Niko Posted October 21, 2017 Report Share Posted October 21, 2017 The coldest it has gotten so far this fall season at GRR is 40° this is the latest in the fall without getting into the 30’s at Grand Rapids since 1914 when it happened on October 25th The average first 39° or colder low is on September 23rd with a range of August 30th (1976) to October 25th (1914) Wow....that's absurd! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 21, 2017 Report Share Posted October 21, 2017 As I cut my very green thick lush lawn, sweating once again! Trees are colorful, but otherwise there's little that looks or feels like autumn. #endlesssummer gonna crash hard! Busy day but wanted to check in on this week's action, appreciate the updates! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 21, 2017 Report Share Posted October 21, 2017 Wow....that's absurd! I rang in Oct with a 35F morning, so I'm good Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted October 21, 2017 Report Share Posted October 21, 2017 12z ecmwf took away the system late in the week. From huge to almost nothing in hours lol. I should be used to it but sucks when they do that 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 21, 2017 Report Share Posted October 21, 2017 12z ecmwf took away the system late in the week. From huge to almost nothing in hours lol. I should be used to it but sucks when they do thatWe still get the cold. No need to hope for snow in October. Besides, a northerly shift will give us flakes. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 21, 2017 Report Share Posted October 21, 2017 It's looking like my garden will go kaput at the end of the week. The euro has 3-4 days with highs in the 40s, with a couple nights down in the 20s. I hope my hummingbird leaves before then. It doesn't use the feeders, so it'll be in big trouble if the plants freeze and it's still here. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 21, 2017 Report Share Posted October 21, 2017 I rang in Oct with a 35F morning, so I'm goodNot bad at all. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 21, 2017 Report Share Posted October 21, 2017 It's looking like my garden will go kaput at the end of the week. The euro has 3-4 days with highs in the 40s, with a couple nights down in the 20s. I hope my hummingbird leaves before then. It doesn't use the feeders, so it'll be in big trouble if the plants freeze and it's still here.I cool down substantially also. High 40's and lows in the low 30's, need I say 20's???!!! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 21, 2017 Report Share Posted October 21, 2017 Currently in the low 70s under mostly cloudy skies. Not a lot of sunshine today. Looks like they busted on the sun. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 21, 2017 Report Share Posted October 21, 2017 From NOAA: Man, if it was later in November, look-out SMI.......Depending on the eventual track of the surface low, high winds mayalso come into play for at least a portion of the area. Thisscenario will highly be dependent on the surface low track. For now,agree with the thinking of Weather Prediction Center and will sidewith a track favoring a blend of the 12z GFS/ECMWF, which takes thelow just east of the area.Forecast becomes more uncertain heading into Tuesday as the likelysub 990 hPa low pressure lifts north into Ontario. GFS continueswith a more progressive solution, while the ECMWF stalls the lowsolidly in the mid 980s hPa in the vicinity of the Straits, whichwould lead to a prolonged period of deformation rain showers andgusty winds continuing into Wednesday. Temperatures will trend backtowards normal after Sunday, with highs Monday in the 60s and in the50s Tuesday, with lows generally in the 40s.While model guidance is now in much better agreement with theoverall synoptic pattern accompanying this low pressure system,there are mesoscale factors that have yet to be resolved and willplay a significant factor in the intensity of impacts we may face.Still, interests in southeast Michigan should continue to pay closeattention to the forecast over the coming days, as a more clearerpicture evolves. @Jaster,Ton of snow for UBY and mine, has this been a little deeper into Novemba!!!! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 21, 2017 Report Share Posted October 21, 2017 Tbh, I am really liking the way these storms are entering the picture so far. Idk, but, from what I can see, this could be a Winter remembered for big, to huge storms for a lot of members on here. Something we haven't seen for quite sometime. -NAO will be doing its job finally. Ofc, I must admit that suppression of storm systems always concerns me during Winter as well, but, I am not going to let that concern me now. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 21, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 21, 2017 The coldest anomalies next Fri-Sat will be featured in the central CONUS of N.A. compared to the entire Northern Hemisphere... http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017102112/nh/eps_t2m_anom_nh_156.png http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017102112/nh/eps_t2m_anom_nh_180.png http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017102112/nh/eps_t2m_anom_nh_204.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 21, 2017 Report Share Posted October 21, 2017 ...A Major Shot of Cold Air Projected to Arrive Late Next Week... The Central Plains has enjoyed a stretch of abnormally warm weather the past few days. That will be a distant memory late next week as the region is compensated by a stretch of unseasonably cold weather. Some forecast guidance is indicating the possibility that high temperatures could struggle to reach 40 degrees over much of north central Kansas and south central Nebraska next Friday and Saturday. In addition...widespread low temperatures below freezing are likely both mornings. The coldest morning will be Saturday... with lows in the 20s. This would end the growing season over north central Kansas...where widespread freezing temperatures have not occurred yet this fall. This air will be cold enough that some areas could see the first snowflakes of the season...but it is important to emphasize that accumulating snow currently looks very unlikely. Please continue to monitor the latest forecasts from the National Weather Service in Hastings via our webpage or NOAA Weather Radio.GID using their usual harsh wording routine in regards to the cold shot next week. Not sure if it's unseasonable, we will be about 15 degrees away from records, but definitely will be roughly 15 degrees below normal. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted October 21, 2017 Report Share Posted October 21, 2017 Weather potentially turns cold and cloudy with some snow in International Falls next weekend 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 21, 2017 Report Share Posted October 21, 2017 Weather potentially turns cold and cloudy with some snow in International Falls next weekend That 1-3 looks nice. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 21, 2017 Report Share Posted October 21, 2017 Current readings at 65F under mostly to partly cloudy skies. Its a fairly mild late October evening out there. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted October 21, 2017 Report Share Posted October 21, 2017 18z gfs getting stronger with clipper next weekend and more south but still just north of Omaha lol. Baby steps! 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 22, 2017 Report Share Posted October 22, 2017 Been cleaning out my eaves troughs and roof patching where I had an issue with last weekend's deluge and it's none too soon after reading GRR's AFD. Marshall could get hit with another 3-6" of RN early in the week. Nothing like trial by fire of my handiwork.. "For Monday and Monday night...slug of heavy QPF expected as lowmoves north with some embedded thunder possible as totalsapproach .50. Precipitable water is approaching 1.75 inches whichis impressive for late October. Expect an inch or two acrosseastern zones with higher amounts possible. Excessive rain of 3 to5 inches is possible across the SE CWA if warm conveyor beltfeature stalls there for several hours." I also like their mention of possible storm warnings on Lake Michigan, and some wet flakes further north. GEM has a sub 990 mb SLP passing just east of me and then spins in NMI for 24 hrs. I don't need to exaggerate when I say that if that played out, how epic it would be in the cold season for most if not all of Pure Michigan. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 22, 2017 Report Share Posted October 22, 2017 So, got new phone and site won't let me post images. Any ideas why? It's a Note 8. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 22, 2017 Report Share Posted October 22, 2017 Been cleaning out my eaves troughs and roof patching where I had an issue with last weekend's deluge and it's none too soon after reading GRR's AFD. Marshall could get hit with another 3-6" of RN early in the week. Nothing like trial by fire of my handiwork.. "For Monday and Monday night...slug of heavy QPF expected as lowmoves north with some embedded thunder possible as totalsapproach .50. Precipitable water is approaching 1.75 inches whichis impressive for late October. Expect an inch or two acrosseastern zones with higher amounts possible. Excessive rain of 3 to5 inches is possible across the SE CWA if warm conveyor beltfeature stalls there for several hours." I also like their mention of possible storm warnings on Lake Michigan, and some wet flakes further north. GEM has a sub 990 mb SLP passing just east of me and then spins in NMI for 24 hrs. I don't need to exaggerate when I say that if that played out, how epic it would be in the cold season for most if not all of Pure Michigan.This would have been a lot of snow. Its taking an excellent track. Just east of my area. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 22, 2017 Report Share Posted October 22, 2017 Color here in SEMI is getting close to near peak. There are some bare trees as well. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 22, 2017 Report Share Posted October 22, 2017 Color here in SEMI is getting close to near peak. There are some bare trees as well.We finally today are seeing trees bursting into color! Too bad viewing conditions aren't looking very good! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 22, 2017 Report Share Posted October 22, 2017 @ Tom CFS for Nov did a radical flip over to cold across CAN 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 22, 2017 Report Share Posted October 22, 2017 My Astros are going to the World Series! I have been diehard for them since we moved to Houston in 2004. After our pennant in '05, I had to deal with 8 years of us sucking, but stuck with them through. Words cannot describe how awesome this feels. I had to hijack the thread to say that. 4 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 22, 2017 Report Share Posted October 22, 2017 We finally today are seeing trees bursting into color! Too bad viewing conditions aren't looking very good!Next week with windy conditions expected, most leaves will be falling off. So, yup, viewing conditions will not be too spectacular, but, not too bad either. Tbh, it could be a lot better. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 22, 2017 Report Share Posted October 22, 2017 My Astros are going to the World Series! I have been diehard for them since we moved to Houston in 2004. After our pennant in '05, I had to deal with 8 years if us sucking, but stuck with them through. Words cannot describe how awesome this feels. I had to hijack the thread to say that.Congrats man! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 22, 2017 Report Share Posted October 22, 2017 Noticeably milder tonight than last night. Lows might remain in the upper 40s. More 70s tomorrow and that's it! Colder air will make a visit to stay for good. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted October 22, 2017 Report Share Posted October 22, 2017 GFS says first flakes next Friday here! 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 22, 2017 Report Share Posted October 22, 2017 @ Jaster, 12z Euro spinning up a 978mb SLP HR 72...1978 coincidence? Ha! Oh, the synchronicities...Hahaha!! Missed this earlier. Yeah, but Cat-5 storms only hit mby on Jan 26-27 lol, so it better come back on those dates.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 22, 2017 Report Share Posted October 22, 2017 GFS says first flakes next Friday here! GFS and Euro are taking turns teasing us. Wonder if that'll be a theme this year. Seriously though, I can see many locations in this region getting light ( 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2017 So, got new phone and site won't let me post images. Any ideas why? It's a Note 8.You might have to scroll to the bottom of the page when you sign in and click on "Full Version"...that will allow you to view the site as if you were online. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2017 @ Tom CFS for Nov did a radical flip over to cold across CAN summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201711.gif.f326341e2ee90610d8e1579283e29765.gifIndeed, saw that yesterday...what's even more interesting, notice the NE PAC waters...they are warm and show no colder waters. This is very interesting if these trends should persist along with a Bearing Sea trough. 5 Days ago, they were cold... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.SST.20171015.201711.gif Here is today's run... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.SST.20171022.201711.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20171022.201711.gif My Astros are going to the World Series! I have been diehard for them since we moved to Houston in 2004. After our pennant in '05, I had to deal with 8 years of us sucking, but stuck with them through. Words cannot describe how awesome this feels. I had to hijack the thread to say that. Congrats! That city needs something to cheer about after the devastation from Harvey. Good luck! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2017 It's another rather warm and a touch humid (65F/56F), breezy late October morning, which is running close to 10F above normal for the month. ORD has been on an extended streak of AN days (42). This, of course, will come to an abrupt end by Tuesday around here. All good things must come to an end and with that, so will the growing season for many farmers/growers by this coming weekend. The evolution of the developing LRC pattern is nothing short but a spectacular show of blocking, large storms and an active pattern. Every day I turn on the comp, the data that continues to come in, has me extremely fascinated at the magnitude of high latitude blocking and the notable long term long wave trough that is evidently setting up shop smack dab in the middle of our nation. With that being said, who ordered snow per the 00z Euro all the way down south???? OKwx is gonna like this pattern this season! http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017102200/tx/ecmwf_acc_snow_tx_168.png 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2017 Has anyone noticed how almost every system (except for the Oct 6th-7th storm ) has been a slow mover?? This season will in all likelihood (if nothing drastic happens) end up producing slow moving wintry systems. That alone, is going to be a drastic change compared to the past, oh, say, 5+ years??? Nearly every storm since about the 2012-13 season has zipped on by but the trends over this month and looking ahead are for storms to get blocked up in the pattern. Models will always have a tough time figuring out where the blocking develops even 3 days out so keep that in the back of your mind when we track storm systems. With the blocking, will come surprises...whether they are good or bad for your back yard is, of course, what brings the excitement and curiosity when the new model runs come in. Giddy up boys and girls...this is going to be a fun season! http://img46.laughinggif.com/pic/HTTPS9tZWRpYS5naXBoeS5jb20vbWVkaWEvYU1oNTlhS1I4dmpkQy9naXBoeS5naWYlog.gif http://img67.laughinggif.com/pic/HTTPS9tLnBvcGtleS5jby85YzQ5NzAvZUxOOFEuZ2lm.gif 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 22, 2017 Report Share Posted October 22, 2017 TWC has snowshowers mix with rain for my area Nov1st ............Tis the season. It gets quite chilly also. A lot of members will be feeling the chill. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 22, 2017 Report Share Posted October 22, 2017 I believe these will be the last 70s for the season until next year again. My projected high is 73F with lots of rain and wind for the next 2 days. Slow moving systems thus far this Autumn pointing to a great sign for our upcoming Winter season. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2017 Overnight runs of the GEFS/EPS continue to lock in Winter from Halloween weekend into the first week of November. If that is the case, then the pullback that I was anticipating is probably not going to happen. By the time we get towards the 11/11 period, this may be a mid-winter pattern for some of us on here and if it goes to the extreme, oh boy, we are in for Ol' Man Winters onslaught according to the BSR rule. 00z EPS members are looking more wintry for our members across the board here. The signal is actually a bit mind boggling if you ask me. Haven't seen maps like these so early in the season in a very long time, in fact, probably never, since I've been really tracking the weather as much as I do now. #Winteriscoming Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2017 The seasonal transition of the Northern Hemispheric pattern continues to develop, allowing the continued intensification of the PAC jet stream, esp out in East Asia as cold Siberian air funnels off the widespread snow cover. Simultaneously, as the jet intensifies it also shifts a little farther south in time. Check out the 00z GEFS jet stream forecasted winds over Japan and how it has a SW/NE flow out towards south of the Aleutians. This, my friends, is going to translate into fun, fun fun come November. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 22, 2017 Report Share Posted October 22, 2017 @ westMJim Do ya have any snowshowers in your forecast down the road?! Mine saids snowshowers mix w rain for Nov. 1st. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 22, 2017 Report Share Posted October 22, 2017 Overnight runs of the GEFS/EPS continue to lock in Winter from Halloween weekend into the first week of November. If that is the case, then the pullback that I was anticipating is probably not going to happen. By the time we get towards the 11/11 period, this may be a mid-winter pattern for some of us on here and if it goes to the extreme, oh boy, we are in for Ol' Man Winters onslaught according to the BSR rule. 00z EPS members are looking more wintry for our members across the board here. The signal is actually a bit mind boggling if you ask me. Haven't seen maps like these so early in the season in a very long time, in fact, probably never, since I've been really tracking the weather as much as I do now. #WinteriscomingMy forecast during that timeframe has snowshowers! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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