October 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

This has to be one of the best pictures taken of a sprite that I have ever seen! 

It looks freaky awesome...like the God's from above are speaking to the earthlings below.  Imagine what our ancestors thought these were 1000's of years ago when this knowledge wasn't available. 

[Minny_Weather]

I also turned on my heater. If we get even two degrees colder than what is expected tonight, we could be looking at a few snowflakes mixing in with rain here in Lincoln overnight. I am thinking we hit 50 tomorrow, which is normal for November 16.

 

My cat is not happy that I closed the windows.

[jaster220]

I also turned on my heater. If we get even two degrees colder than what is expected tonight, we could be looking at a few snowflakes mixing in with rain here in Lincoln overnight. I am thinking we hit 50 tomorrow, which is normal for November 16.

 

My cat is not happy that I closed the windows.

Had 56F at 1pm on August 24th, and you wonder why I was already in full-on autumn mode? :-|:-P

[Guest Snowball]

Had a thunderstorm and 39 driving home from work. Lots of lightning. I like how it's setting up with the Colorado lows. If this trend continues through winter I think everybody in the forum will be pretty excited.

[Niko]

Gorgeous day today....warm and not too uncomfortable. Absolutely gorgeous.

[Niko]

75° right now at house.

Crazy stuff. I topped out at 84.1F today. Record was 86F. Almost tied the record....

[Niko]

A little rain coming for Wednesday and then, the warmth returns with abundant sun. Weekend temps will be in the upper 70s to near 80F.

[james1976]

Im down to 47 already. Wasnt expecting that.

[OKwx2k4]

This is awesome...it's becoming more common as we approach the Grand Solar Minimum....Red Sprites seen coming out of the sky near Edmond, OK last night...

 

That's a beautiful picture man.

[Tom]

00z Euro still with a widespread soaker for the Midwest/Lakes today/tomorrow...what a beautiful looking map and the uniform "spread the wealth" is about as ideal as you can get from the Plains to the Lakes.  

[Tom]

00z Euro still with a wound up storm this weekend while the GFS is sheared out.  Who wins?  BTW, the Euro is flashing a rain/snow mix near SW MN/MSP/NW WI on Sun/Sun night.  That falls on the dead line of the "First Flake contest"...may need to make some adjustments to the deadline if this trend continues.

 

[Tom]

I'm starting to think there may be some record-low highs out in KS/MO/NE/IA region where the coldest anomalies will be setting up today as the defo band takes shape in the systems cold core.

[jaster220]

@ Euro maps

 

48 hr shows upwards of 1.5" for Marshall, yet Intellicast maps which are usually spot on in the winter for snow aren't showing rain over mby. Not one single incremental map does. Keeps all the real rain just south and looks like a miss. This would be a major disappointment if it plays out like that. They have the SLP tracking along the OH River vs over KIND which is mby's preferred track for heavy events. Gonna be watching this closely as a clue for winter. While snow often reaches further north from the surface LP than rainfall does, this will be a good test of my main concern on the winter storm track. Mainly, that it could end up like 2012-13 when it was one wx zone south of us, bringing S IL and IN that near bliz in late December. 

 

Then the weekend system per CPC hits Chicago, but misses me to the north. Don't want to fret over this so early in the new LRC, but unlike SENE peeps, I'm still waiting to get my first real soaker system. 

[jaster220]

@ Tom

 

To my post above, have you run across any maps showing Marshall under the rain shield from either of these (2) systems?

[Tom]

@ Euro maps

 

48 hr shows upwards of 1.5" for Marshall, yet Intellicast maps which are usually spot on in the winter for snow aren't showing rain over mby. Not one single incremental map does. Keeps all the real rain just south and looks like a miss. This would be a major disappointment if it plays out like that. They have the SLP tracking along the OH River vs over KIND which is mby's preferred track for heavy events. Gonna be watching this closely as a clue for winter. While snow often reaches further north from the surface LP than rainfall does, this will be a good test of my main concern on the winter storm track. Mainly, that it could end up like 2012-13 when it was one wx zone south of us, bringing S IL and IN that near bliz in late December. 

 

Then the weekend system per CPC hits Chicago, but misses me to the north. Don't want to fret over this so early in the new LRC, but unlike SENE peeps, I'm still waiting to get my first real soaker system. 

I wouldn't pay so much attention to the exact locations of the track/precip totals/etc at this point.  What I like seeing is a storm track nearby because that gives our region a "chance" of tracking a winter storm in future cycles and it will depend on how much blocking/strength the system encounters to justify a track in future cycles as the jet intensifies.  I'm just glad to see that pretty much all the models are in agreement for our first widespread soaker.  You and I missed out on last weekends soaking rain maker so I'm looking forward to this one.

[Tom]

@ Tom

 

To my post above, have you run across any maps showing Marshall under the rain shield from either of these (2) systems?

RPM model???  Sorta gives you an idea what it looks like in SW MI...

 

[St Paul Storm]

Currently 34F with a nice thick frost on the car hoods and rooftops. Had to flip the heat on in the house when I got up. Bring on winter!

[Tom]

Currently 34F with a nice thick frost on the car hoods and rooftops. Had to flip the heat on in the house when I got up. Bring on winter!

Your state is in the freezer this morning!  Widespread mid/upper 20's this morning across the Dakotas/MN region.  Nice to see someone finally cash in on a good frost.

[Tom]

@ Tom

 

To my post above, have you run across any maps showing Marshall under the rain shield from either of these (2) systems?

I just saw the full run of the RPM and all of S MI does well with this system so I wouldn't worry about it.  It lays out a uniform stratiform rain shield which I love to see in autumn systems heading into the cold season.

[Minny_Weather]

Bottomed out at 38.3* on my 2nd floor balcony. Just went to Menard's to restock on firewood and it is full blown Christmas in there! 

 

In reference to what Tom said about record low maxes, that is safe here due to the insane 2009 October we had. On this day, it snowed 1.2" here and we set a record low max of 38. The next day, we set another record low max, this time being 40.

[Tom]

Bottomed out at 38.3* on my 2nd floor balcony. Just went to Menard's to restock on firewood and it is full blown Christmas in there! 

 

In reference to what Tom said about record low maxes, that is safe here due to the insane 2009 October we had. On this day, it snowed 1.2" here and we set a record low max of 38. The next day, we set another record low max, this time being 40.

Wow, that is impressive for October!  Ya, you won't be breaking any records but those to your east stand a shot at it.  Buying firewood can get pretty dang expensive.  Why don't you drive out into the forest and go chop some wood!      Connect with nature and use what it provides us buddy!

[Minny_Weather]

Wow, that is impressive for October!  Ya, you won't be breaking any records but those to your east stand a shot at it.  Buying firewood can get pretty dang expensive.  Why don't you drive out into the forest and go chop some wood!      Connect with nature and use what it provides us buddy!

Menard's firewood isn't too bad of a price. About $5 for a bundle which lasts about 3 days if you use it constantly. Plus it's Nebraska. There's no trees here that aren't part of a state park or in someone's backyard    Only public forestland near me is the Platte River Valley.

[Tom]

Gary Lezak mentioned that the heart of every new LRC is between Oct 15th - Nov 5th and some very interesting weather swings are being predicted during this period.  As the entire Northern Hemispheric pattern undergoes the seasonal changes as the jet continues to intensify, IMO, we will see something fascinating happen as the SST's across the N PAC cause feedback and snap into a very amplified pattern. 

 

Firstly, after a couple systems this week into the weekend, we will see a pretty darn good warm up again as NW NAMER engulfs into a big trough.  It is not until the 24th of October where we see the "big flip" all across N. A.

 

 

The map below shows the NW NAMER trough...

 

 

 

 

By the 24th, a number of clues line up which may lead to an "Autumn Arctic Attack" as the Aleutian Low develops, NE PAC ridge blossoms, Scandinavian Ridge as well as a somewhat -NAO work in tandem to allow any arctic air to flood the lower 48....not only that, but the PV gets dislodged off the Pole!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It's still very early to say how this pattern will evolve as the new LRC is developing before our eyes.  However, I will say, I'm confident that there is a flip coming into a colder regime closing out this month and heading into November.

[james1976]

Light snow reported west of Mason City according to local radio!

[Tom]

Light snow reported west of Mason City according to local radio!

Get outta here!  That's a great sign.  It has been a trend that models have under done the cold and I think this season is going to be filled with exciting trends/surprises.

 

Just checked the radar and there are some snow returns west of Sioux city and NW IA...

 

Here's a 7:00am CST map...

 

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/SurfaceAnalysis/r07_ICast.gif

[Niko]

Currently @ 61 with fair skies. Nearing 70F today.

 

Some needed rain on the way! Yay!

[Niko]

Colors are getting closer to near peak here in my area. I'd say, give it a week more to go.

[jaster220]

RPM model for Tue/Wed system...

 

 

 

RPM model???  Sorta gives you an idea what it looks like in SW MI...

 

 

[jaster220]

Gary Lezak mentioned that the heart of every new LRC is between Oct 15th - Nov 5th and some very interesting weather swings are being predicted during this period.  As the entire Northern Hemispheric pattern undergoes the seasonal changes as the jet continues to intensify, IMO, we will see something fascinating happen as the SST's across the N PAC cause feedback and snap into a very amplified pattern. 

 

Firstly, after a couple systems this week into the weekend, we will see a pretty darn good warm up again as NW NAMER engulfs into a big trough.  It is not until the 24th of October where we see the "big flip" all across N. A.

 

 

The map below shows the NW NAMER trough...

 

 

 

 

By the 24th, a number of clues line up which may lead to an "Autumn Arctic Attack" as the Aleutian Low develops, NE PAC ridge blossoms, Scandinavian Ridge as well as a somewhat -NAO work in tandem to allow any arctic air to flood the lower 48....not only that, but the PV gets dislodged off the Pole!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It's still very early to say how this pattern will evolve as the new LRC is developing before our eyes.  However, I will say, I'm confident that there is a flip coming into a colder regime closing out this month and heading into November.

 

Yeah, and GRR had an interesting afd yesterday regarding this amplification potential. They're usually pretty docile, but imagine they're bored too after months of lame patterns on lame patterns for SWMI. Time to "shake it up" ova here in SMI   

 

 

 

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)

Issued at 234 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2017

 

We will have to watch closely what happens this weekend into early

next week, there could be a major storm system moving through the

Great Lakes as there is some suggestion of phasing of the northern

ans southern stream waves as the upper wave pattern shifts eastward.

 

The overall upper air pattern has become a little more progressive

lately. The north Pacific wave train (jet stream shortwaves) are

becoming stronger (as they should at this time of year) and this is

causing deeper waves to cross the CONUS. The system that comes on

shore late this week will be a case in point. This upper wave will

have more amplitude as it crosses the CONUS late this week into

early in the following week. This leads to the GFS shifting the

upper wave energy east to quickly while the ECMWF allows more

digging of that upper wave. That being so, the main system will

come through Sunday night into Monday as compared to Saturday night

into Sunday. Over the next few days we will have to watch how this

plays out. Either way we get a cold front to come through Sunday but

with the ECMWF solution there would be early fall type system

tracking along the front Sunday night into Monday. This would likely

feature strong thunderstorms and very heavy rainfall for our

Southern CWA.

 

Beyond that an even more significant system will need to be watched.

As I mentioned yesterday we have one of the extended east Asian jet

features with a jet core over 190 knots near the dateline early in

the following week. When that gets into the CONUS and even more

significant early fall storm would be likely for our area.

 

Bottom line is stormy weather ahead but it for the most part be

warmer than normal for till that east Asian jet feature comes

through through CONUS.

[Niko]

From NOAA:

 

Talk about active weather here in SMI:

 

Attention then turns to tonight when a rain chances increase and
stay in the forecast through tomorrow. The frontal boundary that is
pushing through Michigan this morning will settle into the Ohio
Valley by the afternoon. An upper wave currently located east of the
Rockies will move northeast throughout the day towards the mid
Mississippi Valley. As it does this, it will draw ample Gulf moisture
northward into the region. Precipitable Water values are forecast to
reach around 1.25 inches or greater for portions of lower Michigan
by this afternoon. The upper wave will begin enter the region and
interact with the frontal boundary across the Ohio Valley later this
evening. Model guidance varies slightly with the position of the
surface low, but Michigan will likely reside on the north side of the
surface low. This system will have good mid level dynamics
associated with it, in addition to the right entrance region of the
upper jet streaming overhead to start the night. All that being said,
this set up will allow a decent rainfall event to unfold overnight
tonight and ending tomorrow afternoon. Rainfall amounts could range
from 0.50" to 0.75" inch with with locally higher amounts up to 1"
possible given the deep moisture available. The speed of the system
should help limit any excessive rainfall.

The upper low should exit to the east and weaken overnight
tomorrow. Upper riding and surface high pressure will begin to build
in over the Great Lakes through the end of the week. Temperatures
will trend warmer from the 50s and 60s mid week back into the 70s by
Friday and Saturday as warm air advection at 850mb streams into
Michigan from the southwest.

This weekend looks like a another good opportunity for showers and
even some thunderstorms as another dynamic low pressure system
swings out of the northern Rockies and into the Great Lakes. The
first round of rain chances will be possible on Saturday along a
frontal boundary parked across the lower Michigan as warm air
advection from southwest flow rides over that boundary. That boundary
will lift northward as a warm front on Sunday as showers and
thunderstorms develop along that boundary. This leave Michigan in the
warm sector of this system as a cold front pushes through the state
Sunday night continuing shower and thunderstorm chances to close out
the weekend.

 

If this was December, it would have been real pretty here, ofc with cold air around.

[NEJeremy]

Get outta here!  That's a great sign.  It has been a trend that models have under done the cold and I think this season is going to be filled with exciting trends/surprises.

 

Just checked the radar and there are some snow returns west of Sioux city and NW IA...

 

Here's a 7:00am CST map...

 

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/SurfaceAnalysis/r07_ICast.gif

I really wish they would have moved the Cubs game up to a 1 or maybe even 2 o'clock start today to try and avoid the heavier rain. From my understanding, today's game would have actually been a night game since there is no other games and ratings, ratings, ratings....

The radar right now doesn't look too bad as far as it being a total washout, but we've got a long 7 hours until first pitch. I just don't want them to have to start and stop and start as that could mean Arrieta has to come out early if the game were delayed while he was in. Go Cubs!

[Niko]

Btw, I am sure most know, but, Winterstorm Aiden brought the first snow of the season to Denver. First named storm of this season.

[Minny_Weather]

Btw, I am sure most know, but, Winterstorm brought the first snow of the season to Denver. First storm of this season.

Fixed it for you 

 

After today, the weather here should be boring for the next couple weeks. Highs in the 60s or 70s. Maybe a couple rain shower chances. I'll allow it, we've had quite a bit of rain lately.

[Tom]

I really wish they would have moved the Cubs game up to a 1 or maybe even 2 o'clock start today to try and avoid the heavier rain. From my understanding, today's game would have actually been a night game since there is no other games and ratings, ratings, ratings....

The radar right now doesn't look too bad as far as it being a total washout, but we've got a long 7 hours until first pitch. I just don't want them to have to start and stop and start as that could mean Arrieta has to come out early if the game were delayed while he was in. Go Cubs!

I agree with you on that.  Yesterday, when the call was made, it looked like the heavier rains would not get in till about after 8:00pm which would work out just fine.  However, things have changed and I think it gets a bit wet out there.  Who knows, if the radar is locked to be a soaker they may call it off.  Although, the rain has been a good omen for the Cub's in recent history...Game 7 of the World Series...anyway, I'm still looking forward to a widespread drencher.

 

 

@ Jaster, RPM looks even wetter...

 

[Niko]

Fixed it for you 

 

After today, the weather here should be boring for the next couple weeks. Highs in the 60s or 70s. Maybe a couple rain shower chances. I'll allow it, we've had quite a bit of rain lately.

Nothing to fix...it happened!

 

https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2017-10-08-winter-storm-aiden-denver-forecast-snowstorm

 

Temps here warm up also by the weeks end after the rainstorm. The 70s return with sunshine, but, more rain possible again by the weekend. Things starting to get a little active here in SEMI.

[Niko]

Currently, some high thin clouds starting to move in ahead of the rain system that will be pushing through my area late tonight. Sun starting to fade away. Temps in the 60s.

[Minny_Weather]

Nothing to fix...it happened!

 

https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2017-10-08-winter-storm-aiden-denver-forecast-snowstorm

 

Temps here warm up also by the weeks end after the rainstorm. The 70s return with sunshine, but, more rain possible again by the weekend. Things starting to get a little active here in SEMI.

Let me just say I have my opinions about the entire naming winter storms thing....

 

Creeped up into the 40s on my balcony. 40.5 now. 3 degrees colder than the airport roughly.

[james1976]

DMX afd pretty interesting regarding this weekend storm and model differential:

 

By late in the week and into the weekend a series of short waves

will track through the deepening long wave trough over the western

CONUS. There remain significant differences between the GFS/Euro

with the GFS faster and less developed than the Euro model.

Today`s system is similar...with the GFS less amplified than the

Euro. Seems like the GFS is not seeing the same amount of cold air

getting entrained into either today`s system or the upcoming weekend

storm. A clue to the weekend outlook will be to verify how well

today`s event is modeled. In any event...the Euro is more amplified

this weekend with a much stronger fall cyclone resulting in periods

of rain and thunder with the potential for several inches of rainfall

across the southeast half of the state in addition to what we receive

today/this evening. The GFS is faster and suggests a more open less

amplified wave taking the system out of the area already by Sunday

morning while the Euro keeps moderate rain/thunder in the area Saturday

through Saturday night...and finally clears the region by Sunday afternoon

with much colder temperatures. Upper wind fields with the stronger

Euro depict a possible severe weather outbreak just east of our area

into Illinois/Indiana/ Michigan while the GFS is farther northeast

with the better coincident wind maxes aloft. With such a wide range

of possibilities...confidence remains low into the weekend for many

of the main forecast elements. The only consistency so far has been

the past two model packages have shown intra-model (each model consistent

with itself) consistency but no inter model consistency ( models

not consistent with each other). For now a blended approach with

some lean toward the Euro has been taken. Though the solutions seem

to be only 6 hours apart on timing there is a world of difference

on storm evolution and resultant conditions. It will probably be

a couple of days more before a more consistent solution is forthcoming.

[Niko]

Let me just say I have my opinions about the entire naming winter storms thing....

 

Creeped up into the 40s on my balcony. 40.5 now. 3 degrees colder than the airport roughly.

Tbh...I honestly wish that Winterstorms didn't have any names. Just plain Winterstorm Watch or Warning would've been just fine. All these names are ridiculous. Ofc, tropical systems I have no issue with having them named.

[Niko]

Clouds have lowered and thicken with temps in the 60s. Rainy weather coming.....yippee!!!!!