October 2017 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

 

 

This weekend looks like a another good opportunity for showers and

even some thunderstorms as another dynamic low pressure system

swings out of the northern Rockies and into the Great Lakes. 

 

Finally!! 

[Niko]

Finally!! 

Exactly, lets hope this trend is our friend this upcoming Winter season.

[Tom]

After looking at the latest guidance, I think the game is going to be cancelled today. Not a good day for baseball.

 

The radar is lighting up to the south and is only supposed to get heavier. If I were to make a decision, I would cancel. Ugly looking afternoon with a strong wind off the lake and likely very heavy rain at times.

[Tom]

12z Euro trending towards the GFS with the weekend system...less amped that's for sure...

[jaster220]

Tbh...I honestly wish that Winterstorms didn't have any names. Just plain Winterstorm Watch or Warning would've been just fine. All these names are ridiculous. Ofc, tropical systems I have no issue with having them named.

 

I have this in my sig on the local SMI forum 

 

 

 

"In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself"

[james1976]

GFS with a nice looking storm at the end of its run. Haha

Lala land

[jaster220]

12z Euro trending towards the GFS with the weekend system...less amped that's for sure...

 

Tbh, the same kinda happened last weekend. Sans a strong cold push out of Canada, we barely had a cold front temps drop. Surely wasn't your typical robust autumn chill like the N Plains just experienced. The cold has to be on the move into our region, not just parked up north, otherwise the SLP just goes to the cold, and and the dynamics won't be there for the excitement us wx peeps want to see. Not to deflate, It's actually a bit early for those kind of systems. Need some snow cover or some better cold via a month from now. 

[jaster220]

GFS with a nice looking storm at the end of its run. Haha

Lala land

 

Map me, I'm game. This autumn should be one where some of these have a better chance a coming true. Or at least close

[Tom]

Our NE peeps get their first Freeze of the year tonight! Except for our OMA peeps...

[james1976]

What was once a large looking trough for next week is looking like just a glancing blow on Monday and then back to warmth per GFS.

[gabel23]

Our NE peeps get their first Freeze of the year tonight! Except for our OMA peeps...

 

 

After looking at the latest guidance, I think the game is going to be cancelled today. Not a good day for baseball.

 

The radar is lighting up to the south and is only supposed to get heavier. If I were to make a decision, I would cancel. Ugly looking afternoon with a strong wind off the lake and likely very heavy rain at times.

I'm kind of swaying back and forth about the freeze. My tomato and pepper plants have a lot of produce on them yet. I don't want to do what I did last year and cover everything up, I didn't get things cleaned up until about thanksgiving! I think I'm gonna just let the freeze take everything out! 

 

I'm also swaying back and forth about the game tonight. I missed last night's game, gonna be late for tonight's game and would miss the make-up game Wednesday because of conferences. This week sucks for my schedule!!! GO CUBS!

[jaster220]

 

 

You have to love a system that trends upward as it approaches, eh?? RPM had me fooled yesterday, guess it's a shorter time-frame model or they didn't run it out to the time stamp they posted on the graphic?, or it's just truly been playing catch-up to the dynamic situation. Not sure tbh..

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

Are you guys out in IA getting some pretty good downpours?

[james1976]

Are you guys out in IA getting some pretty good downpours?

Yeah nice steady rain. Only 47°

[BrianJK]

Wondering if there's enough West to east component on this system that will allow it to move on by in a couple hours. Maybe postpone the Cubs game to 7 start time?

[St Paul Storm]

If they used the weather forecast yesterday to make the decision to play in the afternoon today, they should follow the same thought process to make a decision now about either postponing or delaying the start time. Makes sense doesn’t it?

[NEJeremy]

Our NE peeps get their first Freeze of the year tonight! Except for our OMA peeps...

fine with me

[Tom]

I heard that both the Cubs & Nationals wanted a 1:00pm start time but TBS refused...#Ratings...idiots...

 

Edit: When greed is more important than the players safety

[Tom]

Wondering if there's enough West to east component on this system that will allow it to move on by in a couple hours. Maybe postpone the Cubs game to 7 start time?

It looks like the models want to have the SLP pivot across C IL which basically causes this thing to move so slowly.  I don't think a later start time is any better.  Earlier would have been the better but TBS was all to worried about ratings.

[Iowawx]

Been a very dreary day here in Cedar Rapids, IA. Sitting at 48 degrees with a windchill of 43. We’ve had a constant rain since at least 11:00am today and looks to continue overnight. So far, radar estimates show we’ve gotten about an inch of rain as of 4:00pm. Could get to 1.5 or close to 2 by tommrow.

[Minny_Weather]

We're under a freeze warning. That was unexpected.

[Tom]

Drum roll please...NLDS Game 4 has been cancelled...

[jaster220]

Been a very dreary day here in Cedar Rapids, IA. Sitting at 48 degrees with a windchill of 43. We’ve had a constant rain since at least 11:00am today and looks to continue overnight. So far, radar estimates show we’ve gotten about an inch of rain as of 4:00pm. Could get to 1.5 or close to 2 by tommrow.

Tom posted: "Someone may be measuring snow depths in yard sticks this year! Impressive!"

 

With that qpf in winter? Tom's gonna nail it!

[jaster220]

[james1976]

0.62" today. temp stayed in the 40s!

[jaster220]

At Tom

 

You getting any drenching yet? Large area of hvy returns heading into S Chicago.

[Niko]

I have this in my sig on the local SMI forum 

[Niko]

They finally updated after two days. Prolly cuz this breaks the broken record dryness they needed to make sure they weren't seeing a mirage lol

 

usa_ICast (2).gif

Thats a fricken excellent track for heavy snow in SMI.

[Niko]

Cloudy and coolish outside. Temp holding in the 50s. No rain as of yet.

[Tom]

At Tom

 

You getting any drenching yet? Large area of hvy returns heading into S Chicago.

Oh ya, picked up close to .60" of rain thus far with a breezy wind coming out of the NE.  Finally, a real autumnal feel to the day/night.  Radar has lit up to the SW and should be rotating here overnight.  

[Niko]

Rain on the way! its looking like a soggy, Autumn, chilly, dismal day tomorrow. Radar looking good!

[Hawkeye]

1.14" in my yard today.

[Niko]

I could be looking at healthy rain totals. Maybe 1"+.

[james1976]

Frost Advisories have been extended a bit further to the east in IA but still a few counties from me. One of these nights!

[james1976]

Weekend system looking rather weak on 0z GFS. Just doesn't get wrapped up. Curious what 0z Euro will show.

[Tom]

Today's spinning cyclone looks real healthy on the radar this morning.  A widespread defo band has spread across the Lower Lakes as it spins near Kankakee, IL:

 

 

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-88.36,41.22,3000

 

 

This storm system looks very promising for future cycles.  Picked up another .95 so far since midnight and a total creeping close to 2".

[jaster220]

Today's spinning cyclone looks real healthy on the radar this morning.  A widespread defo band has spread across the Lower Lakes as it spins near Kankakee, IL:

 

 

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-88.36,41.22,3000

 

 

This storm system looks very promising for future cycles.  Picked up another .95 so far since midnight and a total creeping close to 2".

 

To bolded:

 

#1 - it's really impressive. Came further north after all 

 

 

 

 

Very surprised at the winds, considering the high baro

 

 

 

 

 

#2 - I posted the same, lol

 

 

Winds with this nice event are a pleasant surprise. Should be sweet if this cycles back during the new SRC. 

 

#3 - Wow, what a storm this would be for you if that were +SN ..Dude you'd be buried!

[Tom]

To bolded:

 

#1 - it's really impressive. Came further north after all 

 

20171011 Intellicast GLs map-5am Obs.jpg

 

 

Very surprised at the winds, considering the high baro

 

20171011 Intellicast GLs wind map-6am Obs.jpg

 

20171011 KLAN Obs 7am.JPG

 

#2 - I posted the same, lol

 

 

#3 - Wow, what a storm this would be for you if that were +SN ..Dude you'd be buried!

Jaster, you hit it on the head my man...read my mind buddy!  I woke this morning and checked the radar and noticed the jog north as well.  It's the most ideal track for MBY to not only sit under the defo band but get the lake involved.  It's pretty breezy and gusty out there today.  I could hear the winds blowing the trees all night as the rain drops pelted my sky light.  It's going to be a dreary, damp, raw day at Wrigley.  Prob misty and very wet.  Quite the contrast to last year when it was in the 70's and 80's pretty much all of October and a SSW wind!

[Niko]

It finally looks like an October day.....wet, breezy and chilly.....temps in the upper 40s.

[Niko]

This storm track today is an ideal track for some nice, heavy snowfall in SEMI during Winter. Cant be better than this.