October 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

I am already seeing more and more bare trees in my area.  Most likely by months end, 90% will be nude.

[Niko]

@ Tom,

 

Are you seeing any bare trees yet in your neck of the woods?!

[westMJim]

I am already seeing more and more bare trees in my area.  Most likely by months end, 90% will be nude.

In the Grand Rapids metro area while many trees had lost leaves (some are almost bare but not many) during the September dry spell that has slowed downed.  And here the trees still have many leaves on them and now are running behind on the color change.  I think the leaves will now hang on until we get a real hard freeze. 

[Tom]

@ Tom,

 

Are you seeing any bare trees yet in your neck of the woods?!

Some of the earlier trees that began changing color in Sept are shedding leaves relatively quick of late.  Not completely bare, but getting there.  I think after the cooler week next week things will turn the corner around here.  Many parts of N WI/N MN already past peak and turning bare.

[jaster220]

Some of the earlier trees that began changing color in Sept are shedding leaves relatively quick of late.  Not completely bare, but getting there.  I think after the cooler week next week things will turn the corner around here.  Many parts of N WI/N MN already past peak and turning bare.

 

In the Grand Rapids metro area while many trees had lost leaves (some are almost bare but not many) during the September dry spell that has slowed downed.  And here the trees still have many leaves on them and now are running behind on the color change.  I think the leaves will now hang on until we get a real hard freeze. 

 

Thinking due to the feast or famine moisture cycle this warm season, we're not going to see that great of a color season tbh. Seems like every time a new batch of trees lights up, within a few days the leafs are half brown and just dropping in that state. The heavy rains didn't help ofc, and now we get this stiff SW winds turning the leafs over on a sunny day so you see the bottom of the leafs more than the topside. Then all these trees that are remaining fully green due to the lack of any real frost may just get slam-froze when it does get cold and also join the "brown-n-drop" ranks. We'll see, but that's my call from this point. The last two mild autumns were actually very beautiful for colors, so we were prolly due a crappy one. 

[westMJim]

With 17 days into the October 2017 record books GRR with a mean October temperature of 60.2° (+6.8°) will have to see just how cold it gets towards the end of the month. Anyway, this should be the warmest October here since 2007. This October is still in the running for a top ten warmest (depending on how cold it gets at the end.

Nice and sunny here and 60° With all of the recent rains the grass is now all green and growing here and I will have to get out and cut it this week. I am not sure when the last time I cut the grass was I know it has been a long time.

[Niko]

Some of the earlier trees that began changing color in Sept are shedding leaves relatively quick of late.  Not completely bare, but getting there.  I think after the cooler week next week things will turn the corner around here.  Many parts of N WI/N MN already past peak and turning bare.

That is what I am thinking also. My area next week will look a lot different once that chilly air arrives.

[Niko]

In the Grand Rapids metro area while many trees had lost leaves (some are almost bare but not many) during the September dry spell that has slowed downed.  And here the trees still have many leaves on them and now are running behind on the color change.  I think the leaves will now hang on until we get a real hard freeze. 

The strange thing about my area is that I haven't had a real hard freeze yet and some trees are already going bare.

[Niko]

With 17 days into the October 2017 record books GRR with a mean October temperature of 60.2° (+6.8°) will have to see just how cold it gets towards the end of the month. Anyway, this should be the warmest October here since 2007. This October is still in the running for a top ten warmest (depending on how cold it gets at the end.

Nice and sunny here and 60° With all of the recent rains the grass is now all green and growing here and I will have to get out and cut it this week. I am not sure when the last time I cut the grass was I know it has been a long time.

Same here!

[Tom]

Based on the BSR rule, I have targeted the period between the 23rd-25th of a storm system to form somewhere in the mid-south/S Midwest and track near the OV/Apps.  The models have been having a tough time trying to figure out what happens to the energy coming onshore and into the Rockies this weekend.  Cut-off lows are typically the hardest to pinpoint on track 5+ days out anyway so as we get closer to this period, I think we will see the GFS/Euro come back to storm system farther west where they are now.

 

00z Canadian flashed an interesting scenario...its showing the southern energy phasing with the diving northern branch over the OV/Apps...

 

 

 

 

[Niko]

Currently @ 61F. Plenty of Sunshine. Beautiful!

[Tom]

I see you 12z Euro, I see you inching towards my track...I’ll post some maps a bit later as I’m on the phone.

[Tom]

We are now entering inside the Day 5-6 period where models are somewhat better at figuring out the pattern heading towards the target period of the 23rd-25th storm potential.  Much was stated on here to be patient and allow the models to convey their "ideas" as we see the new LRC pattern develop.  Low and behold, all the models in today's 12z suite runs show the potential of a major buckling trough centered over the OV/Apps/GL's during this period as the pattern literally snaps.

 

Let's dive in...

 

Today, the 12z Euro is beginning to latch onto the idea of a farther west track with next week's storm potential.  Each consecutive run, the Euro is picking up on the trough diving down from the north and "picking" up the southern cut-off low near the Texarkana region during the Mon/Tue period.  With that being said, it begins to phase with this energy and by the 24th/25th we have a neg tilted trough over the S Midwest/OV region.

 

Notice the last 3 runs of the Euro below...this is going to be a fun storm to track over the coming days.  Yuuuge....potential...LOL

 

[Tom]

@ LNK-WX...the Euro is back with the cold for Halloween weekend!  15-20F below normal departures all across the plains/midwest by Fri-Sat and likely into Sunday.  

 

FWIW, the Euro is now seeing a -NAO pattern and N ATL block develop early next week.  This will also be a difficulty for the models to figure out with next weeks pattern going forward.

 

Regarding pattern recognition, check out the placement of the warming that begins to take shape across both NW NAMER & south of Greenland in the last frames below....

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

 

 

Now, look at these 12z Euro 500mb maps below for Day 7-10...coincidence???

[Minny_Weather]

@ LNK-WX...the Euro is back with the cold for Halloween weekend! 15-20F below normal departures all across the plains/midwest by Fri-Sat and likely into Sunday.

 

FWIW, the Euro is now seeing a huge -NAO pattern and N ATL block develop early next week. This will also be a difficulty for the models to figure out with next weeks pattern going forward.

 

Regarding pattern recognition, check out the placement of the warming that begins to take shape across both NW NAMER & south of Greenland in the last frames below....

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

 

 

Now, look at these 12z Euro 500mb maps below for Day 7-10...coincidence???

I saw that! Looks like we have our first real model battle for the new pattern, and this is huge. Introduce Winter in October, or hold it off for the foreseeable future.

[jaster220]

00z Canadian flashed an interesting scenario...its showing the southern energy phasing with the diving northern branch over the OV/Apps...

Which NEVER happens

 

(Psst..don't look at Nov 1-2, 1966 surf and 500 mb maps)

[Tom]

I saw that! Looks like we have our first real model battle for the new pattern, and this is huge. Introduce Winter in October, or hold it off for the foreseeable future.

How about...introduce late Nov in late October, relax to near normal in early November, then Winter it comes back around 11/11 through at least Thanksgiving week!  I think we will have a brief relaxation in the early parts of November, but according to the Re-curivng Typhoon rule we will see something brewing up again around the 31st or early days of November.  

 

The BSR rule takes over and around 11/11 when I think the pattern whips into winter I'd imagine.  This is when I think an early winter tease shapes up for a couple weeks.  A few things ongoing in the atmosphere suggest so, esp if the SSW event takes place by months end.  It also will depend on how strong it is.

[Tom]

Finally, the 18z GFS is trending towards a major buckling trough next Tue/Wed.  If this storm continues to show up in the models and is forecast to be as strong as it looks now, I may want to start our first Autumn Storm Thread for this one.  At this juncture, seems like a sizable and potent storm that also has potential to usher in some first snows of the season near the Lakes and Apps.

[Tom]

I had a feeling the new LRC would be throwing surprises, just like this storm showing up next week.  From no storm just a few days ago, to a potential major Autumn storm.  The fascination of wx and tracking storm systems...tis the season!

[Minny_Weather]

How about...introduce late Nov in late October, relax to near normal in early November, then Winter it comes back around 11/11 through at least Thanksgiving week!  I think we will have a brief relaxation in the early parts of November, but according to the Re-curivng Typhoon rule we will see something brewing up again around the 31st or early days of November.  

 

The BSR rule takes over and around 11/11 when I think the pattern whips into winter I'd imagine.  This is when I think an early winter tease shapes up for a couple weeks.  A few things ongoing in the atmosphere suggest so, esp if the SSW event takes place by months end.  It also will depend on how strong it is.

I'm fine with normal or even October weather for a bit in early November. It's hard to hold below-normal temps for more than a couple weeks at a time here anyway.

 

With that being said, I don't think we will be held in a cold grip from 11/11 to Thanksgiving in Nebraska. In fact, that would be a miracle. I think we will have more of a 2014-like November, except with shorter but still very potent cold blasts and respectable snow for November.

[jaster220]

I had a feeling the new LRC would be throwing surprises, just like this storm showing up next week. From no storm just a few days ago, to a potential major Autumn storm. The fascination of wx and tracking storm systems...tis the season!

Surprises? More like trying to give me heart palpitations LOL

 

First we get that sneaky (by today's std) CO Low in a series of them, which is very quickly followed by another more intense storm. Now this potential Gomex phase-bomb!

 

If this were winter, I'd be losing a ton of sleep this past week, that's for sure!

[Tom]

Surprises? More like trying to give me heart palpitations LOL

 

First we get that sneaky (by today's std) CO Low in a series of them, which is very quickly followed by another more intense storm. Now this potential Gomex phase-bomb!

 

If this were winter, I'd be losing a ton of sleep this past week, that's for sure!

I was thinking about this feature today as well.  Not sure if its a true GOMEX low, but it sure is close to it.  Maybe in future cycles it will dig farther south as the jet strengthens as well as the seasonal variations.

 

In other news, looks like OK is in line for some severe storms this weekend from this piece of energy.

 

[jaster220]

I was thinking about this feature today as well. Not sure if its a true GOMEX low, but it sure is close to it. Maybe in future cycles it will dig farther south as the jet strengthens as well as the seasonal variations.

 

In other news, looks like OK is in line for some severe storms this weekend from this piece of energy.

 

To my understanding, anything south of a panhandle hook track more or less originates in the south part of one of the Gulf States and qualifies. I could be wrong. I'll look it up. Curiosity's got me

 

Harder to locate than I thought! Here's a couple tho:

 

 

 

 

[jaster220]

I think based on those, it's supposed to be over the Gulf at some point. That 2nd map is Cosgrove's and I need to find the link to the descriptions. Looks like #22 would be the GOMEX LOW

[jaster220]

I see you 12z Euro, I see you inching towards my track...I’ll post some maps a bit later as I’m on the phone.

When I saw even this, it screamed potential!

 

 

[jaster220]

Autumn of '89 showing itself again..

 

 

 

[Niko]

Clear and gorgeous outside. Just finished my cocktail party. Most of my guests were outside my patio enjoying this beautiful evening. Awesome night!

[Niko]

Looks like a more potent rainstorm early next week, although, a cold rainstorm that is. What also caught my eye is that a warm-up begins again as we enter early November?! I dont think I buy that.

[Niko]

From NOAA:

 

The energy that lead to the digging trough in the western CONUS and
amplified ridge for SE Michigan most of this week will begin to
impact us late Sunday into Monday. Ample moisture ahead of the
surface front will lead to a decent chance for showers overnight
Sunday. Cooler air will begin to filter in behind the front; highs
Monday into the mid 60s and a lingering chance of showers.

Following this front on Tuesday into Wednesday, an upper trough will
dig through the Great Lakes and much of the eastern CONUS. This will
lead to the coolest temperatures of the season so far, highs falling
to the upper 40s and lower 50s by Wednesday, with generally
unsettled conditions and a chance for showers through midweek.

[Minny_Weather]

Looks like a more potent rainstorm early next week, although, a cold rainstorm that is. What also caught my eye is that a warm-up begins again as we enter early November?! I dont think I buy that.

I'm buying it. I don't think all of November is cold, but that we start out warm across the region then around the middle of the month we get the first taste of Winter across the sub.

[Niko]

I'm buying it. I don't think all of November is cold, but that we start out warm across the region then around the middle of the month we get the first taste of Winter across the sub.

I'm not. Its too soon. It will prolly change. 

 

I'd rather have the cold come during Thanksgiving week along with some snow, especially on "Black Friday" to get ya into the Christmas shopping mood.

[Minny_Weather]

Better make a thread Tom!

[jaster220]

 

 

Better make a thread Tom!

 

Expect that to be a common theme this winter. Hopefully not off of 384 hr maps tho 

[Tom]

Overnight Euro run has a complete phase of the big storm system early next week.  It's also showing a strong ATL ridge which is allowing the piece of energy that forms in the deep south near Texarkana, to track almost due N/NE up the Mississippi river towards the lower lakes region. This is quite the system the Euro is flashing.  If this were winter, this would be a track I would doodle and wishcast for!

 

Big time rain maker...

[Tom]

Soo much data to analyze with the evolving weather pattern.  I must say, this is going to be an interesting season tracking storm systems.  With that being said, here are the latest JMA weeklies which continue to agree with the CFSv2/Euro weeklies that the overall warm pattern we have been in is about to say "good bye".

 

Several things to point out: 1) Bearing Sea trough  2) West coast Ridge  3) ATL Ridge

 

The current state of the SST's across the entire PAC ocean...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201710.D1812_gls.png

[jaster220]

This is something I've been monitoring since last week to see what happens with the strong PAC energy as it hits the west between the 20th-22nd period.  I knew it would cut underneath the developing block in Canada but was unsure how it would actually evolve.  Euro almost always tends cut-off energy in the SW and this is likely its bias while GFS is too fast.  Something likely in the middle of the 2 solutions will be the outcome.  I'd like to see how this energy is handled over the next few days as it will be another important piece to the puzzle with the developing LRC.

 

12z Euro/EPS still on board with a cool down next week, in fact, its trending colder near the Lakes for next Mon/Tue.  As you stated above, we just need to be patient and see how this pattern evolves as the PAC jet energy approaches closer to the west coast in the coming days.  Not only that, but the N Atlantic blocking will "fickle" with the models as well as the record MJO impluse.  Lot's going on in the atmosphere, including, but not limited to, the Strat warming ongoing over N Canada.

 

Been a busier day today so haven't posted much.  Need to take a napski to catch up on some sleep.  I've been early rising lately and the lack of sleep is catching up.

 

We are now entering inside the Day 5-6 period where models are somewhat better at figuring out the pattern heading towards the target period of the 23rd-25th storm potential.  Much was stated on here to be patient and allow the models to convey their "ideas" as we see the new LRC pattern develop.  Low and behold, all the models in today's 12z suite runs show the potential of a major buckling trough centered over the OV/Apps/GL's during this period as the pattern literally snaps.

 

Let's dive in...

 

Today, the 12z Euro is beginning to latch onto the idea of a farther west track with next week's storm potential.  Each consecutive run, the Euro is picking up on the trough diving down from the north and "picking" up the southern cut-off low near the Texarkana region during the Mon/Tue period.  With that being said, it begins to phase with this energy and by the 24th/25th we have a neg tilted trough over the S Midwest/OV region.

 

Notice the last 3 runs of the Euro below...this is going to be a fun storm to track over the coming days.  Yuuuge....potential...LOL

 

Finally, the 18z GFS is trending towards a major buckling trough next Tue/Wed.  If this storm continues to show up in the models and is forecast to be as strong as it looks now, I may want to start our first Autumn Storm Thread for this one.  At this juncture, seems like a sizable and potent storm that also has potential to usher in some first snows of the season near the Lakes and Apps.

 

Overnight Euro run has a complete phase of the big storm system early next week.  It's also showing a strong ATL ridge which is allowing the piece of energy that forms in the deep south near Texarkana, to track almost due N/NE up the Mississippi river towards the lower lakes region. This is quite the system the Euro is flashing.  If this were winter, this would be a track I would doodle and wishcast for!

 

Big time rain SNOW maker...

 

 OMG! Where has this potential been all my adult life? Please make sure n come back and visit again in January! Won't ya? 

[Tom]

 OMG! Where has this potential been all my adult life? Please makes sure n come back and visit again in January! 

Both Euro/Canadian show a phased closed low circulation right over the Lakes while the GFS is having some problems.  Fun times ahead bud!  It's going to be a drastically chilly week next week.  Models are showing a couple days in the 40's starting on Wed and then again on Fri.  Might need to dust off the heating systems over the weekend bc I got a sense HDD's will be more common around here next week.

[Tom]

Better make a thread Tom!

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_nebraska_65.png

FWIW, the Typhoon Rule (Typhoon Lan) would suggest a big storm around this time frame coming out of the SW.  I think the GEFS are beginning to show a SW Flow during the opening week of November.

[james1976]

Both Euro/Canadian show a phased closed low circulation right over the Lakes while the GFS is having some problems. Fun times ahead bud! It's going to be a drastically chilly week next week. Models are showing a couple days in the 40's starting on Wed and then again on Fri. Might need to dust off the heating systems over the weekend bc I got a sense HDD's will be more common around here next week.

I'm literally getting my furnace serviced today. Bring on the pattern change!

Might see our first freeze mid next week.

[james1976]

Trough parade on 6z GFS. Wow. Hope it's starting to see the pattern change. Yesterday's 12z run kept us all quite warm the weekend of the 28th. Now it's agreeing with the Euro on another big trough.