October 2017 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

It's been raining buckets here all morning long...waves and waves of heavy rain with rumbles of thunder. This stationary boundary is working its magic across N IL. After all the sunny, warm days in September, I forgot how dreary cloudy days can get. Great day to catch up on the DVR and watch some flicks!

Omg it's a complete deluge out there! Upgraded to a Flood Warning now. Reports of cars stuck in street flooding in Kzoo. Somehow, ive managed to stay north of the front so I'm getting these +RN showers on a Gusty NE wind and a chilly 60 degs to boot. F-cast high is 71 for comparison. If I get anything like this in winter, look out!

 

 

 

 

The National Weather Service in Grand Rapids has issued a

 

* Flood Warning for...

Calhoun County in south central Michigan...

Van Buren County in southwestern Michigan...

Kalamazoo County in southwestern Michigan...

 

* Until 400 PM EDT Sunday

 

* This replaces the Flood Advisory.

 

* At 400 PM EDT, flooding was occurring across the Kalamazoo

metropolitan area with vehicles becoming stuck on flooded roads.

Road closures are ongoing. Between 2 and 5 inches of rain has

fallen across the region since this morning with another 1 to 2

inches or more of rain expected through tonight. This will bring

storm total rainfall to the region of 3 to 7 inches by Sunday

morning. Both urban and rural areas will experience flooding with

some roads becoming water covered up to the depths of headlights.

Motorists should heed all road closures and be prepared to find

alternate routes.

 

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...

Kalamazoo, Portage, Albion, Marshall, South Haven, Paw Paw, Van

Buren SP, Westwood, Battle Creek, Vicksburg, Hartford, Galesburg,

Mattawan, Lawton, Bangor, Decatur, Homer, Union City, Schoolcraft

and Climax.

[jaster220]

@ map above

 

Note the HP due north over The Sault ONT region, just like last storm. Seems a recurring theme..

[Tom]

ORD broker a daily record today:

 

 

 

With already 2.10" of rain at O'Hare today as of 1pm, #Chicago shattered previous 10/14 daily record rainfall of 1.15" set in 2003. #ilwx

[james1976]

You guys are getting it good over there. Just checked my gauge and .40" so far today.

[westMJim]

Now at 1.06″ of rain for this event. Light rain here with a temperature of 61°

[Tom]

I don't think I have ever seen the Chicago river flood over its banks....Riverwalk is flooded...

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

Tornado Watch's hoisted for MO/IL and extreme SE IA...very nasty line of storms is erupting...looks like the main event is spawning several severe cells and its trajectory is up towards N IL.

 

Tornado warnings near Macomb, IL....

[Tom]

This has been a prolific rain producing system...another 1-3" expected on top of the already 3-5" totals in NE IL...

 

[Niko]

Lots of rain here today in SEMI. Raining all day continuously. Dint check because I was too busy today, but, definitely ova an inch of water fell.

[Niko]

Tornado Watch's hoisted for MO/IL and extreme SE IA...very nasty line of storms is erupting...looks like the main event is spawning several severe cells and its trajectory is up towards N IL.

 

Tornado warnings near Macomb, IL....

Geez...I thought that you were referring to Macomb, MI for a sec.....

[Niko]

If we get these kind of storms in the Winter and have cold air around...look out.

[Niko]

Asos saying 1.26" total as of 14:34

 

The updated NWS graphic is even more impressive. Must be legit, cuz GRR is usually the last regional office to bring any wind headlines to a party.

 

Tab3FileL (1).png

To all Michiganders on here, hold on to your hats tomorrow.....winds will be very strong!!!!

[jaster220]

Lots of rain here today in SEMI. Raining all day continuously. Dint check because I was too busy today, but, definitely ova an inch of water fell.

Gotta be close to 2.5" here now. Shoulda checked my gutters but a day ago this was a MISS north!!

 

61 all we've managed - 10 degs shy of fcast, ofc a spike towards midnight is not outta the question.

 

Flood, T-storms, and a windstorm tomorrow! Man, did this boring SMI pattern flip hard this week!

[jaster220]

Geez...I thought that you were referring to Macomb, MI for a sec.....

Lol Gotcha!!

[Niko]

Gotta be close to 2.5" here now. Shoulda checked my gutters but a day ago this was a MISS north!!

 

61 all we've managed - 10 degs shy of fcast, ofc a spike towards midnight is not outta the question.

 

Flood, T-storms, and a windstorm tomorrow! Man, did this boring SMI pattern flip hard this week!

Exactly...my local weatherman sounded so definite that everything  (especially the heavy precip) will bypass to my north. Well, well, well....looks like they were wrong. I guess this might be a good sign for our Winter.

 

I think we are done with any type of boring weather here in SMI, especially as we head into November.

[Tom]

I just witnessed the craziest clap of thunder I've ever heard.  It sounded like a single shot mortar firework x10 blowing up in the sky.  It had to be a block away from my place as there was no delay in the lighting/thunder...almost instantaneous.

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20171015.0035.gif

[Niko]

I just witnessed the craziest clap of thunder I've ever heard.  It sounded like a single shot mortar firework x10 blowing up in the sky.  It had to be a block away from my place as there was no delay in the lighting/thunder...almost instantaneous.

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20171015.0035.gif

Impressive........Hopefully, that heads my way!

[Iowawx]

Close to 0.8 inches of rain today so far. Looks like a line of showers/storms is forming to my west along the cold front. Winds are really picking up behind the front, 22mph now in Des Monies.

[Tom]

Close to 0.8 inches of rain today so far. Looks like a line of showers/storms is forming to my west along the cold front. Winds are really picking up behind the front, 22mph now in Des Monies.

Where are you located again?

[Iowawx]

Where are you located again?

I live in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. I have to ask the Chicago members, is there any particular reason as to why Chicago always bests Iowa in terms of rainfall totals and severe weather?

[Tom]

I live in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. I have to ask the Chicago members, is there any particular reason as to why Chicago always bests Iowa in terms of rainfall totals and severe weather?

No particular reason, it's just unlucky placement of the storm track.  I remembered back in the day, IA was on a roll stealing snow storms from us consistently.  Can't remember exactly what year (s) those were.

[Niko]

Still raining outside, wow. Very impressive rainfall tally's, I would imagine.

[Niko]

@ Tom

 

How much rain did ya pick up from this rainstorm?! I am thinking definitely more than an inch of water. I haven't checked, but, I am for sure approaching more than 1.50".

[Tom]

@ Tom

 

How much rain did ya pick up from this rainstorm?! I am thinking definitely more than an inch of water. I haven't checked, but, I am for sure approaching more than 1.50".

Prob close to 3.5”...haven’t checked the latest measurements nearby.

[Iowawx]

Can anyone in Chicago confirm the radar estimates of 6+ inches?

[jaster220]

Can anyone in Chicago confirm the radar estimates of 6+ inches?

Not a Chicago report, but downstream in SWMI it did hit that:

 

 

 

Flood Statement

National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI

858 PM EDT SAT OCT 14 2017

 

MIC025-077-159-152000-

/O.CON.KGRR.FA.W.0002.000000T0000Z-171015T2000Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

Calhoun MI-Van Buren MI-Kalamazoo MI-

858 PM EDT SAT OCT 14 2017

 

...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR

CALHOUN...VAN BUREN AND KALAMAZOO COUNTIES...

 

At 852 PM EDT, Doppler radar and ground truth reports indicate up to

nearly 6 inches of rain fell earlier today and this evening. The

heaviest rain fell from Keeler in Southwest Van Buren County,

through Kalamazoo to just south of Battle Creek.

 

Another wave of heavy rain and thunder was over the Chicago region

as of 9 PM EDT and will move into Southwest Michigan after 10 PM.

This wave could add an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain to already

saturated soils. Additional flooding remains a threat.

 

Some locations that may experience additional flooding include...

Kalamazoo, Portage, Albion, Marshall, South Haven, Paw Paw, Van

Buren State Park, Westwood, Battle Creek, Vicksburg, Hartford,

Galesburg, Mattawan, Lawton, Bangor, Decatur, Homer, Union City,

Schoolcraft and Climax.

[Hawkeye]

This system dropped a disappointing 0.73" in my yard.  The expected 2+ inch band of rain just ended up splitting north and south.

 

The nw wind is beginning to pick up a bit.  Gusts could be hitting 30 mph in a few hours.

[jaster220]

It's been a soggy night as training showers/storms have already dumped .84" at ORD with up to 1.7" in some spots locally. Latest RPM model is targeting SE IA/N IL/ S MI with the heaviest rains...

 

 

Looks like even short term guidance may have been a bit light..just like Tue

 

 

No particular reason, it's just unlucky placement of the storm track. I remembered back in the day, IA was on a roll stealing snow storms from us consistently. Can't remember exactly what year (s) those were.

 

09/10, and Dec '12 bliz iirc

[jaster220]

Brrr!

 

https://m.facebook.com/snowdayweather/photos/a.705056969562705.1073741825.122352087833199/1477808722287522/?type=3&source=48&ref=page_internal&__tn__=EH-R

 

I remember in Flint back in '89 kids had 39 degs and a strong wind for trick-or-treating. Coldest I remember downstate. This Euro map looks chilly too.

[Niko]

Its going to be raining all night. Ton of moisture still to come.

[Niko]

Prob close to 3.5”...haven’t checked the latest measurements nearby.

Just checked...my area is @ 1.77" and still raining. I am seeing easily going above 2".

[Niko]

Brrr!

 

https://m.facebook.com/snowdayweather/photos/a.705056969562705.1073741825.122352087833199/1477808722287522/?type=3&source=48&ref=page_internal&__tn__=EH-R

Dang! Brrr

[Niko]

This system dropped a disappointing 0.73" in my yard.  The expected 2+ inch band of rain just ended up splitting north and south.

 

The nw wind is beginning to pick up a bit.  Gusts could be hitting 30 mph in a few hours.

My rainfall has been @ 1.77" so far. I should surpass the 2" mark, for sure.

 

Yup..its going to get real windy, especially on Sunday. My winds could gusts above 40mph. Temps also plummet in the pm hour as well.

[Niko]

ame="Tom" post="261995" timestamp="1507985916"]It's been a soggy night as training showers/storms have already dumped .84" at ORD with up to 1.7" in some spots locally. Latest RPM model is targeting SE IA/N IL/ S MI with the heaviest rains...

 

 

Looks like even short term guidance may have been a bit light..just like Tue

 

 

 

 

09/10, and Dec '12 bliz iirc

Toms place is bullseye.

[jaster220]

Its going to be raining all night. Ton of moisture still to come.

Massive system too, must be radar lit up for a 1,000 miles. STJ that rarely works out in winter may come thru this year.

[Niko]

Massive system too, must be radar lit up for a 1,000 miles. STJ that rarely works out in winter may come thru this year.

Exactly, can you imagine if this was all snow. You and I would be digging out from near more than a foot of snow and still snowing with grand tallys at 2'+. Tom would be digging out from 3ft+.

[jaster220]

This has been a prolific rain producing system...another 1-3" expected on top of the already 3-5" totals in NE IL...

 

That shows the STJ and the PJ getting close to each other. Would they have phased if it was winter, or is this a semi-phased storm now?

[Minny_Weather]

Both GEFS and EPS ensemble means (and GFS Fantasyland) are showing first flakes around here with the projected end of the month cold blast. Means nothing obviously as it is 13 days out, but still fun to picture and definitely a possibility.

[jaster220]

Both GEFS and EPS ensemble means (and GFS Fantasyland) are showing first flakes around here with the projected end of the month cold blast. Means nothing obviously as it is 13 days out, but still fun to picture and definitely a possibility.

Speaking of..

 

 

[Tom]

Can anyone in Chicago confirm the radar estimates of 6+ inches?

ORD picked up a record 4.19" of rain yesterday...the southern suburbs got hit the hardest 8.44" in Somonauk...a general 5-7" on rain on the south side...

 

 

 

 

 

Awesome lighting shot...