October 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Tom.....so Euro showing 2 systems in the next 10 days? That model seems to be consistent with these systems. It also beat out the GFS with this current system. It was the first to show the comma shape and to hang the defo band into the afternoon for mby. And right now that is whats happening. Closing in on 3" and temp has dropped to 60.

Yes, Euro/EPS still holding onto the Tuesday system which I think will be nick named "bonus storm" in this year's cycle if this is indeed part of the new LRC.  This system snuk up on us and the Euro has been steadfast on track and intensity thus far.  It's an ideal track for a potential Pan Handle Hook if this were winter and a Banana HP to the north.

 

12z EPS members are still on board with the weekend storm next week but not all are very amped.

[Tom]

Picked up .62" from the frontal rains and everything here is soaked and actually starting to turn a bit greener in pockets. Today and yesterday, almost felt like a holiday when the rains came. It's been so dry here it kinda reminded me of AZ how people react to desert rains when they come during the Monsoons and venture outside to witness the storms! It's pretty funny actually.

[Niko]

Nice squall-line headed my way!

[Tom]

I'm hearing reports of a Tornado hitting MSN this afternoon...

 

http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/nws-possible-tornado-reported-on-madison-s-east-side/article_1a1d1cb1-3cdf-520a-8cec-886ca8dbbc5b.html

[jaster220]

Line fired up and heading my way. Let's see what it's got??

[Tom]

Line fired up and heading my way. Let's see what it's got??

Some pretty good down pours...windy, sideways driven rain...reminds you we actually are in Autumn...

[jaster220]

If the models keep this up we're gonna steal all the snow from you this year!

You know what they say about being in the bull's-eye 3 months out LOL

 

Seriously though, I think this winter, everyone on this sub punches their ticket at some point.

[Hawkeye]

0.90" total here the last couple days.

[jaster220]

Some pretty good down pours...windy, sideways driven rain...reminds you we actually are in Autumn...

Funny, cuz I mowed my lawn in shorts and got sweaty this evening, so to me this was more like the warm season storms we missed all summer. Minimal lightning was disappointing but the winds and deluge were a pleasant change of pace for mby. Nice to see the baro down in the 29.5 hg range as well. Idk who on here remembers Nov 10, 1998 but that was the epic one I recall. Tore shingles off many places in S. Bend where I had moved the year before. I heard winds in the straights of Mackinaw were clocked at 80 mph sustained! Ofc Octobomb was impressive in 2010 but I was working in TX and missed in completely. Been a while since a GLs autumn bomb "ship sinker" storm. Wouldn't mind one this year.

[Niko]

That is one nasty line of storms approaching my area.

[jaster220]

That is one nasty line of storms approaching my area.

Looks worse than it is. No severe warned cells, no spin-ups, no hail cores, lackluster CtG strikes. In a normal summer, twould be practically a non-event. Sadly for this year, it was memorable. Heavy rain and a 40 mph gust!

[jaster220]

Had no idea Nate was expected to stay tropical so far north/inland! Mistake?

 

 

[jaster220]

I'm hearing reports of a Tornado hitting MSN this afternoon...

 

http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/nws-possible-tornado-reported-on-madison-s-east-side/article_1a1d1cb1-3cdf-520a-8cec-886ca8dbbc5b.html

Total coincidence I'm sure, but that was the first Oct tornado in WI since 2013

[Niko]

Looks worse than it is. No severe warned cells, no spin-ups, no hail cores, lackluster CtG strikes. In a normal summer, twould be practically a non-event. Sadly for this year, it was memorable. Heavy rain and a 40 mph gust!

Nothing outta the ordinary....... heavy rain and windy conditions. Oh well, like you said, "looks worse than it is".

 

Btw: Just to my north in Lapeer County, there was a Tornado Warning.

[Niko]

Had no idea Nate was expected to stay tropical so far north/inland! Mistake?

 

usa_ICast (1).gif

Usually, that far north, you are left with the remnants.

[jaster220]

Usually, that far north, you are left with the remnants.

Correct, but their map symbol indicates a tropical storm, thus why I questioned if it was maybe an error?

[jaster220]

Denver area under the new WSWatch and I like how they read. 6+ possible for parts of the foothills. Explains why my local forecast reads like summertime, lol

[OKwx2k4]

Explains why my local forecast reads like summertime, lol

 

Lol. Was wondering the same thing myself.

[Tom]

Chicago Marathon is being held today and the weather God's couldn't have delivered a better forecast, albeit, maybe a tad to warm.  Ideally, runners like temps in the 50's/60's so with temps forecast to head up into the lower 70's by mid afternoon I'd say its a touch warm for them.  My sister in-law is running at the marathon for her hospital.  Good luck!

 

Meanwhile, while the central Rockies get hit by another winter storm later tonight into tomorrow, 00z GFS is trending back with the Tuesday system across the Midwest/Lakes...00z Euro with more moisture and pockets of 2-3" totals showing up in E IA/C & N IL/S WI....

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/bou/winter/StormTotalSnowWeb.png

 

[Tom]

Rainfall totals across the region...nature finally delivered much needed precip...

 

[Niko]

Correct, but their map symbol indicates a tropical storm, thus why I questioned if it was maybe an error?

My guess is they made a mistake.

[Niko]

Currently cloudy and mild with temps @ 63F. Dry conditions.

[Tom]

Talk about being in the right place at the wrong time...that is, if you want to capture a tornado...this guy in Madison had the tornado go right over him yesterday...

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=share&v=3n79cNV6baQ&app=desktop

[Tom]

Frost morning near MSP Tuesday???

 

 

 

[Tom]

Higher-Rez NAM picking up on a trowel-like feature for the Tue/Wed system with a solid defo band...I must say, I like the looks of this little sneaky storm...this would mean we would have back to back mature systems in this new developing LRC (if this past weekends system is in fact part of the new cycle).

 

 

 

[james1976]

3.18" total here. 0.70" just from the defo band.

[jaster220]

Rainfall totals across the region...nature finally delivered much needed precip...

 

Shows my area between .75 and 1". We didn't need inches n inches here so I'm quite pleased overall.

 

  

Higher-Rez NAM picking up on a trowel-like feature for the Tue/Wed system with a solid defo band...I must say, I like the looks of this little sneaky storm...this would mean we would have back to back mature systems in this new developing LRC (if this past weekends system is in fact part of the new cycle).

 

 

 

Sneaky like NYE '07 storm was for SMI. It's a great sign agree. And the angle of the track being WSW to ENE aligns perfectly with many of the forecasted scenarios as well.

[jaster220]

BAMwx seems to have a good handle on Oct

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

 

Sneaky like NYE '07 storm was for SMI. It's a great sign agree. And the angle of the track being WSW to ENE aligns perfectly with many of the forecasted scenarios as well.

Can't wait to see this storm with blocking pressing down on it later in the year.

[NEJeremy]

2.56" total from the last system. Puts me over 5" the last 3 storms the last couple of weeks

[Tom]

The first widespread frost and freezes are up in the western & northern Plains...I like seeing those colorful maps finally appearing...a little late this year.

 

 

[Tom]

Can't wait to see this storm with blocking pressing down on it later in the year.

This system is looking better and better each run per the GFS.  Euro has always been a pretty good soaker for the Plains/Midwest/Lower Lakes.  As you said, this system should be a fun one to track in future cycles.  The way it digs and plugs into GOM moisture, one can only imagine what it would look like in late November or December!

[Niko]

Cloudy and mild currently with temps in the 60s. Warmer air returns next week with 70s and maybe topping at 80F.

[jaster220]

Cloudy and mild currently with temps in the 60s. Warmer air returns next week with 70s and maybe topping at 80F.

Yep, the heat-beat goes on for us Eastern peeps. Took the scenic route back roads over to Lk Michigan and it was a mini color tour (with the a/c blasting, lol). Trees should be awesome for the next 2-3 wks regardless of extended summer conditions. I'm not totally against it really. I still remember the rather cold Oct '09. A Chicago poster on Amwx was bemoaning how long it takes now to get chilly temps in autumn. Somebody looked it up and sure enough, the 70s & 80s had more consistently early cold and Frost's in Chicago. It's not just the heat island effect either, there was a different backdrop to the pattern then, and our area just seemed to be ground zero for cold. I still remember wx maps on TV news showing a strong Arctic HP coming down over N MN, which seems rare these days.

[OKwx2k4]

Yep, the heat-beat goes on for us Eastern peeps. Took the scenic route back roads over to Lk Michigan and it was a mini color tour (with the a/c blasting, lol). Trees should be awesome for the next 2-3 wks regardless of extended summer conditions. I'm not totally against it really. I still remember the rather cold Oct '09. A Chicago poster on Amwx was bemoaning how long it takes now to get chilly temps in autumn. Somebody looked it up and sure enough, the 70s & 80s had more consistently early cold and Frost's in Chicago. It's not just the heat island effect either, there was a different backdrop to the pattern then, and our area just seemed to be ground zero for cold. I still remember wx maps on TV news showing a strong Arctic HP coming down over N MN, which seems rare these days.

We're coming off the peak of a warm Northern hemisphere climate cycle that has been going strong for nearly 38 years. Unsurprisingly, most of that warmth (relative to averages) for states in the centers of large land masses is registered in winter not in summer. Summer is much less cyclical and subject to much different atmospheric forces.

[OKwx2k4]

I'm ready for winter. Bought my WxBell subscription back. 7 days til mid-Autumn. Time to get my game face on. :-)

[Niko]

Yep, the heat-beat goes on for us Eastern peeps. Took the scenic route back roads over to Lk Michigan and it was a mini color tour (with the a/c blasting, lol). Trees should be awesome for the next 2-3 wks regardless of extended summer conditions. I'm not totally against it really. I still remember the rather cold Oct '09. A Chicago poster on Amwx was bemoaning how long it takes now to get chilly temps in autumn. Somebody looked it up and sure enough, the 70s & 80s had more consistently early cold and Frost's in Chicago. It's not just the heat island effect either, there was a different backdrop to the pattern then, and our area just seemed to be ground zero for cold. I still remember wx maps on TV news showing a strong Arctic HP coming down over N MN, which seems rare these days.

I was blasting the AC in my car as well and also at my home earlier. Looks like I will be running the AC right into next week. For nearing mid October, that's kinda odd.

[Niko]

My temp currently is holding @ 61F. Keep in mind, my average high is 63F.

[Minny_Weather]

Currently, at 11:18 PM, we are 7° higher than our forecasted high tomorrow. We are currently at 62° on my patio.

[OKwx2k4]

This is gonna be awesome.

 

 

I like the progression after it also. Looking like a pattern that traps cool air over our regions for long periods of time as we get into the winter months.