October 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

So far this fall the coldest it has officially gotten at Grand Rapids is 40° This year is the latest it has gotten in the fall without getting below 40° since 1914! There is a chance that we could be in the running or a new latest first sub 40° night this year

So far, my coldest temp this Autumn has been 38F.

[jaster220]

Still windy out there. Getting gusts as high as 46mph. The rain has ended though.

 

Those are stout, but I see zero wind reports via DTX's reports. Where was that at exactly? 

[Stormgeek]

Seeing all this precipitation falling to my south is a bit concerning. Although we did get a nice long rain a week or 2 back, it would seem that since then everything is targeting to the south of MN. Not sure if this is due to the new pattern taking hold, or if it is just a coincidence. Either way I am still looking forward to more white than years past.

[jaster220]

 

As I write this post, a large flock of geese is flying over my place as their seasonal migrations have begun.  I have always enjoyed this time of year when animals prepare for the winter season.

 

Speaking of Winter, 00z EPS honing in on a chilly pattern around the 25th for the deep south and central CONUS to close out the month...everything is seemingly pointing towards an amplified N.A. pattern.  Someone is going to see the flakes fly by the time the month is out.  There is some potential for a major developing trough forming somewhere across the Midwest/Apps/Lakes to close out the month.  I'm still not overly confident of the placement but a deep trough is looking more likely.

 

Back when I was a regular deer hunter, the sights and smells of autumn really got me stoked for deer camp in the Northland. Some years it was really really cold so you built a small fire at lunch when you went back to the vehicles...good times

 

Speaking of early flakes flying, how about inches of snow in Dixie the first days of Nov?? Had to be some kind of early snow records for them 

 

 

[Tom]

For the weekend storm, the Euro originally was flashing a would up storm in the extend, then both GFS/EURO backed off the intensity of the storm in the medium range...it's not until inside 4 days they started seeing a stronger storm.  Both NAM/Euro agree that there will be some severe weather across our sub-forum Sat night.  The GFS gets the system down to a 985mb storm in the eastern U.P. of MI, while the Euro in the upper 990's.  Nonetheless, looks like a decent autumn storm to track.

[jaster220]

For the weekend storm, the Euro originally was flashing a would up storm in the extend, then both GFS/EURO backed off the intensity of the storm in the medium range...it's not until inside 4 days they started seeing a stronger storm.  Both NAM/Euro agree that there will be some severe weather across our sub-forum Sat night.  The GFS gets the system down to a 985mb storm in the eastern U.P. of MI, while the Euro in the upper 990's.  Nonetheless, looks like a decent autumn storm to track.

 

Nice update Tom. Split the diff at 992 mb - final call. (j/k)  I'm actually fine with that heaviest stuff staying north of mby. Have a slight roof issue on my old place that flares up with too heavy of +RN. Bulls-eye mby again when it's the white stuff. Just really nice to see the pace picking up for our region. What January was it again that Chicago had (4) major snowstorms?? WGN had a map of the tracks & dates, but I don't have a copy. Maybe this cycles back during snow-time??    

[Tom]

Nice update Tom. Split the diff at 992 mb - final call. (j/k)  I'm actually fine with that heaviest stuff staying north of mby. Have a slight roof issue on my old place that flares up with too heavy of +RN. Bulls-eye mby again when it's the white stuff. Just really nice to see the pace picking up for our region. What January was it again that Chicago had (4) major snowstorms?? WGN had a map of the tracks & dates, but I don't have a copy. Maybe this cycles back during snow-time??    

Jan '14 ORD had back to back winter storms in a period of a week!  I remember those storms like it was yesterday...long duration NYE/New Year's storm (17.1") and then another good hit a few days later on Jan 4th/5th that dumped 7" of powda!  I need to beat these snow piles this year!

[jaster220]

^^^ awesome pics! Ofc, mby got the same two storms but with the opposite results. I had 8.1" over New Yrs and 18" with the PV Bliz, after which my driveway reminded me of NMI. Not even in S. Bend did I have that kind of depth. 17 yrs since I'd seen that much OTG at my place.

 

 

 

Ofc, over my way it just kept coming and Feb piles were even larger at some point. I have some photos but they were from too far away and don't do the historic scenario justice. 

 

 

[jaster220]

CPC gifting us more winds 

 

 

[Tom]

CPC gifting us more winds 

 

20171012_CPC_hazards_d3_7.png

Ya, Sunday looks chilly and gusty...good Sunday football weather...

[Tom]

Just got done mowing my lawn and I haven't seen it this saturated in a very long time.  Kinda muddy TBH and the leaves are sticking to everything.  Tomorrow's 70's will be delighted.

 

By months end, I think the Autumn version of Barney will be showing up.  Some blue/purple colorful temp departure maps are going to be needed, esp some places down farther south.

[Tom]

NAM keeps trying to flash rain/snow mix near MSP on the 15th.  Deadline is the 15th for the snow flake contest....hmmmm....

 

 

 

[Niko]

Those are stout, but I see zero wind reports via DTX's reports. Where was that at exactly? 

My area! It was wild. I saw a couple branches broken and one big tree knocked down.

[Niko]

It was a chilly, cloudy day with sprinkles or drizzle on & off all day. Temps remained in the low 50s. Very dreary and gloomy.

[Niko]

The weekend system not lookin all that impressive.

[jaster220]

The weekend system not lookin all that impressive.

Idk, GFS is known to go Gonzo with every Lakes cutter, but after this last storm, and Tom's NAM map above, this could be a last minute improver.

 

 

 

[Niko]

Idk, GFS is known to go Gonzo with every Lakes cutter, but after this last storm, and Tom's NAM map above, this could be a last minute improver.

 

 

gfs_mslp_wind_us_13.png

Tbh, watch it turn out into a big rainstorm. I could easily go for another rainstorm along with wind and chilly temps.

[jaster220]

NAM keeps trying to flash rain/snow mix near MSP on the 15th. Deadline is the 15th for the snow flake contest....hmmmm....

 

GFS had a few inches north of Superior as well. EC is often slow to pick up on the cold, could be why it's less amped. CPC must be leaning against the EC to go with their wind hazard. It wasn't there yesterday. Can't wait to see if Storm Watches(s) are hoisted on at least the northern lakes?

 

Idk about turning a corner later, kinda feels like we already did, lol

 

Looks like autumn might get the squeeze play put on it!

 

 

Edit: Takes in down to 976 mb and hits Quebec east of James Bay with 1-2 feet.

Edited October 13, 2017 by jaster220

[Niko]

In other news, Cali is continuing to burn. Good luck to those people there. Hopefully, some heavy rains will be in their forecast to help with those wildfires.

[Niko]

NAM keeps trying to flash rain/snow mix near MSP on the 15th.  Deadline is the 15th for the snow flake contest....hmmmm....

 

GFS had a few inches north of Superior as well. EC is often slow to pick up on the cold, could be why it's less amped. CPC must be leaning against the EC to go with their wind hazard. It wasn't there yesterday. Can't wait to see if Storm Watches(s) are hoisted on at least the northern lakes?

 

Idk about turning a corner later, kinda feels like we already did, lol

 

Looks like autumn might get the squeeze play put on it!

Our temps will likely take a tumble around the 25th of this month. Nice shot of chilly air rushing in. Mybe the coldest so far this season. I will be nearing the freezing mark at night.

[jaster220]

In other other news.

 

"Trump taps AccuWeather CEO to head NOAA, breaking with precedent of nominating scientists"

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/10/12/trump-taps-barry-myers-accuweather-ceo-to-head-noaa-choice-seen-as-controversial/

[Niko]

Its a cold, wet October evening out there with temps holding at 47F. Its a raw evening!!!

[james1976]

This weekend system will be interesting for some of us (looks mainly SE of me) with iso. severe storms and heavy rain followed by a cold shot with gusty winds. Keep that in mind when it recycles!

[Tom]

00z NAM trending into a well developed storm and colder for MN.  Signs pointing in the right direction if you want to see snow flakes fly near the Northwoods/U.P....possibly MSP???

 

 

 

 

Negative tilted trough???

 

 

[Tom]

What a game!  Go Cubbies!  Time to hit the sack...get ready for the late month Arctic Attack!  

[Tom]

Happy Friday the 13th!  High Rez NAM spitting out some spooky rain fall totals as it's seeing a good signal for training storms along a warm front.

 

 

 

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/lot/wxstory/Tab2FileL.png

[jaster220]

 

 

Negative tilted trough???

 

Yep, it's been advertised and talked about elsewhere; mostly in the severe thd's that I only take a (very) passing interest in tbh. Winter's my true "Schtick" 

 

Glad for you Cubs fans - fun times!

[Niko]

With the late month "Arctic Attack" coming, I have a good shot in dipping in the 20's for overnight low temps. Highs prolly not getting outta the 40s for highs. A flurry may be possible as well.

[Tom]

From all the recent rains, all the lawns have "greened" up substantially over the last few days.  After another round of heavy rains this weekend, one would imagine the drought will have been erased across our region.

 

Both NAM's are not necessarily in agreement on the overall placement....

 

 

[Tom]

RPM seems locked onto the idea of possible flooding given the soaked grounds...

 

[jaster220]

^^^ @ NAM 3 km

 

 NOOOOOO!!!     Stay north pls n thx

[jaster220]

(Don't get baited, don't get baited, don't get baited!) I've become very skeptical over anything beyond 180hrs over the past year. Perhaps thats a good thing. While there are hints of a cooler than normal winter, especially with north and westward extent, along with a storm track invof the Ohio Valley. However, I can't feel comfortable with going anything more than that, such as magnitude or duration. The accuracy in climo forecasts just isnt there yet, and there's variability and a lack of a strong consensus. It also must be noted that so far, we've torched all fall, I have no idea what this means for this winter, however it was briefly discussed on AmWx and the sample size was very small, and skewed slightly to warmer than average based on an above average November, should that occur. From what limited info I've seen and heard, analogs are a mixed bag, lowering my confidence further. However, I feel pretty confident we cant do worse than 15-16 and 16-17. Right?!?!?!

 

    you're baited! 

 

Yeah, enjoy the ride....going UP??

[Hawkeye]

Models have been gradually trending south with the heavy rain.  A couple models (like the 3k nam) are now keeping the main show tonight and Saturday south of my area, with perhaps only a half inch total falling here.  Today's rain appears to be staying north of me.

[OKwx2k4]

Growing excessively excited to see the rain and storms shifting SE over my area as models run. Better than starting over me and moving NW like the last 2 yrs.

[jaster220]

Growing excessively excited to see the rain and storms shifting SE over my area as models run. Better than starting over me and moving NW like the last 2 yrs.

 

Excited to see CO lows heading to the GL's - period!  I think this is only the 2nd one, though feels like more tbh.

 

Just add cold air..

 

 

[Tom]

12z Euro has a pretty nasty looking line of storms around midnight Sat pm across IA/IL...

 

Higher rez models starting to see the flooding potential across IL/IN....atmosphere is juiced!

 

 

 

[Hawkeye]

So the euro finally caved to the south shift, now has Saturday's main show missing me to the south.  Today's narrow band of heavy rain missed north, and the HRRR has little rain falling here overnight.  All week it appeared 1.5-2.0+" was a lock for my area.  Now, I'm worried we may end up with a half inch.  The latest euro graphic doesn't even have Des Moines getting that much.

[Tom]

Both 18z NAM models are pretty much agreeing on the corridor of heavy rain...

 

 

 

[VMB443]

Nice rain started here about half an hour ago - looks like it's going to rain off and on all night and through tomorrow with a possibility of thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon/evening.

[Iowawx]

This is turning into a disappointment here. Really tired of Chicago always seeming to best us in terms of rainfall totals. Hopefully I can still get at least 0.75 out of this.