August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[wx_statman]

Anomalies...relative to climatology.

 

I have to have this conversation with Tim, I wouldn't expect to with you. 

 

I think you focus too much attention on OLM.

[Jesse]

In my opinion its not a good idea to focus so much attention on one station, regardless of its virtues.

I would agree.

[Phil]

To be fair, I think Jared likes it because it has seen very few changes over the years.

 

It may be a cold outlier compared to the rest of the Puget Sound lowlands thanks to its radiational cooling prowess. But it still is useful to compare to itself historically. Whereas stations like SEA have seen substantial land changes, and thus their modern temps/records/anomalies aren't as useful in an historical context.

Hard to disagree with this.

[wx_statman]

I would agree.

 

I also agree with what you said, even though I didn't explicitly state it. 

[Jesse]

PDX has similar issues to SEA, although not as pronounced.

 

For instance, it is hard to imagine the exact same patterns as this month giving them a 59+ degree average low 30-40 years ago. Just more open land surrounding the station back then.

[Phil]

The UHI problem is real, and unfortunately it's absurdly hard to "correct" for in all reanalyses that seek to do so.

[James Jones]

For those keeping score, today's 95 at PDX was a record. Previously 94 in 2010. That was a fun progression too, huge crash between the heat event on 8/24-25 and the cold trough at the end of the month.

SEA, OLM, and BLI broke their records too, with EUG and SLE tying theirs. 

[Jesse]

The UHI problem is real, and unfortunately it's absurdly hard to "correct" for in reanalysis that seeks to do so.

It's unfortunate, since I feel that it often muddies the water when trying to parse out the true effects of AGW.

[Front Ranger]

OLM has been off on its own this summer.

 

SEA has been in line... OLM is the Puget Sound region outlier.  

 

Like most summers, OLM's anomalies to date match the region overall. Compared to the region overall, SEA is a warm outlier for the summer. 

 

We've been over this...it's pretty cut and dried. UHI effect isn't rocket science.

[Phil]

It's unfortunate, since I feel that it often muddies the water when trying to parse out the true effects of AGW.

That as well, yes. There are other methods employed to measure globally averages temperature, but any regional surface temperature studies that seek to rely on observed tendencies to predict future variations associated w/ climate changes will run into problems.

[Deweydog]

Like most summers, OLM's anomalies to date match the region overall. Compared to the region overall, SEA is a warm outlier for the summer.

 

We've been over this...it's pretty cut and dried. UHI effect isn't rocket science.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say the region's anomalies match the region best.

[Front Ranger]

I think you focus too much attention on OLM.

 

Don't take me too seriously.

 

But seriously...it's one of few long term stations with reliable data and little to no UHI influence. And it's conveniently located between Portland and Seattle. Doesn't tend to be an outlier with certain low level outflow events like BLI or PDX. 

 

Overall, it just reflects pretty well what's going on with the region in general in relation to long term climatology. But I don't think it's the only point of reference.

[Phil]

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say the region's anomalies match the region best.

Meaning, SEA (and a few other more recently "urbanized" stations) will tend to run higher anomalies relative to their own baseline(s) versus those that have seen less urbanization.

 

Too many stations are affected by his problem, which often skews surface temperature reanalyses warm vs upper air analyses during the gridding and extrapolatory/interpolatory procedures employed (given stations are isolated datapoints).

[TT-SEA]

Like most summers, OLM's anomalies to date match the region overall. Compared to the region overall, SEA is a warm outlier for the summer.

 

We've been over this...it's pretty cut and dried. UHI effect isn't rocket science.

Explain WFO SEA, Bellingham, Victoria and others then.

 

SEA is not running warmer than those locations overall. June and July were exactly the same at WFO SEA and SEA for example.

 

SEA lines up very well with those stations. Definitely cooler compared to average than BLI and Victoria.

[Deweydog]

Meaning, SEA (and a few other more recently "urbanized" stations) will tend to run higher anomalies relative to their own baseline(s) versus those that have seen less urbanization.

 

Too many stations are affected by his problem, which often skews surface temperature reanalyses warm vs upper air analyses during the gridding and extrapolatory/interpolatory procedures employed (given stations are isolated datapoints).

Sure. Taking the average of several stations seems wise. Nothing groundbreaking there.

[Front Ranger]

Explain WFO SEA, Bellingham, Victoria and others then.

 

SEA is not running warmer than those locations overall. June and July were exactly the same at WFO SEA and SEA for example.

 

Look at the anomalies for June, July, and August to date on the HPRCC website. OLM matches up well to the region.

[wx_statman]

Don't take me too seriously.

 

But seriously...it's one of few long term stations with reliable data and little to no UHI influence. And it's conveniently located between Portland and Seattle. Doesn't tend to be an outlier with certain low level outflow events like BLI or PDX. 

 

Overall, it just reflects pretty well what's going on with the region in general in relation to long term climatology. But I don't think it's the only point of reference.

 

Fair enough.

 

You still bring it up too often though, even in situations where its not really relevant. 

[TT-SEA]

Look at the anomalies for June, July, and August to date on the HPRCC website. OLM matches up well to the region.

 

 

SEA matches up well in a smaller region within the larger region and is far from the warmest station.   

 

Its not some lone outlier.   BLI has been considerably warmer than SEA (compared to average).   Same story with Victoria.   

[TT-SEA]

Look at the anomalies for June, July, and August to date on the HPRCC website. OLM matches up well to the region.

 

 

3-month anomalies... I don't see a lone red dot over SEA.  

 

[Front Ranger]

OLM is actually in the +1 to +2 anomaly range for that period. SEA is above +2.

[Deweydog]

Yakima is the new public enemy airport #1.

[wx_statman]

Yakima is the new public enemy airport #1.

 

They've been renovating taxiways and adjacent ramps/connectors at YKM since April 25th. I wonder how much the construction work has impacted their temperatures this summer.

 

https://yakimaairterminal.com/taxiway-alpha-rehabilitation-project/

[Front Ranger]

SEA matches up well in a smaller region within the larger region and is far from the warmest station.   

 

Its not some lone outlier.   BLI has been considerably warmer than SEA (compared to average).   Same story with Victoria.   

 

Big picture, man. I've provided the stats. SEA has consistently ran warmer than most the region since 2006ish - especially in the warm season. Not every month...but most months.

 

And it's no great mystery why.

[TT-SEA]

Big picture, man. I've provided the stats. SEA has consistently ran warmer than most the region since 2006ish - especially in the warm season. Not every month...but most months.

 

And it's no great mystery why.

 

 

You said it was an outlier this summer.   That means it has local effects that skew it warmer than it would otherwise be... and that is not the case this summer.   

 

WFO SEA, BLI, and Victoria support that position.

 

SEA is not a lone outlier this summer.   

 

Maybe overall since 2006... but you specifically said this summer.   If SEA was a degree or more warmer than every station in the Puget Sound region and Vancouver Island for JJA then I would agree with you.     Its not.

[TT-SEA]

OLM is actually in the +1 to +2 anomaly range for that period. SEA is above +2.

 

 

How is BLI doing?   

 

And WFO SEA?

 

And Victoria?  

 

The whole world is not just SEA and OLM.   

 

SEA is part of a larger warm anomaly area this summer and is not the warmest station in western WA. 

[Front Ranger]

How is BLI doing?   

 

And WFO SEA?

 

And Victoria?  

 

The whole world is not just SEA and OLM.   

 

SEA is part of a larger warm anomaly area this summer and is not the warmest station in western WA. 

 

You said OLM was a cool outlier for the region. The map you posted shows it's not.

[TT-SEA]

You said OLM was a cool outlier for the region. The map you posted shows it's not.

For the Puget Sound region it is the cool outlier... and you want OLM to be in our special region up here.

 

SEA is arguably a cool outlier in the Puget Sound region using stations to the north.

[Front Ranger]

OLM has been off on its own this summer.

 

SEA has been in line... OLM is the Puget Sound region outlier.  

[Deweydog]

How about no one is an outlier?

 

One happy, big-a** anomalous family!

[Front Ranger]

For the Puget Sound region it is the single cool outlier... and you want OLM to be in our special region up here.

 

That's not what the map shows. They use a lot more than 3 stations to compute that.

 

You're arguing against what your own map illustrates. The map showed the majority of the Puget Sound region being in the +1 to +2 range. And that is where OLM falls. SEA is above.

[TT-SEA]

That's not what the map shows. They use a lot more than 3 stations to compute that.

 

You're arguing against what your own map illustrates. The map showed the majority of the Puget Sound region being in the +1 to +2 range. And that is where OLM falls. SEA is above.

SEA is 2.0 for the summer before today. BLI and Victoria are higher. Are you really saying SEA is the outlier? You think all the small station data is reliable?

 

SEA is right in line within the Puget Sound region. OLM is missing out on the party!

[Front Ranger]

SEA is 2.0 for the summer before today. BLI and Victoria are higher. Are you really saying SEA is the outlier? You think all the small station data is reliable?

 

Feel free to write the WRCC. I'll take their analysis over yours. I know that SEA has an established tendency towards being skewed warm. You're bringing up a straw man.

 

And SEA was +2.1 before today.

 

Look, I'm not saying SEA is a huge outlier for the region this summer. I'm refuting your claim that OLM is.

[Jesse]

How about no one is an outlier?

 

One happy, big-a** anomalous family!

Need a Q-test and a ppth test to determine for sure.

[TT-SEA]

Feel free to write the WRCC. I'll take their analysis over yours. I know that SEA has an established tendency towards being skewed warm. You're bringing up a straw man.

 

And SEA was +2.1 before today.

 

Look, I'm not saying SEA is a huge outlier for the region this summer. I'm refuting your claim that OLM is.

OLM is awesome. I bow to OLM.

 

OLM is probably in line with the larger region.

 

But for fun... compare the number of days below normal this summer at OLM and BLI.

[wx_statman]

I hope the ASOS sensor at OLM breaks and they forget to fix it. 

[James Jones]

Its pretty weird that after hitting 102 on 8/31/1987 and 105 on 9/2/1988, we still haven't cracked 98 this late in the season @ PDX. 

8/31/98? 

[Bryant]

Don't feed him.

Being an a** comes naturally to Tim... so much so that he thinks everyone else is to blame and never himself.

[ShawniganLake]

Victoria broke their record by at least 5F today. Record from 1996. Analogues.

[TT-SEA]

Victoria broke their record by at least 5F today. Record from 1996. Analogues.

Analogue. I like it. More sophisticated.

[ShawniganLake]

Analogue. I like it. More sophisticated.

I believe Abbotsford also broke their record from 1996.