong about anything. Understand? I only corrected your misinterpretation of the depicted surface temperatures, verbatim. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 Here's what I wrote back on 7/17.I never said I agreed with the model. Turns out, the pattern (as depicted) did not verify. So, again, I wasn't wrong about anything.Understand? I only corrected your misinterpretation of the depicted surface temperatures, verbatim.You still don't get it. Not that hard to understand. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 31, 2016 Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 You still don't get it. Not that hard to understand.You still don't get it. Not that hard to understand. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 You still don't get it. Not that hard to understand.OK Phil. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 31, 2016 Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 Haha, I just realized something. The conversation Tim was referencing was focused on the July 21st to July 23rd timeframe, the week before last week. That period was cooler than normal on 2/3 days at OLM, PDX, SEA, EUG, and the majority of the WA/OR lowlands, even put up multiple negative departures @ SEA.CMC d5 - d7, no GFS-esque warmup. Whether it's right or not, that's another story.You are worried too much about surface temp maps... that is a warm pattern. Do not need surface maps to tell me that. Those surface temp maps lead you astray sometimes. Those are 850mb temperatures, not surface temperatures. The surface temperatures are colder relative to average than the 850mb temperatures. Do yourself a favor and look at the modeled soundings before making blanket statements. Using raw 500mb heights to forecast temperatures within the lower boundary layer isn't smartWorks very well with that 500mb pattern if it verifies. No question. Very easy.That's what you said about this week, one week ago. Turns out, July 10-17 will average colder regionwide than July 1-10, except at SEA. Oops. Considerably warmer for Wednesday in Seattle. Now shows mid to maybe upper 70s that day on the surface maps. It showed low 70s on the 12Z run. Thursday is about the same in Seattle... but definitely cooler down south. PDX to Eugene was in the 82-90 range and now in the 75-82 range. Trough is slower. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 No it wasn't... started 7/22 which was day 5. You are running circles. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 31, 2016 Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 No it wasn't... started 7/22 which was day 5.You are running circles. The model images in your post refute this! Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 In case you did not know... it was 80 on Wed 7/20 and 84 on Thurs 7/21 in Seattle. Warm days. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 31, 2016 Report Share Posted July 31, 2016 No it wasn't... started 7/22 which was day 5.You are running circles. See the time stamp on the model images, 7/21, 7/22, and 7/23. Caught in another lie. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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