October 2017 Observations and Discussion

[NEJeremy]

[NEJeremy]

latest 3K Nam has gone extremely dry in East Central Iowa for the rest of the storm.

 

Yuck, 4" of rain for Omaha?! We're still under an inch total so far from this storm but tonight should be the heaviest. Hopefully not that much!

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2017100618/030/qpf_024h.us_mw.png

[Minny_Weather]

We're under a severe thunderstorm watch now. I don't think Lincoln will get much, but South of us should get interesting...

 

[Stormgeek]

About as dreary as they come today. This morning I had fog in my area that was easily the densest I have ever seen; it made driving all sorts of fun... After that cleared off it stayed cloudy and is now raining lightly. It would appear our St. Paul member is getting a nice soaking rain as well.

[bud2380]

GFS much more bullish still on rain. 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017100618/030/qpf_024h.us_mw.png

[Jaycee]

 

 

let's go boys.

[Tom]

mcd0868.gif

 

 

let's go boys.

Fast forward a couple months "Heavy Snow"...looking promising for you guys out there heading towards Winter!

[Minny_Weather]

mcd0868.gif

 

 

let's go boys.

Obviously the funnest day weather-wise we've had since Spring has to be the night I go to a hockey game.

[jaster220]

Fast forward a couple months "Heavy Snow"...looking promising for you guys out there heading towards Winter!

My thoughts exactly. May not have to wait 2 mos even. Was looking at daily data for autumn '89 and was quite surprised to see 70s & 80's just a few days prior to both snowstorms that brought snow OTG. Doesn't need to be a bitter cold month, especially in the plains, to get lucky.

[Niko]

Dreary, wet, mild evening out there. Temps are in the 60s. Light sprinkles on and off.

[Niko]

Best Winter track for the Gl's region.....

 

 

Toms post:

It has a weak SLP dig all the way down into TX Panhandle, then towards Texarkana which is ideal positioning for before it takes a turn up towards the lower lakes.

[james1976]

I hope this is the 1st system in the new LRC. I'm at 1.30" already and that radar means business. Quite a bit of thunder the past couple hours with better rainfall rates.

[james1976]

Reports of 50mph wind gusts on leading edge of storms in C IA.

Also thinking defo band sets up close to mby!

[Tom]

Reports of 50mph wind gusts on leading edge of storms in C IA.

Also thinking defo band sets up close to mby!

That defo band is wrapping up over E NE peeps as we speak.  Looks like it weakens some but swings through your area around dinner time.

 

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/SurfaceAnalysis/r07_ICast.gif

[Tom]

On the heels of this weekends system, another trough dives into the Rockies and a weak CO Low will develop Sunday night and kick out into the southern Plains.  Models differ on strength and track so something to monitor.

 

00z Euro dumps soaking rains for those who missed out on the heavier rains with our current system in E IA/IL/WI/IN/W MI.  Widespread 1-2" totals.  This is a neat looking system with a Banana-looking HP to the north of the system.  The Euro shows a TX Pan Handle hook and digs this system into the southern Plains and tracks towards lower lakes.

[Tom]

The next big trough/storm to target our central/northern posters is begin picked up by both the GFS/EURO next weekend.  00z Euro spins up a monster MSP special with wind gusts approaching 60mph off the GL's in the extended and EPS/Control agree.  Boy, looks like cutter season is off to a fast start this year!  This would be the 3rd system to target our sub forum by mid October. 

[Tom]

Picked up close to .50'" of precip since this system began which is nowhere near to what the models were painting a couple days ago.  Any precip at this point is a blessing.  Hoping for the forecasted line of storms to develop later this afternoon to deliver another good soaking to bring totals near an inch.

[jaster220]

Picked up close to .50'" of precip since this system began which is nowhere near to what the models were painting a couple days ago.  Any precip at this point is a blessing.  Hoping for the forecasted line of storms to develop later this afternoon to deliver another good soaking to bring totals near an inch.

Not a great sign that the models are over-blowing moisture. I wish they were biased the other direction tbh. Pretty deflating in winter when models are showing 10" and each subsequent run chips away until you're left with half of that.

 

Don't have accurate data for Marshall, but we've done okay with this event. Everything's greening up now that it's time for nature to go dormant, lol

[jaster220]

The next big trough/storm to target our central/northern posters is begin picked up by both the GFS/EURO next weekend.  00z Euro spins up a monster MSP special with wind gusts approaching 60mph off the GL's in the extended and EPS/Control agree.  Boy, looks like cutter season is off to a fast start this year!  This would be the 3rd system to target our sub forum by mid October.

 

Sweet! I love strong autumn storms with winds. Today's winds might be just a sampler if that system takes shape. November should be interesting if we can get some truly cold air to work with.

[Minny_Weather]

Not a great sign that the models are over-blowing moisture. I wish they were biased the other direction tbh. Pretty deflating in winter when models are showing 10" and each subsequent run chips away until you're left with half of that.

 

Don't have accurate data for Marshall, but we've done okay with this event. Everything's greening up now that it's time for nature to go dormant, lol

If the models keep this up we're gonna steal all the snow from you this year!

[Money]

Hope all is well with you guys!

[james1976]

Picked up 2.48" so far with defo band about to move in. Nice looking comma on radar. Looks like a winter storm! Cycle 2 anyone? White Thanksgiving?

[Niko]

Big time storms moving in SMI later tonight. Looking forward to that. Not sure when the last time was when I saw some severe storms in my area.

 

From NOAA:

 

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast

Michigan..DAY ONE...Today and TonightThere is a chance of thunderstorms early tonight. The potentialexists for these storms to produce damaging wind gusts in excess of60 mph. These storms are most likely between 9 pm and Midnight.Storm motion will be to the east-northeast at 45 to 50 mph.

[Niko]

Gulf states are preparing for what is now a Hurricane. Nate is expected to be a CAT2 when making landfall. Good luck to those people down there.

[Tom]

Not a great sign that the models are over-blowing moisture. I wish they were biased the other direction tbh. Pretty deflating in winter when models are showing 10" and each subsequent run chips away until you're left with half of that.

 

Don't have accurate data for Marshall, but we've done okay with this event. Everything's greening up now that it's time for nature to go dormant, lol

I never thought we would get those 2-3" totals but more or less close to 1.0-1.5".  This system was taking on a classic autumn storm shape with a comma head signature and a squall line out in the Plains and that likely took a lot of the energy away from areas east.  It's almost like we got the WAA snows out ahead of a winter storm...LOL...

 

 

Hope all is well with you guys!

Money man is back!  

[james1976]

Hope all is well with you guys!

Gettin amped for Winter?

[Tom]

12z GEFS are beginning to show signs of an amped up PAC jet in the 6-10 day range....this will be an important puzzle for the models to figure out down the road...looking a lot like what happened last year...or will it???

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

Some radar estimated totals since Oct 2nd in the Plains...

 

 

[Niko]

So, its a beautiful day today, warm and muggy for October standards. Temps in the 70s.

[Tom]

12z Euro is still showing next weeks Tue/Wed system and a defo band over N KS/SE NE/C IA...day time temps don't make it out of the 40's under the heaviest precip.  System weakens considerably heading up into the Lakes but still drops close to 1" totals across the Midwest states and WI/IL/N IN...

[Tom]

Euro still showing a storm coming out of CO and tracking through NE/IA/SE MN and rapidly intensifying into the seasons strongest autumn storm  This thing looks nice and right on schedule so I hope these are good trends going forward.  990mb storm in N WI by HR198...

[OKwx2k4]

Euro still showing a storm coming out of CO and tracking through NE/IA/SE MN and rapidly intensifying into the seasons strongest autumn storm This thing looks nice and right on schedule so I hope these are good trends going forward. 990mb storm in N WI by HR198...

There's potential that the upcoming weeks have some of the old pattern in them also. Correct?

 

I think we get to see some new stuff after the 16th.

[Tom]

There's potential that the upcoming weeks have some of the old pattern in them also. Correct?

 

I think we get to see some new stuff after the 16th.

Gary mentioned this past week was a blend of the old vs new and that next week an entirely new pattern begins.  Hurricane Nate may actually be a part of the new pattern.  Will hear more on Monday and let you know.

[james1976]

Tom.....so Euro showing 2 systems in the next 10 days? That model seems to be consistent with these systems. It also beat out the GFS with this current system. It was the first to show the comma shape and to hang the defo band into the afternoon for mby. And right now that is whats happening. Closing in on 3" and temp has dropped to 60.

[snowstorm83]

3.89" at Lincoln airport for the first week of October. It's been pretty soggy lately so it's nice to see it clearing out for game day.

[Stormgeek]

12z GEFS are beginning to show signs of an amped up PAC jet in the 6-10 day range....this will be an important puzzle for the models to figure out down the road...looking a lot like what happened last year...or will it???

 

 

 

 

 

Let's go with "no" on that. I am not mentally prepared for another winter like that. 

[Tom]

[Niko]

Currently 81F and windy. A little muggy with dews at 62F. Storms should be firing up tonight.

[Money]

Gettin amped for Winter?

Sort of. That usually doesn't start until the first snowflakes tho

[Minny_Weather]

Tuesday is looking wetter and colder as every model run comes out. It is very well possible we may not even reach 50° here Tuesday.