October 2017 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

LM is starting to fire up some lake effect rain showers in MI. WestJim, are you getting any precip from this?

Classic plume signature hugging the west coast of MI, then coming inland west of Kzoo. That would be serious stuff when cold enough. SLP over Lk Huron is always a perfect track for backside squalls during winter.

[jaster220]

Sun's out, but this ain't summer any more!

 

Current OBS:

Wind Chill 48°F (9°C)

[Niko]

Temps are falling...currently at 57F...WC 46F, DP @ 51.

[Niko]

WOW.....@ 51 now....My temps are really plummeting. It dropped 6 degrees within less than an hr. Holy smokes.

[Niko]

Sun's out, but this ain't summer any more!

 

Current OBS:

Wind Chill 48°F (9°C)

Yup..we all know that, but, warm (70s) are back in the picture for some by next week. Perhaps, "Indian Summer" sounds more appropriate.

[gabel23]

Winds are becoming gusty as the CF is making its way through the area. Temps are already dropping into the 50's across the NW burbs as things begin to dry out. This has been an impressive long-lasting system and as Jaster said, the amount of real estate it effected was impressive as well. Very unusual to have so much moisture in an Autumn storm. It reminded me of the flooding rain events we have had over the summer back in July that targeted the northern burbs. This time, nature wanted to balance that out and hit the southern burbs.

 

The well-timed, tranquil and gorgeous fall weather expected this week couldn't happen at a better time. Need to dry out and enjoy beautiful temps and ample sunshine. Our boys in blue need to steal one game today in LA and come back home to Wrigley! The winds are forecast to be out of the S/SW for all 3 games which may be bad for pitchers, but good for the hitters. Another Schwarber bomb???

 

@ Gabel, what game would you want to come see???

Bought tickets for game 5. I think I'm gonna put them on stub hub though, can't get off work!!

[Niko]

Temps in my region are at 48F and dropping with WCF at 42F. Winds are howling. It feels like an Arctic Express is coming.

[jaster220]

LM is starting to fire up some lake effect rain showers in MI. WestJim, are you getting any precip from this?

o

That shows the STJ and the PJ getting close to each other. Would they have phased if it was winter, or is this a semi-phased storm now?

LP's long gone but upper lvl dynamics must be excellent to see LER shwrs continuing in ernest! Now I'm stoked to track snowstorms!! Nothing better than a deepening LP to get the lakes responding. For those in SWMI, the right conditions can bring bliz conditions with some insane rates!

 

@ Tom - so, did this storm phase, and if so, when/where? I get what a phase means, but I'm not so good at knowing the various levels of phasing. Trying to understand if phased systems are likely in the new LRC?

[Niko]

Looks like we will be getting a break from the rains now. All week looks sunny and a coolish start to the work week leading to a much milder end to the work week. Although, big changes follow soon thereafter.

[jaster220]

Temps in my region are at 48F and dropping with WCF at 42F. Winds are howling. It feels like an Arctic Express is coming.

Hit 67 from 7-10 this morning before the drop. Temp yesterday during and after all the heavy RN held between 58-61 degs from midnight yesterday, until 5 am this morning before rising for 5 hrs. This would have been an epic surprise snow in winter.

 

46 now, so almost 20 deg plunge in 12 hrs. Imagine if there was snow OTG to our north! What will it be like when the real-deal cold sets in??

[Niko]

Hit 67 from 7-10 this morning before the drop. Temp yesterday during and after all the heavy RN held between 58-61 degs from midnight yesterday, until 5 am this morning before rising for 5 hrs. This would have been an epic surprise snow in winter.

 

46 now, so almost 20 deg plunge in 12 hrs. Imagine if there was snow OTG to our north! What will it be like when the real-deal cold sets in??

Crazy temp change, that's for sure.

 

I cant wait till we get the real-deal cold in here. When we do, then, its "Party Time".

[gabel23]

Bought tickets for game 5. I think I'm gonna put them on stub hub though, can't get off work!!

 

 

Winds are becoming gusty as the CF is making its way through the area.  Temps are already dropping into the 50's across the NW burbs as things begin to dry out.  This has been an impressive long-lasting system and as Jaster said, the amount of real estate it effected was impressive as well.  Very unusual to have so much moisture in an Autumn storm.  It reminded me of the flooding rain events we have had over the summer back in July that targeted the northern burbs.  This time, nature wanted to balance that out and hit the southern burbs.

 

The well-timed, tranquil and gorgeous fall weather expected this week couldn't happen at a better time.  Need to dry out and enjoy beautiful temps and ample sunshine.  Our boys in blue need to steal one game today in LA and come back home to Wrigley!  The winds are forecast to be out of the S/SW for all 3 games which may be bad for pitchers, but good for the hitters.  Another Schwarber bomb???

 

@ Gabel, what game would you want to come see???

No one will be going to game 5 if the bats don't wake up.....#walkjustinturner......

[Niko]

Winds are still howling out there. Had to go and secure my garbage bins outside just now. Temps in the mid 40s with a wcf or 38F.

[james1976]

Down to 38. Hope to see frost when i head out the door in the morning!

[Tom]

o LP's long gone but upper lvl dynamics must be excellent to see LER shwrs continuing in ernest! Now I'm stoked to track snowstorms!! Nothing better than a deepening LP to get the lakes responding. For those in SWMI, the right conditions can bring bliz conditions with some insane rates!

 

@ Tom - so, did this storm phase, and if so, when/where? I get what a phase means, but I'm not so good at knowing the various levels of phasing. Trying to understand if phased systems are likely in the new LRC?

 

I would say a partial phase did happen, but not a complete phase.  Just ran through some of the model images of the jet and it seems like it really began phasing as the storm tracked through N MI into S Ontario.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

Here's a recap of the storm system for the Chicago area and region...

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/lot/pastevents/2017/Oct14/2017Oct14_RainRecords.png

 

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/lot/pastevents/2017/Oct14/MWrain.png

[Tom]

Love this crisp, chilly October morning.  Coolest morning of the year around these parts as 7:30am temps touched 43F.  The far W/NW burbs are in the mid/upper 30's.  Temps didn't quite dip as low as they were forecast.  Prob due to the saturated grounds.

 

 

 

 

 

@ Jaster, that pic you posted yesterday with the waves hitting the MI shorelines was an accurate portrayal of the size of the wave heights yesterday afternoon.

 

[GDR]

[Niko]

Crisp, brisk, chilly morning out there with temps in the low 40s ( 42F to be exact) along with dark, broken clouds in between some blue sky in the far distance.

[Niko]

@ Tom,

 

What was your low temp last night. My area dipped down to 36F.

[Tom]

There is a storm system that I'm watching that tracks to the north of Japan this Tuesday (17th) which seems to correlate as a "clipper" type system traversing the northern tier of our sub-forum the following week (25th-27th).  It's too early to say how far south it will track but it may be on the table for parts of MN/U.P. of MI during the 25th-27th time frame.  This storm is likely to kick start the cold pattern the weekend before Halloween.  Watch how it tracks towards the Aleutians Islands and interacts with the AK vortex that ultimately pumps the west coast ridge (+PNA). 

 

 

On the heels of this system, the powerful re-curving Typhoon near Japan between the (22nd-23rd) will be the culprit that truly locks in the colder/stormier pattern heading into November.  Check out the monster Bearing Sea storm that sits and spins for 2-3 days in the Bearing Sea.  Both GFS/EURO show the storm becoming a very strong feature in the Day 7-10 period.  However, tracks do vary between both of the models.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

@ Tom,

 

What was your low temp last night. My area dipped down to 36F.

Only 43F...I sit in the Urban heat island and its tough to get those temps to dip in the Autumn.  If you go out farther west about 10 miles temps dipped into the 30's.  In the winter, with a snow cover and calm winds, I manage to do better.

 

Did you get any frost?  We did have a lot of dew on the grass this morning around here.

[Niko]

Only 43F...I sit in the Urban heat island and its tough to get those temps to dip in the Autumn.  If you go out farther west about 10 miles temps dipped into the 30's.  In the winter, with a snow cover and calm winds, I manage to do better.

 

Did you get any frost?  We did have a lot of dew on the grass this morning around here.

Okay. No frost IMBY. Winds last night were gusty at times, which is why I did not get any frost. Would have if winds were calm. Bummer!

[Niko]

Love this crisp, chilly October morning.  Coolest morning of the year around these parts as 7:30am temps touched 43F.  The far W/NW burbs are in the mid/upper 30's.  Temps didn't quite dip as low as they were forecast.  Prob due to the saturated grounds.

 

 

 

 

 

@ Jaster, that pic you posted yesterday with the waves hitting the MI shorelines was an accurate portrayal of the size of the wave heights yesterday afternoon.

 

Chicago, North Ave Beach....only at 48F?!! WOW! That is some strong, urban heat island effect.

[Iowawx]

06Z GFS has my area getting snow on October 27. No way that pans out.

[Niko]

06Z GFS has my area getting snow on October 27. No way that pans out.

Hey, ya neva know.

[Hawkeye]

About 36F and a touch of frost here this morning.

[Niko]

About 36F and a touch of frost here this morning.

I had no frost. Gusty winds all night preventing my area from any frost from forming. My low temp was @ 36F.

[NEJeremy]

Bought tickets for game 5. I think I'm gonna put them on stub hub though, can't get off work!!

they have to actually make it to game 5, and I'm not betting much on that happening

[NEJeremy]

only had .12" of rain from this last system as storms continually formed about 30-40 miles south/east of Omaha. Dropped to 35 last night with a little more frost than we had last week when we dropped to 34.

[Niko]

Gorgeous day out there today. Deep blue skies, a brisk north wind , along with a few clouds from time to time. Temps in the upper 40s.

[Niko]

Btw:

 

Ophelia, once a hurricane, is now a Post Tropical Cyclone battering Ireland and the United Kingdom area with heavy rains and very strong winds (80+mph wind gusts). A very unusual path, that's for sure. A very dangerous storm, indeed.

[Niko]

only had .12" of rain from this last system as storms continually formed about 30-40 miles south/east of Omaha. Dropped to 35 last night with a little more frost than we had last week when we dropped to 34.

I managed to pick up 1.77" of water. Temp last night dropped to 36F but no frost, thanks to those gusty winds all night. Now winds have subsided substantially.

[james1976]

My car said 32 on way to work this morning. We had light frost on the grass and car windows.

I got 0.45" of rain from this past weekend system.

[Tom]

Well, that was an insane 12z GFS run!  Pretty much resembled a winter-like pattern for nearly all of us on here.  Blocking is becoming more noticeable each run on the GFS and also the Euro.  It is trending cooler by this weekend and moreso by early next week when the pattern just snaps.

[gabel23]

Well, that was an insane 12z GFS run!  Pretty much resembled a winter-like pattern for nearly all of us on here.  Blocking is becoming more noticeable each run on the GFS and also the Euro.  It is trending cooler by this weekend and moreso by early next week when the pattern just snaps.

Would be nice to see both of these continue to nosedive and stay well below 0 for most of this winter!! 

[Minny_Weather]

Well, that was an insane 12z GFS run! Pretty much resembled a winter-like pattern for nearly all of us on here. Blocking is becoming more noticeable each run on the GFS and also the Euro. It is trending cooler by this weekend and moreso by early next week when the pattern just snaps.

It'd be nice if Euro would actually show the big cool down the weekend after next now.

[james1976]

Yeah 6z and 12z GFS were both pretty intense. Really looking interesting by the end of the month!

[Tom]

It'd be nice if Euro would actually show the big cool down the weekend after next now.

I expect it to get colder next week given it’s known bias. IMO, everything is coming together Week 2, esp once this Typhoon begins to re-curve. November is going to shock some people I think for those outside of the weather world.

[Tom]

Halloween weekend is looking brutal for practically all of us this year.  Your not going to be seeing too much skin showing from the ladies this year!  The 12z EPS is even showing signs of snow flakes all the way down in E OK/W AR/SW MO/SE NE.