December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

Euro says "no" ... trending warmer Weds.

 

ecmwf_T850_nwus_5.png

That's warmer? Looks cold to me! Am I wrong?

[Front Ranger]

Richmond, we did really well today. I always seem to have different amounts then YVR, a real micro climate one you get away from the airport.

 

How much snowfall has YVR seen this week?

[luvssnow_spokane]

That's warmer? Looks cold to me! Am I wrong?

from pervious runs... NOT horrible.

 

Here is a previous run - U make the call: 

 

 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The day 16 GEFS is going nuclear with the Scandi-Eurasian wavebreak.

 

That's the ideal loading pattern for a -AO/weak PV down the road.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/CA0441A8-000F-44E0-B30B-76ED0525C0C7_zpsftz8d2ue.png

 

So you are saying the 00z GFS ensembles are just setting the stage...

[Goducks09]

Probably when your balls fell into her purse?

 

Ouch.  I used to be so much more fun.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Ouch.  I used to be so much more fun.

and a deeper voice.

[Deweydog]

Hard to know quite where the Euro wanta to go...

[Goducks09]

That's warmer? Looks cold to me! Am I wrong?

 

Looks about the same as the GFS

[HighlandExperience]

00Z ECMWF shows a band of snow moving through King County on Monday morning with the modified arctic front.

 

Nice change. An improvement ! Can you post that map. 

[Phil]

So you are saying the 00z GFS ensembles are just setting the stage...

For something blocky (blockier)? Heck yeah.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I am liking the large scale setup on the euro... Next frame should be telling. 

[luminen]

How much snowfall has YVR seen this week?

 

They officially got 2.12" on Monday and probably at least that today. I'm surprised YVR is doing that well since it's at sea level and one of the more marine areas of the GVA.

[luvssnow_spokane]

YEP is sure was !! SCORE... Much better and possible moisture.   

 

 

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Block is plenty amplified but weaker on Euro. Looks like it will be cold, but not as cold as GFS.

[MossMan]

[MossMan]

Block is plenty amplified but weaker on Euro. Looks like it will be cold, but not as cold as GFS.

Special needs Euro

King GFS!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Block is plenty amplified but weaker on Euro. Looks like it will be cold, but not as cold as GFS.

I am okay with that as long as it brings snow!

[luvssnow_spokane]

You better not post another "nope" when the next frame comes

See above...

[luvssnow_spokane]

EURO Not going to be nearly as good cold wise as tonights GFS.... But not awful. The ridges just wants to setup shop to far east later in the run. 

[Deweydog]

Warning shot!

[snow_wizard]

All models appear to show some sort of C-Zone Sunday night.  Close call whether enough cold air would be here at that time to produce snow.

 

No question the GFS gets epically cold and the ensemble is the coldest yet.

[chopper 918]

Money shot!

[snow_wizard]

EURO Not going to be nearly as good cold wise as tonights GFS.... But not awful. The ridges just wants to setup shop to far east later in the run. 

 

if we get some snow and get Arctic air a ridge moving in right over us is not a bad thing at all.

[TT-SEA]

Making progress...

 

[snow_wizard]

I must be looking at a different run or something... I see a trace to maybe an inch, barely, on just the eastern edge of King County between 4AM-4PM Monday.

 

Calling it a band is kind of a stretch.

 

Don't take things too literally at this point.  The signal is there.

[TT-SEA]

All models appear to show some sort of C-Zone Sunday night.  Close call whether enough cold air would be here at that time to produce snow.

 

No question the GFS gets epically cold and the ensemble is the coldest yet.

 

 

ECMWF shows it on Monday morning actually.

[luvssnow_spokane]

if we get some snow and get Arctic air a ridge moving in right over us is not a bad thing at all.

Agreed, but that "some" snow better be at least 6 to 12inches.  

[Goducks09]

Winter cancel or King GFS?

[MossMan]

Well the trusty old NAM will set things straight! Comes out in what an hour or so?

[Deweydog]

Euro tries to put the block to bed.

 

Which is where everyone else should be!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Well the trusty old NAM will set things straight! Comes out in what an hour or so?

Thank God!! finally some real answers. 

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF dose give the Seattle area some snow around day 6.  Pretty nice run overall.  The really telling thing is the big 3 all get 850s down to -10 or lower for SEA.

[stuffradio]

Euro tries to put the block to bed.

 

Which is where everyone else should be!

Dad?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Euro tries to put the block to bed.

 

Which is where everyone else should be!

 

No doubt. Do we ever sleep.

[MossMan]

Euro tries to put the block to bed.

 

Which is where everyone else should be!

What about our massive non modified but pure Arctic blast at the end of the week? I can't sleep now...thanks a lot Matt. Now I need to watch an episode of Friends to calm down.

[Goducks09]

Yikes!  The ECMWF puts a damper on things.  More whiskey...

[luvssnow_spokane]

The ECMWF dose give the Seattle area some snow around day 6.  Pretty nice run overall.  The really telling thing is the big 3 all get 850s down to -10 or lower for SEA.

Yep, which is great. All we need is that final ingredient.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Yikes!  The ECMWF puts a damper on things.  More whiskey...

OR maybe you have had to much already.

[MossMan]

OR maybe you have had to much already.

Dad?

[luminen]

Lots of dads here.