February 23rd-25th Winter Storm Potential

[Money]

And you and the front end and maybe more than that

Looks like it nails my area on the front end

[gosaints]

Looks like it nails my area on the front end

Ya i got the free weatherbell trial.  you get a foot at least on the 10:1 map it looks like.

[Money]

0z runs tonight:

 

NAM:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017022200/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

GFS:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017022200/114/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

GEM:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017022200/114/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Money]

Ukie is coming in south....

 

 

HR 48:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif

 

HR 72:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

[james1976]

2 foot lolipop in S MN. Crazy how much things can change in a couple hour drive

[Money]

NAM/GEM/GFS all have the low reaching northern IA around HR 72 while Ukie keeps it in the SE part of the state. 

[Steblow]

tip of the cap to the NAM

[Steblow]

NAM/GEM/GFS all have the low reaching northern IA around HR 72 while Ukie keeps it in the SE part of the state. 

 

4-8 for you?

[Money]

4-8 for you?

 

Who knows. Depends on the front end part of the system. NAM has temps at 33 while GFS/GEM are in the 30-32 range. Switch over to rain and a few inches on the backside. Interested to see what Dr. No says tonight and GFS ensembles...

[Money]

Still a lot of GEM ensembles that are farther SE.

 

The mean has the low in north central IL

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2017022200_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@moy_072.png

[Steblow]

Who knows. Depends on the front end part of the system. NAM has temps at 33 while GFS/GEM are in the 30-32 range. Switch over to rain and a few inches on the backside. Interested to see what Dr. No says tonight and GFS ensembles...

 

 

this is a tough one for sure.. its been fun though... feels like the old times again... I just need to darn know real soon whats sorta happening... if its only going to be 6" im not going up... now if its the potential for a foot plus with a good likelyhood im hitting the road by thursday AM.

 

 

You are searching hard for a se trend lol... when we need it its not there...  dont want it its there... its boinked me the last 3 yrs.

 

Euro will be interesting for sure... if it goes America than we know these shenanigans might be legit.. and then there is occlusion.,..shakes head...

[Grizzcoat]

Hopefully the UKIE can score a coup....

[Money]

this is a tough one for sure.. its been fun though... feels like the old times again... I just need to darn know real soon whats sorta happening... if its only going to be 6" im not going up... now if its the potential for a foot plus with a good likelyhood im hitting the road by thursday AM.

 

 

You are searching hard for a se trend... when we need it its not there...  dont want it its there... its boinked me the last 3 yrs.

 

Best part of winter is tracking storms. Ups and downs of model watching. You win some and you lose some. This might be the last one of the year tho so I'm pushing hard for it.

[Steblow]

Best part of winter is tracking storms. Ups and downs of model watching. You win some and you lose some. This might be the last one of the year tho so I'm pushing hard for it.

 

 

yeah youve never pushed this hard before... lol..  you bang models hard..nothing has changed with you there.. but your new attitude.. claps

[gosaints]

yeah youve never pushed this hard before... lol..  you bang models hard..nothing has changed with you there.. but your new attitude.. claps

Lol....

 

GEFS has something for everyone.  Wont clear anything up

[Money]

Lol....

 

GEFS has something for everyone.  Wont clear anything up

 

Yeah. Looks like the mean is less in the max areas and shifted it south a bit. Some hard cutters, some south like the Ukie etc 

 

Pretty significant shift south with the mean tho from 12z to 0z. 

[Steblow]

Yeah. Looks like the mean is less in the max areas and shifted it south a bit. Some hard cutters, some south like the Ukie etc 

 

 

how come you didnt like Grizzcoats post about here is to hoping the Ukie is right..  you need to pull out all the right tricks

[Money]

how come you didnt like Grizzcoats post about here is to hoping the Ukie is right..  you need to pull out all the right tricks

 

idk 

[gosaints]

how come you didnt like Grizzcoats post about here is to hoping the Ukie is right..  you need to pull out all the right tricks

Throw out a congrats MKE....   Wasnt congrats fargo the line that was always used during the couple winters where the NW trend always happened

[Money]

I remember that winter. Literally everything trended NW at the last second. Like every storm no matter what. You could always count on it.

[gosaints]

I remember that winter. Literally everything trended NW at the last second. Like every storm no matter what. You could always count on it.

I think there was a model upgrade that helped in those regards

[Steblow]

Throw out a congrats MKE....   Wasnt congrats fargo the line that was always used during the couple winters where the NW trend always happened

 

2007/08 trended everything  NW in to my backyard in mke.    Madison was the hot spot to be during that NW trend era

 

GHD Blizzard was the ultimate NW Trend..  It will never be topped for me.

[Steblow]

not many left invested in this one. Me/MSP  vs Saints/Money

 

If i didn't need an excuse to go back up north i could care less about this storm

[Money]

Yeah, not a lot of fun when there's no one around who cares.

 

Euro is farther south with the low through 42 

[Money]

South/weaker and colder. Good hit for gosaints and here as well (on the front end) 

 

991 MB L in N. MO at HR 60 

[Money]

Weaker with QPF as well tho

 

2-3 for MSP

1-2 for NW WI

12+ for gosaints

6 ish for GB

 

Good hit for Northern Nebraska, southern/eastern MN up towards central WI with 10-14+ 

 

Low tracks from Northern MO/Southern IA to NW IL and then towards Milwaukee. 

[Stormgeek]

Tomorrow's 12z runs are a big set. Should have the storm on shore and sampled. Hopefully that leads to a better consensus at the very least.

[Steblow]

could tell at 48 it wasnt going to get it done... well that just muds my pants up more...se trend haunts me on.  probably need to be loking at that lead turd to see how far it lets the low dig before ejecting... seems its been more fav this set of runs for those not wanting congrats team ME/MSP.    I'm overtired and rambling.  Good night

[Money]

could tell at 48 it wasnt going to get it done... well that just muds my pants up more...se trend haunts me on.  probably need to be loking in at that lead turd to see how far it lets the low dig before ejecting... seems its been more fav this set of runs for those not wanting congrats team ME/MSP.    I'm overtired and rambling.  Good night

 

Yup. GB mentioned it in their AFD yesterday that the wave tomorrow will determine where this goes. Also said it's a complex setup and changes were likely to happen. 

[Grizzcoat]

[Stormgeek]

Pick a side my friends, it appears we have one hell of a showdown going on here. Obviously I like the GFS/NAM because they bury me, but the Euro is hell bent on this track and has been pretty consistent....

[Money]

ecmwfued_rapid-null--usnc-84-C-frozentot10k_white.png

 

Do you have the freezing rain map by any chance? Thanks.

[Steblow]

almost looks like the nam/gfs snow maps

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Good night all

[Grizzcoat]

Do you have the freezing rain map by any chance? Thanks.

I do not.

[james1976]

Is Euro been holding steady unlike GFS?

[Tom]

RPM model keeps it mostly snow for MN and rain/snow line creeps up towards GRB in WI....parts of IA do well also...

 

Meantime, 06z GFS...ticked SE slightly with the snow in MN/WI

 

 

[james1976]

Nice lolipop out by Sioux City

[james1976]

Nice carve out around NE IA. Geez

[Tom]

06z GEFS mean precip...that's a lot of juice in NW IA/S/C MN and WI...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017022206/gfs-ens_apcpn_us_15.png

[Tom]

06z GEFS High Rez mean...GoSaints/MSP near the epicenter...dang, that is a sharp cut off on the southern end...