October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Dewey hit it on the head.

 

Whatever.

 

Most on here see right through it no matter the amount of spin you try.

 

Its all good, keep on keeping on..... whatever helps your conscience.

 

Yup. He is literally spewing bullshit out of every orifice with that post.

[Deweydog]

So do lawyers.

Speaking of needing new material...

[Jesse]

Weather enthusiasts trivialize loss of life associated with extreme weather all the time. Playing the holier than thou role is pretty disengenuous.

 

Has nothing to do with that. The picture and the grass hut comments were in pretty bad taste. 

[Phil]

Speaking of needing new material...

You kinda walked into that.

[Front Ranger]

We certainly have grown to love it here... makes a difference.   So does getting older.

 

I don't feel trapped... we can travel and can certainly move it we want.   We just don't have any inclination to move.      

 

I envision a forum where I can agree with Jim and call him out on things I disagree with and its all fine.   Past history seems to be a problem for some people... but ironically not between Jim and myself.

 

 

[ShawniganLake]

Power outages up to about 10 000 on Vancouver island. Pretty good SE wind going.

[TT-SEA]

Dewey hit it on the head.

 

Whatever.

 

Most on here see right through it no matter the amount of spin you try.

 

Its all good, keep on keeping on..... whatever helps your conscience.

 

Spinning what?  My conscience?   

 

Nature is a fickle b*tch.    

 

1990 is a top analog.   And our GOA high is MIA.      

 

Whatever.    You want to think I hate Jim to keep it interesting then go ahead.  I respect him WAY more than some people on here.  '

[Jesse]

 

Careful, you'll anger Andrew!

[Deweydog]

Has nothing to do with that. The picture and the grass hut comments were in pretty bad taste.

I suppose.

[BLI snowman]

It wouldn't surprise me if there were more cat5's earlier in the 19th century. Coastal population was much smaller.

 

Also, cat4s used to be much more frequent.

 

Gets pretty hard to assess anything before satellites and actual recon data. Kind of a dart throwing exercise with regards to the intensity of many pre-1960s storms. NHC reanalysis has done the best that it can but there's lots of uncertainty.  Even a relatively recent storm like Audrey (1957) for example, was found to be way weaker in reanalysis than was originally estimated. I have to imagine there are lots of similar cases.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Power outages up to about 10 000 on Vancouver island. Pretty good SE wind going.

 

0 dead

[Front Ranger]

Spinning what?  My conscience?   

 

Nature is a fickle b*tch.    

 

1990 is a top analog.   And our GOA high is MIA.      

 

Whatever.    You want to think I hate Jim to keep it interesting then go ahead.  I respect him WAY more than some people on here.  

 

As long as the PDO keeps dropping, you're golden. Science.

[Phil]

Gets pretty hard to assess anything before satellites and actual recon data. Kind of a dart throwing exercise with regards to the intensity of many pre-1960s storms. NHC reanalysis has done the best that it can but there's lots of uncertainty. Even a relatively recent storm like Audrey (1957) for example, was found to be way weaker in reanalysis than was originally estimated. I have to imagine there are lots of similar cases.

That's true. Reconstructing based on storm surge and tree damage in wooded areas only goes so far.

[TT-SEA]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/pcp48.72.0000.gif

[HighlandExperience]

This hurricane will boost trumps chance of winning Florida I bet.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Weather enthusiasts trivialize loss of life associated with extreme weather all the time. Playing the holier than thou role is pretty disengenuous.

 

I bet half this forum would trade 283 deaths in Haiti for a good old fashioned 19th Century arctic outbreak!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This hurricane will boost trumps chance of winning Florida I bet.

 

That and not completing tanking in the debate Sunday...He set the bar pretty low! #ArtOfTheComeback

[GHweatherChris]

Spinning what? My conscience?

 

Nature is a fickle b*tch.

 

1990 is a top analog. And our GOA high is MIA.

 

Whatever. You want to think I hate Jim to keep it interesting then go ahead. I respect him WAY more than some people on here. '

I haven't even brought up Jim at all tonight.

 

I am talking about your over all shtick as of late, and others see right through it as well.

[Deweydog]

I bet half this forum would trade 283 deaths in Haiti for a good old fashioned 19th Century arctic outbreak!

Probably not, but I've never heard anyone here rationalize a "near miss" major winter storm with the fact the related loss of life won't occur.

 

People die. It's a sick, sad world and that fact is absolutely universal. Deep.

[TT-SEA]

I haven't even brought up Jim at all tonight.

 

I am talking about your over all shtick as of late, and others see right through it as well.

 

 

I am not even sure what you are seeing through.    Honestly no idea.    

 

My weather posts skew towards weather I like... I enjoy pointing out when things don't go as others expect.     

 

I love cold and snow.... love warm and sunny all summer.   What I am hiding?     

[Jesse]

Probably not, but I've never heard anyone here rationalize a "near miss" major winter storm with the fact the related loss of life won't occur.

 

People die. It's a sick, sad world and that fact is absolutely universal. Deep.

 

All true. But no reason to be a heartless prick about it. Although maybe I am making this appeal to the wrong person...

[GHweatherChris]

I am not even sure what you are seeing through. Honestly no idea.

Shocking!

 

Narcissists usually have that issue.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We are going to die. Might as well go out during a notable weather event!

[Front Ranger]

This hurricane will boost trumps chance of winning Florida I bet.

 

I don't see it. Unless Hillary is hanging out in a dinghy off Cape Canaveral.

[TT-SEA]

Shocking!

 

Narcissists usually have that issue.

 

 

Tell me what I am hiding Chris.   What is the big secret agenda I have?   Inform me.    See through what?

[Deweydog]

All true. But no reason to be a heartless prick about it. Although maybe I am making this appeal to the wrong person...

Just offering a teensy bit of perspective...

[Front Ranger]

We are going to die. Might as well go out during a notable weather event!

 

It would be somehow fitting for Jim Cantore to die getting struck by lightning in the midst of thunder snow. Following the likes of Steve Irwin and Paul Walker.

 

We've gone down a dark path tonight.

[Jesse]

Just offering a teensy bit of perspective...

 

You always seem to think people need that. Maybe they have plenty and still come to different conclusions than you. Scary thought, I know.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don't see it. Unless Hillary is hanging out in a dinghy off Cape Canaveral.

 

Yeah. I wish, but no.

[GHweatherChris]

Tell me what I am hiding Chris. What is the big secret agenda I have? Inform me. See through what?

Why get defensive, I am not the only one sees it, obviously.

 

Your shoulder shrug attitude lately is not genuine, you can't go from one extreme to another without question.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It would be somehow fitting for Jim Cantore to die getting struck by lightning in the midst of thunder snow. Following the likes of Steve Irwin and Paul Walker.

 

We've gone down a dark path tonight.

 

God I miss Paul Walker, but that was about the most ironic death imaginable.

 

Still remember the New Year's Eve party that year when they did the death montage. Some girl screamed "Paul Walker was to hot to die" when his face flashed across the screen. Followed a moment later by "Who the **** was Mandela?!" 

 

...Millenials...

[TT-SEA]

Why get defensive, I am not the only one sees it, obviously.

Then tell me what I am hiding.

[GHweatherChris]

Then tell me what I am hiding.

I edited my post, just like you.

[Deweydog]

I don't see it. Unless Hillary is hanging out in a dinghy off Cape Canaveral.

Those seas may induce virtigo. Last thing she needs is more dizziness and/or seizures.

[Jesse]

Are those lows in the mid-upper 40s I see in the forecast for early next week now?

 

That is well below average for mid-October using a 2014-2015 baseline!

[Jesse]

Really nice how the weekend and early next week has gradually trended cooler. What a change. 

[Deweydog]

Are those lows in the mid-upper 40s I see in the forecast for early next week now?

 

That is well below average for mid-October using a 2014-2015 baseline!

Coldest month this fall!

[BLI snowman]

Really nice how the weekend and early next week has gradually trended cooler. What a change. 

 

74/56 instead of 79/58 would be big news indeed.

 

We may even kick the 62 degree dewpoint can down the road a little further. Sticky spring awaits.

[TT-SEA]

I edited my post, just like you.

 

Well... then go ahead and assume some secret agenda.    I can't help you there.    I pretty much just say what I am thinking.    I have been trying to be nicer in my approach but that is worse I guess.    

[BLI snowman]

Tonight's rainfall appears to be in the process of disappointing. Only 0.10" so far, with our accumulation window probably ending around 6-7am.