October 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Winds are becoming gusty as the CF is making its way through the area.  Temps are already dropping into the 50's across the NW burbs as things begin to dry out.  This has been an impressive long-lasting system and as Jaster said, the amount of real estate it effected was impressive as well.  Very unusual to have so much moisture in an Autumn storm.  It reminded me of the flooding rain events we have had over the summer back in July that targeted the northern burbs.  This time, nature wanted to balance that out and hit the southern burbs.

 

The well-timed, tranquil and gorgeous fall weather expected this week couldn't happen at a better time.  Need to dry out and enjoy beautiful temps and ample sunshine.  Our boys in blue need to steal one game today in LA and come back home to Wrigley!  The winds are forecast to be out of the S/SW for all 3 games which may be bad for pitchers, but good for the hitters.  Another Schwarber bomb???

 

@ Gabel, what game would you want to come see???

[Tom]

Last week, the intensification of the N PAC jet was well depicted by the GEFS.  How would that impact out wx downstream was the question.  We can now see a clearer picture on what impacts that will produce for the Lower 48.  Initially, it will flood the lower 48 with warm PAC air, but soon enough, the jet amplifies as the Vortex which has been spinning near the Archipelago region since the 11th of this month will retrograde west towards AK/Bearing Sea between the 20th-22nd.  In turn, it will cause the +PNA pattern to blossom and amplify the N.A. pattern.

[westMJim]

Here at my house I recorded 2.36″ of rain for this event. The temperature here now has dropped from 68° and is now down to 58° still getting light rain. To the south of here.  The Kalamazoo area picked up over six inches of rain. At Kalamazoo WMUs homecoming game was cancelled due to flooding at the stadium 

[Tom]

Here at my house I recorded 2.36″ of rain for this event. The temperature here now has dropped from 68° and is now down to 58° still getting light rain. To the south of here.  The Kalamazoo area picked up over six inches of rain. At Kalamazoo WMUs homecoming game was cancelled due to flooding at the stadium 

I saw video yesterday of the rain water just pouring into the stadium like a river from the steps leading into the stadium.  Pretty nuts!

 

Here are some more totals in our area...

 

[jaster220]

Here at my house I recorded 2.36″ of rain for this event. The temperature here now has dropped from 68° and is now down to 58° still getting light rain. To the south of here. The Kalamazoo area picked up over six inches of rain. At Kalamazoo WMUs homecoming game was cancelled due to flooding at the stadium

 

Funny how GRR never updated their Rainfall graphic even after it was clear that the axis of worst rainfall (and true flash flooding) had shifted well south to the 94 corridor. Idk what's with that office, but when you reside this far away from GR, you can plan on getting 2nd class citizen service.

 

Still up on their site currently..

 

 

[Niko]

Strong CF will be pushing through SEMI later today. Winds are already howling.

[Niko]

 

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI

459 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017
 

MIZ068>070-075-076-082-083-160900-

Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-

459 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017
 

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast

Michigan.
 

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
 

A chance for an isolated thunderstorm exists today along and ahead

of an approaching cold front. Strong wind gusts of 50 mph will be

possible with any thunderstorm activity. The most favorable time

period for thunderstorm development is between 10 AM and 1 PM EDT.
 

Strong west winds will develop in the wake of a cold front passage.

West winds are expected to increase during the late morning and

afternoon with wind speeds of 40 to 45 mph possible.
 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday
 

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 

[Niko]

I think next week will feature the last 70s of this season as chilly air is settled in here for good by that time.

[jaster220]

Whoa! So much wx to track! Hvy rain and serious gusts just came with CF passage! Better late than never. Radar lit up with SN to our north. Our autumn will be compressed to about 10 days by the looks of things, LOL

[Tom]

Just took a stroll around the neighborhood and its dang chilly out there with temps dropping into low 50's amid gusty winds!  This is by far the chilliest day of the season and sets the mood heading into Football Sunday.  RPM suggests temps dipping into upper 40's by around Noon so we'll see if that happens.  

[jaster220]

Just took a stroll around the neighborhood and its dang chilly out there with temps dropping into low 50's amid gusty winds!  This is by far the chilliest day of the season and sets the mood heading into Football Sunday.  RPM suggests temps dipping into upper 40's by around Noon so we'll see if that happens.

 

Keeping track of how the GFS did with pressure calls. Currently looks like 997 over Huron.

 

 

[jaster220]

Had to post this 00z Euro Day 9-10 map for fun...been a long time...could there be wintry precip with this one??? Euro is showing back to back cutters with the second one being the strongest.

 

 

Wow, did these end up coming south, eh?? Right into our neck of the woods (as we say in MI)

[jaster220]

@ Tom how do I delete old posts again to free up available storage? Using my Android and don't see any options under My Content where I thought it was b4? Thx

[james1976]

GFS has about a week and a half of boring weather coming up. Looks exciting toward end of month.

[Tom]

@ Tom how do I delete old posts again to free up available storage? Using my Android and don't see any options under My Content where I thought it was b4? Thx

It's under My Settings, then Manage Attachments...then delete them 1 by 1...

[Niko]

Winds are picking up and temps will begin taking a dip soon. Currently, mostly cloudy and temps in the upper 60s.

[Tom]

GFS has about a week and a half of boring weather coming up. Looks exciting toward end of month.

We need a break after the onslaught of rain over the past week!  We usually see a long period of pleasant weather every fall during the month of October.  The northern hemisphere is going through a massive change and when this happens it typically produces tranquil weather for us. I'm all for it before the chill arrives later next week.

[Niko]

Just checked my temp and readings are @ 73F ....big jump in just a few minutes from 68F. Also, saw on radar a strong line of storms moving through SEMI. Here comes the front.

[Minny_Weather]

Despite the first freeze already occurring here and areas North and West, my county and counties to the North, West, and East are under a frost advisory tonight. Lows should bottom out in the mid-30s.

[james1976]

Cloudy, windy and only 46 here. Feels like late fall!

[jaster220]

Per NWS report

 

...Calhoun County...

1 E Brownlee Park 6.50 in 0850 AM 10/15 42.32N/85.11W

Battle Creek 4.75 in 0700 AM 10/15 42.31N/85.23W

W K Kellogg Airport 4.69 in 0753 AM 10/15 42.31N/85.25W

Marshall Brooks Field 3.26 in 0754 AM 10/15 42.26N/84.96W

 

About 10 am, and lighter rain is still falling on n off. Just west side of Kzoo had 8.83" in last 4 days. Largest regional AMT I've seen and the shallow small ponds that had dried up should be replenished after these two storms.

 

Edit- looks to be about done now with last recorded AMT @11:54. Total = 3.4"

Edited October 15, 2017 by jaster220

[Niko]

Big wind driven rain just moved through my area....gusts must have been at least 40 to 50 mph.

[jaster220]

The main SLP seemed a little late to ramp up, thus I don't see the winds reaching forecasted levels. Nothing major currently, and this is about peek hours here.

 

 

[jaster220]

Huron mnts in the UP where they had some flakes flying overnight. #colordone!

 

 

[jaster220]

I hear the surf's up along the coast line, grab your wetsuit!

 

 

[james1976]

I hear the surf's up along the coast line, grab your wetsuit!

Where is this?

images.jpg

[Niko]

Temps are starting to drop off now.

[Niko]

I hear the surf's up along the coast line, grab your wetsuit!

 

images.jpg

That looks like fun!

[Niko]

Huron mnts in the UP where they had some flakes flying overnight. #colordone!

 

IMG_1263.thumb.JPG.18614e20843a6fffd5ef6a690bb42172.JPG

I am surprise they have gone bare already. Not too far north from me and I still have color going on. TBH, my area is at near peak.

[Niko]

Temps are already dropping in the upper 50s. Colder air rushing in.

[jaster220]

 

 

I hear the surf's up along the coast line, grab your wetsuit!

Where is this?images.jpg

Saint Joseph, in Berrien Cnty where I work.

[Niko]

Looks like more showers might be pushing in b4 if finally clears out.

[Niko]

Feels great outside.....clouds, wind, cooler temps....just beautiful.

[Tom]

LM is starting to fire up some lake effect rain showers in MI.  WestJim, are you getting any precip from this?

[james1976]

Saint Joseph, in Berrien Cnty where I work.

Nice!Ive been to St. Joseph once!

[james1976]

Sun came out. Temp managed to make it to 55.

[james1976]

Just noticed im in a Frost Advisory tonight. Awesome!

[Niko]

My lows are dipping into the mid to upper 30s tanite!! No advisories for now.

[Niko]

Earlier today, I saw a couple of branches that had fallen off from the trees and also 2 trees were uprooted. Strong winds and a saturated ground are a bad combination.

[Niko]

Late Summer still wants to hang on until all of next week b4 the big change:

 

High pressure will stay in place over the Mid-Atlantic states
through the extended period, meaning mostly benign weather for SE
Michigan in the week ahead. A tightening surface pressure gradient
will lead to breezy conditions Wednesday. Mild temperatures expected
Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the mid to upper 60s. A weak
cold front is progged to pass through the area on Thursday with no
preciptation expected, and above average temperatures will continue
into Friday and Saturday; highs reaching the low 70s both days. Next
chance of rain returns next Sunday as a stronger cold front moves
into the Great Lakes.