2017 California/Southwest Weather Thread

[Guest happ]

Beautiful sunsets down here and rain coming ashore in the Bay Area; life is good.

 

78/ 57

[DareDuck]

Keeping my fingers crossed

 

http://mammothweather.com/2017/11/08/drier-than-normal-weather-pattern-for-the-southern-23-of-california-likley-to-continue-as-upper-jet-is-focused-over-northern-ca-expect-periods-of-wind-and-a-chance-of-snow-showers-thursday-and-aga/

There is some hope in the longer range models this morning as the new 11/8/17 12Z GFS control is showing more consolidated flow coming off Asia after mid month. At the same time, there is plenty of blocking in the -WPO region near the dateline. The are an increasing number of ensembles in the GFS showing some under cutting of the westerlies with the formation of a Kona Low developing around the 18th of November. It is possible that moisture may get picked up from this area by a deep positive tilt, long wave trof extending SW from British Columbia around the 20th/21st. If this does come together, it would be more of a southern latitude system with a tropical connection or “AR” with fairly high snow levels for Central CA. This may be followed by a colder system about the 23rd with the upper jet over Central CA as well.

For what ever its worth, the climate model, the CFSv2 is showing the period during week 2, which covers the 20th wet for Central CA.

Stay Tuned…the Dweebs got you covered!…….:-)

I’ve followed Howard for years. He may not be the most knowledgeable, but he knows the Sierra well and from what I’ve heard around Mammoth, he’s a stand up guy.

[Guest happ]

I’ve followed Howard for years. He may not be the most knowledgeable, but he knows the Sierra well and from what I’ve heard around Mammoth, he’s a stand up guy.

 

I just discovered Howard's discussions recently. Many California weather aficionados hope Howard is correct w/ this forecast but others disagree and suggest that high pressure will only strengthen along the entire West Coast during the second half of November.  

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1648-fall-2017-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=269854

[Anti Marine Layer]

(.. cross-reference.)

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1648-fall-2017-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=269854

 

[Guest happ]

 

(.. cross-reference.)

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1648-fall-2017-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=269854

 

 

Any distribution of cold air down into the middle latitudes is welcome.  Still waiting on the first sub 50F minimum which generally occurs after the passage of a frontal boundary.

[Guest happ]

Now it is official

 

[Guest happ]

If we can't have rain then a beautiful sunset will do [for a while]

 

73/ 59

 

 

NSW_SD Palm Desert yesterday

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

4:51 PM sunset today and we won't see another sunset time ending in 1 until December 29, when the sunset will also be 4:51 PM.

 

Warm afternoon today, but it quickly became cool and breezy by about 4 PM.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Map below shows difference between clock time and solar time. Places in green get dark way too early.

 

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/03/03/article-2572317-1C01C1F900000578-96_964x492.jpg

[Guest happ]

Some say November is when "Indian summer" weather occurs in California. Deciduous trees change color/ drop leaves while the weather is often sunny and warm. But frost rarely occurs this early in SoCal.  La Nina winters can be dry but also include periods of sub-freezing temps [generally in early Jan]. Onshore flow keeps nights mild; SST [mid/ upper 60's].    

[snow_wizard]

Warm winter?

 

DTVa@Weatherman

 

Not going to happen.

 

As for you guys...A persistent GOA based high pressure cell could spell a strong southern jet for CA this winter.  You may also see the northern stream during periods of extreme Western troughing.

 

I just noticed there is a huge mistake on that graphic you posted.  2014-15 was a Nino winter that was an absolute torch for the West.  It totally skewed the map.

[snow_wizard]

Recent photo of cirrus formation from Sinaloa [southern gulf of California]

 

@StormHour

 

Very cool pic!  It looks like they used software that made it look like a painting.

[Guest happ]

Not going to happen.

 

As for you guys...A persistent GOA based high pressure cell could spell a strong southern jet for CA this winter.  You may also see the northern stream during periods of extreme Western troughing.

 

I just noticed there is a huge mistake on that graphic you posted.  2014-15 was a Nino winter that was an absolute torch for the West.  It totally skewed the map.

 

Inconsistent rain seasons seem to contradict typical patterns of what constitutes a La Nina and/or El Nino winter. The Nino of 2015 was a total bust while the Nina in 2011 delivered abundant rainfall and cold temps. AR events are what we counting on. 

[richard mann]

http://www.proxigee.com/compass-rose.png

[richard mann]

Any distribution of cold air down into the middle latitudes is welcome.  Still waiting on the first sub 50F minimum which generally occurs after the passage of a frontal boundary.

 

.. An idea that I've noted with several years of having studied the, basically two-week period of either whether northward or southward leaning where considering the propensity of colder air more latitudinally more specifically "happ", ... 

 

.. is that these swifts basically occur synonymous with what are viewed and appreciated as, either whether a more "mock Spring", more as we move more into the warmer seasons out of the colder, or, more as with now, as we move from the warmer to the colder, an "Indian Summer".  

 

.. Just a perspective more general, to perhaps let you see [perhaps], into what might be happening now. More generally.

 

— More basically, and perhaps also for "Marine Layer" (above.), ... 

 

.. The main upper air either whether main "Pressure Heights"  - 500mb, 300mb,  or the "Pressure / Temp. Heights, more at 850mb, charts (each accessible thru the link for the "500s", here just below, .. are probably the best ones to look at where working to gage what I've said (and say. / project.) more generally.

 

http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/ua_hem.php?plot=n5&inv=0&t=cur 

 

... Once you've viewed, and so loaded all of the images (hours.) in for any one of these parameters, simply use your main "front and back", buttons to review them (better).

[Anti Marine Layer]

Thicker stratus deck this morning, so the inversion may be stronger than yesterday. Looks like the Pac NW is getting some good rainfall amounts.

[Guest happ]

NWS_LA ennui

 

"Saturday will be an unexciting weather day . . .  And then two days of pretty dull weather"

[Thunder98]

Not going to happen.

 

As for you guys...A persistent GOA based high pressure cell could spell a strong southern jet for CA this winter.  You may also see the northern stream during periods of extreme Western troughing.

 

I just noticed there is a huge mistake on that graphic you posted.  2014-15 was a Nino winter that was an absolute torch for the West.  It totally skewed the map.

Also seems like a brutal cold winter is brewing for the Midwest this Winter. International Falls, MN had smashed there daily record low this morning. the low was -14F and the previous record on this date was -6F on 1986.

[Anti Marine Layer]

It has been a boring November so far with no major storms, cold snaps, or heat waves.

 

The sunset was sort of pretty today, but I've seen nicer ones.

[Guest happ]

Took the train [light rail] to Santa Monica beach yesterday; beautiful day but too chilly for me to go swimming.

 

70/ 56

 

 

[Guest happ]

Courtesy Steve Johnson [Fresno] 

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Clear skies through the night made for a colder morning.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Tule fog season has begun for the Central Valley.

[Guest happ]

Clear skies through the night made for a colder morning.

 

First sub 50F minimums inland this morning 

Burbank: 49

Van Nuys 48

Rancho Bernardo: 46

[Guest happ]

@ZLabe

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

High for Fullerton today was exactly normal at 74 F and the low of 52 F was one degree above the normal 51 F.

[Guest happ]

High for Fullerton today was exactly normal at 74 F and the low of 52 F was one degree above the normal 51 F.

 

That is the average maximum for my location but average November minimum is 55F here.  My monthly averages are only 23 years old and may reflect the on-going warming of the climate. 

 

Saturday: 75/ 53

[Anti Marine Layer]

High clouds are very thick this morning. Looks like today will be cooler than yesterday.

[Thunder98]

The storm is looking better later this week. 

 

 

 

[Guest happ]

The storm is looking better later this week. 

 

 

 

It is encouraging but an inch in Cambria can often translate in very little if any rain by the time the front reaches Los Angeles.  If the CNRFC verifies, it should be good for you.  

[Anti Marine Layer]

Very thick high clouds all day today. Kind of like a dry atmospheric river.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Solar noon finally advances to 11:35 AM here tomorrow after 21 days straight of 11:34 AM PST. 13 of those days were 12:34 PM, of course, due to daylight saving time. As the Equation of Time begins to speed up its daily change rate, it will really begin to hinder the sunset times from getting much earlier.

[Guest happ]

If cloud shield clears we could get some pretty chilly temps tonight. 

 

69/ 55

[Guest happ]

Thanksgiving heat?

 

@DTVaWeatherman

 

[Guest happ]

Looking active in the GOA

 

76/ 54

 

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Still lots of high clouds today, although not as thick as they were yesterday.

 

They are creating a nice sunset tonight.

[Guest happ]

Speaking of sunsets, this photo was posted last week on Twitter of San Buenaventura beach on a beautiful November evening.

 

Courtesy of Nick Gianetti

 

[Guest happ]

Rain watch in effect but it appears that most if not all moisture will be limited to areas north of Pt Conception. 

 

Tuesday: 80/ 57

[Anti Marine Layer]

Lots of thick high clouds again to start the day. Yesterday it was sunny most of the day before some clouds began to move in late afternoon, ruining my chance to see if the sun was still visible at the time I left work.

 

Only 30 minutes of daylight lost from now until the Winter Solstice, although Friday's sunset time should be about the same as the Winter Solstice.