October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

New 12Z GFS MOS guidance doesn't show PDX even hitting 70 this weekend. Then they drop into the 40s Sunday night.

[Phil]

Death toll in Haiti rises to 842. Heartbreaking.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like a more amplified version of 2010. Height anomaly pattern is almost a perfect match..can't find anything closer all the way back to the 1800s:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/62E0F8B9-6168-40B0-B3E9-059C7BCAE689_zpsriwuifw2.jpg

 

 

Thanksgiving week in 2010 was an absolute blast.    Got real messy at the end of the week... but the lead up was gorgeous.   A foot of snow on the ground... crystal clear skies.   

 

I also remember a winter wonderland here with lots of sun around New Years as well.     

 

This picture is from Christmas/New Years that year... my kids and their cousins from San Diego going sledding down the road from our house:

 

 

 

 

And my kids on the deck right before Thanksgiving in 2010...  just perfect combination of snow and cold.  

 

[Phil]

Thanksgiving week in 2010 was an absolute blast. Got real messy at the end of the week... but the lead up was gorgeous. A foot of snow on the ground... crystal clear skies.

 

I also remember a winter wonderland here with lots of sun around New Years as well.

 

This picture is from Christmas/New Years that year... my kids and their cousins from San Diego going sledding down the road from our house:

 

 

 

 

And my kids on the deck right before Thanksgiving in 2010... just perfect combination of snow and cold.

 

Beautiful pictures. Memories to savor right there.

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful pictures. Memories to savor right there.

 

 

Need some new memories involving snow this year!  

[Phil]

Daytona beach went under:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/7D9BC07C-5073-416C-B274-8656822EC33F_zpsqxhxpcli.jpg

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 There was a decent cold snap in the west late December 2010 into early January. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

In case you were wondering PDX is at -1.9 for the month...

[Phil]

All the cameras have been taken out except this one. Winds have switched offshore here so the surge thread has passed.

 

Some 20ft+ breakers a few hundred yards out:

 

http://www.surfline.com/surf-report/ormond-beach-florida_5333/

[Jesse]

12z GFS ensembles now look generally below average the entire run.

 

The little shot of cool, dry air early next week keeps looking more impressive too.

[westcoastexpat]

Honestly no offense, but this seems fake to me (believe me I would know). Almost like you think you've found an opportunity to form an alliance and/or win over some hearts and minds, and you're doing it under the guise of objectivity.

 

Not trying to attack you here. Maybe I'm wrong.

 

And even if I was masterminding such a despicable ploy... is "form[ing] an alliance and/or win over some hearts and minds" such a terrible thing? Again, why the hate for the "fake"? Sometimes "keeping it real" is just a fancy way of being a total ****.

 

Actually, I encourage everyone in here to make allies, win over hearts, win over minds, and come across as objective as possible.

[Geos]

Windy day in the area. Have seen some small to medium-ish sized branches come down. 

 

Looking like a really wet weekend in store.

 

[Phil]

F******k.

 

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1261828967222920&id=115853591820469&_rdr

[wx_statman]

 There was a decent cold snap in the west late December 2010 into early January. 

 

Kind of a forgotten cold snap, but pretty impressive. Burns hit -25F and some readings in the desert SW approached all-time record territory (i.e. -24F at Petrified Forest AZ on 1/1/11 which was second only to -27F in January 1971). In a lot of ways it was a prelude to the big cold wave down there a month later, by which it was overshadowed. Of course here in the PNW it was overshadowed by both Nov and late Feb.

[Geos]

Daytona beach went under:

 

 

D**n, that's not too good looking.

 

Jacksonville is getting slammed right now.

[Phil]

D**n, that's not too good looking.

 

Jacksonville is getting slammed right now.

I puked in my mouth a little.

 

A friend of mine on Sea Island, GA says the waves have breached the north jetty and the entire island is being inundated. Also says some 200yr old live oaks have come down on her street and have blocked them off.

 

Tide is going out but Matthew keeps getting closer. So it's basically a wash.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF has heavy rain into the Portland area on Sunday afternoon now while mostly dry around Seattle.

 

Even on the reliable ECMWF that band on Sunday has gone from north of Vancouver BC down to Portland in the last 2 days (4 runs).

 

Go northern stream! Hoping for a little more in that trend southward before Sunday.

[TT-SEA]

If the 12Z ECMWF is correct then it should be mostly dry in the Seattle area from Sunday morning through early Thursday.   

[Jesse]

Euro seems to want to start rebuilding heights offshore toward the end of the run.

[TT-SEA]

In case you were wondering PDX is at -1.9 for the month...

 

 

SEA is now above normal for the month at +0.3

 

WFO SEA is at +0.8

 

Bellingham is blowing that away... currently at +2.8

 

Olympia is at +1.5   

 

 

SEA is the cold outlier as usual.   

[Deweydog]

So if PDX can dodge the 70 degree bullet this weekend/early next week they could still be in the running for a 70-free October for the first time since 1949. So close so many times...

[Jesse]

Month to date:

I'm starting to think the warm blob has set up residence in the Puget Sound.

[Jesse]

So if PDX can dodge the 70 degree bullet this weekend/early next week they could still be in the running for a 70-free October for the first time since 1949. So close so many times...

 

Gonna be a nailbiter. I can picture tomorrow hitting it pretty easily with any extended sunbreaks. After that there may not be another shot for a while, and obviously the deeper into the month we go the more difficult it becomes.

[Deweydog]

Gonna be a nailbiter. I can picture tomorrow hitting it pretty easily with any extended sunbreaks. After that there may not be another shot for a while, and obviously the deeper into the month we go the more difficult it becomes.

Next Tuesday could also be an issue.

[BLI snowman]

So if PDX can dodge the 70 degree bullet this weekend/early next week they could still be in the running for a 70-free October for the first time since 1949. So close so many times...

 

They should get to 70 tomorrow. 

[TT-SEA]

So if PDX can dodge the 70 degree bullet this weekend/early next week they could still be in the running for a 70-free October for the first time since 1949. So close so many times...

 

 

Won't happen early next week.   GFS MOS has 69, 68. 65. 65. 65 there the next 5 days.

 

ECMWF shows 69 tomorrow and then 60 on Sunday with rain moving in... then only peaking at 65 next Tuesday.

[Deweydog]

Month to date: image.png

 

I'm starting to think the warm blob has set up residence in the Puget Sound.

Hillsboro just popped above the Mendoza line.

 

#expandingblob

[Jesse]

Next Tuesday could also be an issue.

 

I was just thinking that, although with the early week airmass trending cooler I'm not seeing it for now. Looking like a chilly start and a coolish airmass Tuesday, which should hold temps in the 66-68 range IMO.

[Jesse]

Hillsboro just popped above the Mendoza line.

 

#expandingblob

 

Warm outflow from AST. Thank the Nehalem Gap.

[Jesse]

They should get to 70 tomorrow. 

 

75 at the lowest with a morning low of 68, DP 67.

[TT-SEA]

Decent day... partly sunny and dry here. Low clouds are mostly gone... some high clouds remain.

[Deweydog]

I was just thinking that, although with the early week airmass trending cooler I'm not seeing it for now. Looking like a chilly start and a coolish airmass Tuesday, which should hold temps in the 66-68 range IMO.

Could be. Depends on how much of that continental gold makes it into the basin.

[Jesse]

Could be. Depends on how much of that continental gold makes it into the basin.

 

Each successive run keeps trending toward more at the moment. That may keep up for a few more six hour increments before things plateau.

[Deweydog]

Each successive run keeps trending toward more at the moment. That may keep up for a few more six hour increments before things plateau.

Every second counts.

 

#prayforclouds

[wx_statman]

So if PDX can dodge the 70 degree bullet this weekend/early next week they could still be in the running for a 70-free October for the first time since 1949. So close so many times...

 

2007 sticks out in my memory. We were on track until a spike to 75 on 10/23. Ironically the 2nd latest 75 on record @ PDX. 

[Deweydog]

2007 sticks out in my memory. We were on track until a spike to 75 on 10/23. Ironically the 2nd latest 75 on record @ PDX.

2011 tried too. Made it to the 18th when one nasty lil' 74 jacked it all up.

[BLI snowman]

75 at the lowest with a morning low of 68, DP 67.

 

I mean, it's easily a lock for 71 or 72. PDX is not going to ever come in short of model guidance.

[Jesse]

I mean, it's easily a lock for 71 or 72. PDX is not going to ever come in short of model guidance.

 

Oh Justin.

[BLI snowman]

2007 sticks out in my memory. We were on track until a spike to 75 on 10/23. Ironically the 2nd latest 75 on record @ PDX. 

 

2009 was the closest October to not hitting 70 in recent years. Some places in the Portland area did manage it, SPB only topped out at 68 that month.

[Deweydog]

2009 was the closest October to not hitting 70 in recent years. Some places in the Portland area did manage it, SPB only topped out at 68 that month.

Nina magic!!!