October 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Some vertical build to the cloud tops across N IL/S MI as some heavier showers/storms popping up...

 

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/wisc/images/wisgif32.gif

 

 

I-80 corridor over N IL getting some scattered shower activity...so it begins...

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20171004.1342.gif

[Niko]

Well, NWS had lowered the risk to 50% here in St. Joseph, but we've just gotten hit by some decent showers. Was coming down heavy for a bit, so not a whiff here. TBD whether Marshall sees something fire up in the next few hrs as the front slowly works east.

My best chance of rainfall is by far on Friday into early Saturday and we will see how that goes. Another chance maybe next Monday of the following week. At least now, I can honestly say, my rain chances are there, rather than having dry conditions.

[Tom]

Will it be a year of the CO Low???  GEFS members showing it nicely...

 

 

 

 

 

This next system looks interesting...another CO Low phasing with a piece of GOM energy???  If this were Winter, it would be an ideal storm potential for our southern members in OK/TN....

 

 

 

[Tom]

I just looked back at my notes from last year's LRC pattern and there was a system that developed in N KS that tracked through C IA and up towards W. U.P. of MI between Oct 6th-7th.  Tornado watches were issued for E KS/SW IA and the first Frost/Freeze advisories just NW of the system.  Hmmm, I'm not sure what to think about this as it would be almost a mirror image of last year's storm for the same dates!  

 

00z GFS is showing this for the 7th...look at that line of storms and compare it to where the Tornado watches were hoisted last year!  Wow...

 

[westMJim]

Well my driveway is wet, but that is just about it. Total rain fall here at my house so far 0.03" Still getting a "mist" here the temperature is now down to 68° that is the coolest it has been since yesterday at 9AM

[Niko]

Sunshine peeking through now, kinda muggy outside. Temps are in the 70s. Dews are in the 60s.

[Thunder98]

I see highs in the upper 40's in Duluth, MN around the 10th-11th time period. 

 

[bud2380]

Latest GFS kind of splits right in between my location for heaviest rain into Saturday AM.  The first round is heavier south of I80, the 2nd round is heavier in north central Iowa or Northeast Iowa.  Still about 2" for my back yard, but I'd rather be in this 3-4" range.  I did pickup a surprising .95" overnight though.  First appreciable rain in about 2 months.  

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017100412/084/qpf_acc.us_mw.png

[Minny_Weather]

OAX is contemplating a Flash Flood Watch along and south of the 80 for the next couple days.

[gabel23]

Latest GFS kind of splits right in between my location for heaviest rain into Saturday AM. The first round is heavier south of I80, the 2nd round is heavier in north central Iowa or Northeast Iowa. Still about 2" for my back yard, but I'd rather be in this 3-4" range. I did pickup a surprising .95" overnight though. First appreciable rain in about 2 months.

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017100412/084/qpf_acc.us_mw.png

You want to talk about getting split, look at that small circular blue spot in eastern nebraska. That's where I live!

[jaster220]

You want to talk about getting split, look at that small circular blue spot in eastern nebraska. That's where I live!

 

At least that's not a snowfall map..

[Minny_Weather]

At least that's not a snowfall map..

You're right. In a snowfall map, that spot extends outwards to cover the entire state of Nebraska.

[Tom]

Gary Lezak made his first comments of the new pattern beginning.  Here are some excerpts from his blog entry today:

 

 

 

Are you ready for a weather pattern that has never happened in the history of earth? Yes, a unique pattern is now setting up.  What ignites this to happen every year around the first week of October? Well, we believe we may know what starts it, but of course this is just an idea we are looking into. The sun sets on the North Pole on the Autumnal Equinox around September 22nd each year. Then it is twilight, in other words it is not dark at the North Pole until around October 5th to 8th, and this is when we have shown and shared with you over these past 15 years in the blog when we believe the pattern begins. It is October 4th, so we are likely in the last few hours of the old pattern and nearly at the beginning of the new pattern which we can clearly see on the models the past few days.

 

 

 

 

 I can’s stress this more, as will be into the new pattern by next week as we always are according to the LRC, now the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis as we submit our work for peer review. 

.

 

 

When I first found the cycling pattern in the 1980s I noticed the most critical three weeks was October 15-November 5, but it is still the entire first cycle of the pattern which must be analyzed which can last from the first week of October into early December or possibly even longer. So, I recommend patience.

[Hawkeye]

I picked up 0.70" overnight from a series of brief downpours.

[james1976]

Looks like a defo band over mby on 12z GFS for this late week system. Anyone have precip maps? Thanks!

[james1976]

Models goin back n forth on ridge or trof mid month.

[Tom]

RPM is the wettest model of the bunch for N IL...I think its safe to say, on average, we'll see about 1" or more by end of the weekend...this will be a healthy drink...

 

[Tom]

I'm seeing a big trough between the 16th-20th across the central CONUS with a stout EC ridge....snow in the high plains????  It's on the table I think.

 

[Tom]

Look at the similarities and also differences on the maps below comparing the same time stamps but 1 year difference.  You can argue the presence of a strong Bermuda HP.  Somewhat difference near Alaska and the NE PAC...probably bc the new LRC is forming around this time.

 

Today's 12z GFS...

 

 

 

Last year at the same time...

 

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/171004174151.gif

[jaster220]

Well, NWS had lowered the risk to 50% here in St. Joseph, but we've just gotten hit by some decent showers. Was coming down heavy for a bit, so not a whiff here. TBD whether Marshall sees something fire up in the next few hrs as the front slowly works east.

 

 Gonna call this a "win" after all. Wasn't looking too promising this early morning tbh, but It looks like mby got clipped by this robust cell moving thru around lunch time. Feelin better now about this month.

 

 

[westMJim]

The sun is now out here. Total rain fall? 0.04" 

[jaster220]

Look at the similarities and also differences on the maps below comparing the same time stamps but 1 year difference.  You can argue the presence of a strong Bermuda HP.  Somewhat difference near Alaska and the NE PAC...probably bc the new LRC is forming around this time.

 

Today's 12z GFS...

 

 

 

Last year at the same time...

 

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/171004174151.gif

 

Yeah, the -QBO and blocking is going to turn what was last year's disappointing outcome into the much better year we were expecting last year. Eerily similar winter outlook maps from a year ago:

 

This year's:

 

 

 

Last year's:

 

 

[Niko]

Received a nice downpour just now. Now sure how much, but, it looked more like .25". Kinda muggy out as well.

[Niko]

Right now, it looks like some nice, beneficial rains possible on Friday.

[Niko]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT16/refresh/AL162017_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/175742_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

 

[Niko]

Btw, broke a record high yesterday of 85.5F. Old record was 84F set back in 1953. Wow.

[jaster220]

Btw, broke a record high yesterday of 85.5F. Old record was 84F set back in 1953. Wow.

 

KRMY topped out @ 83F. Was 80 or above for a whopping 6 hrs.   Whoopee-ding!   Heatwave redux FAIL!  

[Tom]

12z Euro and GFS not in agreement in the pattern next week.  Euro amplifies the trough while GFS misses it.  I think a lot has to do with the crashing EPO and its wrecking havoc in the GFS.  Frosty morning next Wed am across the GL's/Midwest...daytime highs on Tuesday only in the low/mid 50's across IA/IL/IN/MI...40's for the Northwoods with gusty N/NW winds.  It will feel like Autumn once again.

[james1976]

Thanks Tom. I was wondering what Euro was showing.

Local met has 1-3" rain across all of E IA with the upcoming system.

I just dumped out 0.60" from my gauge from the past couple days.

[jaster220]

Flood watch hoisted for SENE peeps. Man did things change in a hurry over there..

[james1976]

Flood watch hoisted for SENE peeps. Man did things change in a hurry over there..

No doubt. No watches here but Im excited about this system. DMX goin with widespread 2-4" by Saturday am.

[Minny_Weather]

Flood watch hoisted for SENE peeps. Man did things change in a hurry over there..

I'm overall pessimistic about this. We'll get quite a bit of rain, but I don't think it'll be a huge flooding threat for us at least. Maybe farther Southeast into NW MO.

[gabel23]

Flood watch hoisted for SENE peeps. Man did things change in a hurry over there..

 

 

I'm overall pessimistic about this. We'll get quite a bit of rain, but I don't think it'll be a huge flooding threat for us at least. Maybe farther Southeast into NW MO.

Precip forecasts have gone up throughout the day that's for sure. Looking like a good 1-3" for both OAX and Hastings CWA. I'll tell you one thing, the ground is plenty wet. I continued digging some of my potatoes tonight and it's wet from top to bottom. I'm sitting at 1.2" of rain so far for October with plenty more to come, hope the remaining potatoes don't begin to rot! 

[Niko]

It feels nice out there, although, still muggy. Next week looks like another surge of warmth coming.

[Niko]

From NOAA:

 

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast

Michigan..DAY ONE...Today and TonightThere is low probability of thunderstorms today. Any storms that formwill not be severe.

[Niko]

The tropics now have a new Tropical Depression 16 in SW Caribbean. Here we go again! Hopefully, it does not become a hurricane and bother anyone.

[Niko]

KRMY topped out @ 83F. Was 80 or above for a whopping 6 hrs.   Whoopee-ding!   Heatwave redux FAIL!  

Lost count on how many record highs I have broken so far.

[Niko]

Good chance we might be dealing with a hurricane in the GOM soon. All eyes on LA, Panhandle of FL, AL and maybe even parts of eastern TX.

[Minny_Weather]

Good chance we might be dealing with a hurricane in the GOM soon. All eyes on LA, Panhandle of FL, AL and maybe even parts of eastern TX.

Sad but true, October is a part of hurricane season, and this has been not necessarily an above average hurricane season, but more of an unlucky one for the US. Best case scenario with this system is that it could possibly interact with a trough, therefore a cooler and more sheared environment as it enters the GOM. I hope that happens. If not, it looks like this will be a fast mover, so no matter who it hits it should not take too long to get back to normal.

[Niko]

Sad but true, October is a part of hurricane season, and this has been not necessarily an above average hurricane season, but more of an unlucky one for the US. Best case scenario with this system is that it could possibly interact with a trough, therefore a cooler and more sheared environment as it enters the GOM. I hope that happens. If not, it looks like this will be a fast mover, so no matter who it hits it should not take too long to get back to normal.

I am hoping it interacts with land so no development occurs from where it stands right now. If it does develop into a hurricane, Cat1 is probably the highest they are looking at, but yes, hopefully it will be a fast mover.