October 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

I'm noticing a pattern here....can you???  Models keep showing more blocking across the Dakotas when systems move across the central states as the new LRC sets up...isn't this a breath of fresh air???  Trends have been pushing the Sat/Sun system farther south over the past couple days.

 

 

Storm #1 this week...

 

 

 

Storm # 2...

 

 

 

 

 

 

I hope the Tuesday storm comes in a bit later than it's being forecast at the moment. Game 4 of the NLDS is at Wrigley and it wouldn't be fun to be playing in the rain with a raw easterly wind off of LM unless they have it earlier in the day.  The higher rez and global models are spitting out some juicy numbers.  00z Euro with widespread 1-3" totals in IA/IL/WI with close to 1" totals in E NE and also MI posters.

 

 

[Tom]

The Northwoods are going to finally feel the chill this autumn season with a widespread Freeze.  I just saw a map of the Fall colors and they are reaching peak in N MN/N WI right about now.  These temps will expedite the colors the color change.

 

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/mpx/wxstory/Tab2FileL.png

 

http://maps2.dnr.state.mn.us/pat/fall_colors/current_map.png

[Tom]

00z Euro has a ton of precip across the Plains/Midwest/Lakes over the next 7 days...

 

[jaster220]

 

 

The Northwoods are going to finally feel the chill this autumn season with a widespread Freeze.  

 

You mean there's actual really cold air somewhere?? Hard to believe I had high temps in the mid-50's in August, but the past month has been a "2nd summer" 

 

This would be a shocker over here in SMI after what was basically a summer weekend minus the longer days/sun angle.

 

 

 

 

[jaster220]

00z Euro has a ton of precip across the Plains/Midwest/Lakes over the next 7 days...

 

 

Just amazing how tomorrow's system is a perfect reflection of some of the better new LRC maps for this coming winter, eh?

[Niko]

You mean there's actual really cold air somewhere?? Hard to believe I had high temps in the mid-50's in August, but the past month has been a "2nd summer" 

 

This would be a shocker over here in SMI after what was basically a summer weekend minus the longer days/sun angle.

 

20171008 18z 51hr NAM 2m temps for 21z Oct 10.jpg

So true, I've had lows in the 40s in August and highs in the 60s more times than I can remember thus far in September and into October. Go figure!

Near 80F this week is not ruled out. Just amazing how warm it continues to be.

[Niko]

Nate visited my area last night with some rainfall and breezy conditions. Currently, Nates precip is outta here and I am under partly cloudy skies with a touch humidity in the air with temps in the upper 60s. Running for 80F today. Unreal! The beat goes on.

[Tom]

Gary Lezak is providing his much anticipated feedback into the new developing cycle this morning.  Today's storm system that has formed in the CO Rockies is a very encouraging sign to kick start the new LRC.

 

 

 

A developing cyclone is in progress this morning and it will continue into Tuesday.  What is a cyclone?  Did you know that a hurricane is a cyclone?  In meteorology, a cyclone is defined to be any large scale system that rotates around a strong center of low pressure.  Cyclones are characterized by spiraling winds rotating inward towards this center of low pressure.  We are seeing something developing over western Colorado this morning that we did not see all of last fall when the cycling pattern developed in 2016-2017. This may very well be exhibit A for this years pattern and it certainly will be fun to watch today.

[james1976]

CO low to kickstart the new cycle? Count me in.

[james1976]

I wonder where that leaves this past weekend's system. Transition maybe.

[NEJeremy]

models are showing another 1-2" of rain from tonight/tomorrow's system here in eastern Nebraska. If this is part of the new LRC, count me in!

[Niko]

models are showing another 1-2" of rain from tonight/tomorrow's system here in eastern Nebraska. If this is part of the new LRC, count me in!

Same here...tomorrow nights rainfall into Wednesday could be appreciable amounts, although, nothing to really brake the abnormally dry conditions here.

[gabel23]

models are showing another 1-2" of rain from tonight/tomorrow's system here in eastern Nebraska. If this is part of the new LRC, count me in!

Last week I received 5.2" of rain. This week looks like another 1". Bring this on this winter!!! 

[westMJim]

The start of October 2017 has been very warm for most of Michigan. With 8 days now in the record books most locations are running at record warmth for the month (the departures should go down over time) anyway here are some of the departures from average at the major reporting stations around Michigan after 8 days. Grand Rapids +8.3° Lansing +9.0° Muskegon +7.8° Detroit +9.0° Flint +8.0° Tri Cities (Bay City, Midland, Saginaw) +10.0° Alpena +9.2° The Sault +10.1° Marquette +8.4°

[Tom]

You mean there's actual really cold air somewhere?? Hard to believe I had high temps in the mid-50's in August, but the past month has been a "2nd summer"

 

This would be a shocker over here in SMI after what was basically a summer weekend minus the longer days/sun angle.

 

20171008 18z 51hr NAM 2m temps for 21z Oct 10.jpg

That map right there is a prime example to the saying..."what a difference a year makes"...last years long term long wave ridge was smack dab where the coolest anomalies will be Tue-Wed.

[Niko]

Currently @ 72F. Someone here in my neck of the woods will top off at 80F or slightly better.

[westMJim]

Currently @ 72F. Someone here in my neck of the woods will top off at 80F or slightly better.

75° right now at house.

[Tom]

RPM model is spitting out some healthy precip totals in the 1-2" range for all of N IL...2"+ for NE IL....I would salivate if this were winter on the track, precip and wind direction of this system....dream track for MBY...

 

I think I'm going to nickname parts of the new LRC pattern "the Dakotas Block"....

 

12z GFS continues with the trends for the weekend storm system....

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

Looks like the ridge that was forecast to come in later next week is becoming more "muted", esp near the Lakes region....forecast trends showing more trough which was not advertised Week 2.  Model behavior Week 2 has been very erratic so I would like to wait a few more days before locking in on it.

 

 

 

 

 

The culprit???  As has been the case so far early on in the season, will be the ridging in the NE PAC and off the west coast....

 

 

[Tom]

This is awesome...it's becoming more common as we approach the Grand Solar Minimum....Red Sprites seen coming out of the sky near Edmond, OK last night...

 

[jaster220]

 

 

RPM model is spitting out some healthy precip totals in the 1-2" range for all of N IL...2"+ for NE IL....I would salivate if this were winter on the track, precip and wind direction of this system....dream track for MBY...

 

Ha! Beat me to it Tom. You're not kidding, this is drool-worthy stuff in winter. Especially coming off the last pair of bad-n-badder seasons wrt synoptic tracks. 

 

 

 

Every time I see an update on this, I'm like "where the Heeel did this come from?" Don't remember seeing this outlined on CPC's d3-7 maps, did you??

 

Sneak attack storms - the#funnest events imo

 

 

[jaster220]

This is awesome...it's becoming more common as we approach the Grand Solar Minimum....Red Sprites seen coming out of the sky near Edmond, OK last night...

 

 

Nature's fireworks! Way cool 

[Tom]

The end of the month flip is being noted per 12z GEFS as the west coast ridge begins to take shape around the 24th/25th.  I think the Euro Weeklies are going to agree that we see this flip coming end of the month as well.  Both GEFS/GEPS have trended this way from today's 12z suite of runs.

 

[Tom]

RPM model for Tue/Wed system...

 

[Tom]

12z Euro spits out some very heavy rainfall across a lot of our members, esp those who missed out on last weekends system.  Trends have been wetter....

[Tom]

Changes showing up on the 12z Euro for the weekend system, unfortunately, I have to step away from the computer...be back later folks!

[jaster220]

^^^ that's as much of a leader-tease as the local news channels

[james1976]

^^^ that's as much as a leader-tease as the local news channels

Nahh.....it would be moreof a tease if it were winter lol

[jaster220]

Nahh.....it would be moreof a tease if it were winter lol

 

It's still pre-season, he's practicing 

[Tom]

^^^ that's as much as a leader-tease as the local news channels 

 

Nahh.....it would be moreof a tease if it were winter lol

That's funny guys...made me chuckle..."now back to your scheduled programming"....as I was saying, 12z Euro is back to a wound storm taking a track from, guess where???  Yet again, another CO Low forms that skirts ENE towards KC/DSM/GRB.....intensifying all the way up towards the lakes while going neg tilt.  Of note, this run is showing another trowel-like feature which produces a beautiful looking comma shape structure.

[Tom]

It's official, first flakes are flying in Pipestone, MN....woah!

 

[Tom]

Boy, I think this would justify as mother nature "flipping the switch" after such a dry Aug/Sep period near the Lakes....

 

 

[Tom]

12z EPS is agreeing that the flip begins to take shape in the NE PAC by the 23rd/24th as HP takes over and the Aleutian Low begins to take shape.

[Tom]

Ryan Maue has now added pretty much every map you need from the Euro, esp, his newly added snow maps...

[james1976]

Man, it got chilly quick. Turned cloudy and breezy from NW. Temp dropped from 67 to 60.

[jaster220]

"Pipestone, MN....woah!"

 

On your list of cities???

[Tom]

"Pipestone, MN....woah!"

 

On your list of cities???

Lol, nope! Getting close though! Meantime, cold front just made its way through and temps are dropping into the mid 60's.

[james1976]

58 now suddenly. Bigtime wind gust. Leaves are hitting the deck. Love it.

[gabel23]

Had to break down and turn the heater on tonight. I got back home from coaching a football game, which was cold as shizit, and the house was down to 64! It's a strange night tonight, we are getting convective rain/thundershower with ice pellets mixing in. I wouldn't call it hail; rather graupel or even possibly sleet. OAX mentioned it this afternoon. 

ice.MOV

[gabel23]

This is awesome...it's becoming more common as we approach the Grand Solar Minimum....Red Sprites seen coming out of the sky near Edmond, OK last night...

 

This has to be one of the best pictures taken of a sprite that I have ever seen!