October 2017 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

Halloween weekend is looking brutal for practically all of us this year. Your not going to be seeing too much skin showing from the ladies this year! The 12z EPS is even showing signs of snow flakes all the way down in E OK/W AR/SW MO/SE NE.

Iirc, Halloween of '89 in SEMI was about 39 degs with a brisk breeze. Absolutely frigid for the kiddies! Glad I wasn't one by then. I only remember balmy beautiful trick-or-treating wx when I was going with buddies in the era when you could wait til 7 and stay out til 11, without any chaperone. That was so much fun; back then. Ofc you had to watch out for older teens who liked to hurl raw eggs and the such at younger punks like us middle schoolers.

[Tom]

Today our high/low temps were spot on normal for this time of year 62F/43F.  Even a normal day felt like a chilly day compared to the recent warmth we've seen.  Very much looking forward to the 70's mid/late week as I'm thinking it will be the last we see them for this year.  #Lastbeachday

[WBadgersW]

Snow on the 27th/28th? Oh fantasy

 

On a serious note, the state cross country races are on that weekend in WI rapids. Might be a cold one

[Niko]

Gorgeous evening outside, although, chilly. Temp at 44F.

[jaster220]

Gorgeous evening outside, although, chilly. Temp at 44F.

42 here, fell like a rock since I was out couple hrs ago

 

Looking back at the storm, GRR had a nice summary page, including lists of various reports. Looks like they would've nailed the winds had they just rode their first map!

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI

1118 AM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017

 

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

 

0750 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NW ROOSEVELT PARK 43.23N 86.34W

10/15/2017 M47 MPH MUSKEGON MI MESONET

 

MESONET STATION MKGM4, MUSKEGON GLERL.

 

0855 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NNW SAUGATUCK 42.68N 86.22W

10/15/2017 M46 MPH LMZ845 MI MESONET

 

MESONET STATION XSTK, SAUGATUCK PIER.

 

0830 AM NON-TSTM WND GST MACATAWA 42.77N 86.21W

10/15/2017 M45 MPH OTTAWA MI MESONET

 

MESONET STATION HLNM4, HOLLAND HARBOR.

 

0957 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SSW SPRINGFIELD 42.31N 85.25W

10/15/2017 M45 MPH CALHOUN MI ASOS

 

ASOS STATION BTL, W K KELLOGG AIRPORT.

 

0902 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 W GRAND HAVEN 43.06N 86.26W

10/15/2017 M44 MPH LMZ846 MI MESONET

 

MESONET STATION XGHL, GRAND HAVEN PIER.

 

0830 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SW WHITEHALL 43.37N 86.42W

10/15/2017 M43 MPH MUSKEGON MI MESONET

 

MESONET STATION D2963, WHITEHALL LIGHTHOUSE.

 

0914 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 ENE KENTWOOD 42.89N 85.54W

10/15/2017 M43 MPH KENT MI ASOS

 

ASOS STATION GRR, GERALD R FORD INTL.

 

0949 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 WNW JACKSON 42.26N 84.46W

10/15/2017 M41 MPH JACKSON MI ASOS

 

ASOS STATION JXN, JACKSON COUNTY-REYNOLDS

FIELD AIRPORT.

 

0910 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 W PORT SHELDON 42.90N 86.30W

10/15/2017 M40 MPH LMZ874 MI BUOY

 

BUOY STATION 45029, PORT SHELDON BUOY.

 

0956 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 S IONIA 42.94N 85.06W

10/15/2017 M40 MPH IONIA MI AWOS

 

AWOS STATION Y70, IONIA COUNTY ARPT.

[Niko]

42 here, fell like a rock since I was out couple hrs ago

 

Looking back at the storm, GRR had a nice summary page, including lists of various reports. Looks like they would've nailed the winds had they just rode their first map!

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI

1118 AM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017

 

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

 

0750 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NW ROOSEVELT PARK 43.23N 86.34W

10/15/2017 M47 MPH MUSKEGON MI MESONET

 

MESONET STATION MKGM4, MUSKEGON GLERL.

 

0855 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NNW SAUGATUCK 42.68N 86.22W

10/15/2017 M46 MPH LMZ845 MI MESONET

 

MESONET STATION XSTK, SAUGATUCK PIER.

 

0830 AM NON-TSTM WND GST MACATAWA 42.77N 86.21W

10/15/2017 M45 MPH OTTAWA MI MESONET

 

MESONET STATION HLNM4, HOLLAND HARBOR.

 

0957 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SSW SPRINGFIELD 42.31N 85.25W

10/15/2017 M45 MPH CALHOUN MI ASOS

 

ASOS STATION BTL, W K KELLOGG AIRPORT.

 

0902 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 W GRAND HAVEN 43.06N 86.26W

10/15/2017 M44 MPH LMZ846 MI MESONET

 

MESONET STATION XGHL, GRAND HAVEN PIER.

 

0830 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SW WHITEHALL 43.37N 86.42W

10/15/2017 M43 MPH MUSKEGON MI MESONET

 

MESONET STATION D2963, WHITEHALL LIGHTHOUSE.

 

0914 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 ENE KENTWOOD 42.89N 85.54W

10/15/2017 M43 MPH KENT MI ASOS

 

ASOS STATION GRR, GERALD R FORD INTL.

 

0949 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 WNW JACKSON 42.26N 84.46W

10/15/2017 M41 MPH JACKSON MI ASOS

 

ASOS STATION JXN, JACKSON COUNTY-REYNOLDS

FIELD AIRPORT.

 

0910 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 W PORT SHELDON 42.90N 86.30W

10/15/2017 M40 MPH LMZ874 MI BUOY

 

BUOY STATION 45029, PORT SHELDON BUOY.

 

0956 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 S IONIA 42.94N 85.06W

10/15/2017 M40 MPH IONIA MI AWOS

 

AWOS STATION Y70, IONIA COUNTY ARPT.

My lows will be in the 30s again tanite......

[Niko]

Currently @ 41F. Crystal clear skies and nippy.

[westMJim]

42° here now. Was downtown and my car had 49° there.

[Niko]

Temps are dropping fast. Already at 39F. My lows will easily reach the mid 30s by morning, if not lower. Again, no frost for my area as the winds continue to be too fast.

[Tom]

Overnight runs of the GFS/EURO are intriguing for next week.  Both are trending colder for Mon/Tue period and by next weekend, could we see our first Lake Effect snow showers???  Heck, both Euro/GFS show some type of system traversing the Lakes that may bring the first flakes by the 27th.

 

 

 

[Niko]

Brisk, cold morning as temps try to recover from the 30s. Low last night dipped down to a nippy 35F. Brr. I also noticed that my average high and low each day is dropping quite fast.

[Niko]

Color here in SEMI is getting to be more to near peak. In about 2 weeks or so, everything should be bare. Definitely by months end.

[james1976]

[Tom]

Brisk, cold morning as temps try to recover from the 30s. Low last night dipped down to a nippy 35F. Brr. I also noticed that my average high and low each day is dropping quite fast.

Do you live in a valley out in Macomb?  Most wx stations are reporting low 40's around that area and I'm curious if your in a pocket where you get the coldest readings.

[Niko]

Do you live in a valley out in Macomb?  Most wx stations are reporting low 40's around that area and I'm curious if your in a pocket where you get the coldest readings.

No....I am pretty sure it has to do with elevation. Elevation at center is: 614 feet (187 meters). Temp as of now is at 43F.

[Niko]

From Noaa:

 

Heading into the weekend, the weather will become more unsettled, as
the Pacific energy digs a deep longwave trough across the central
Plains, with increasing clouds for Saturday. Latest runs of the GFS
and ECMWF introduce heightened forecast uncertainty for the weekend,
largely due to the fact that the guidance often struggles handling
the evolution of Pacific energy in the 5-7 day period. The latest
GFS shears out the trough and brings a cold front through the region
Sunday with a period of showers, while the ECMWF develops a closed
upper-level low over Texas, with the region sandwiched in a split
flow regime. With the timeframe being late October, the potential
for cutoff systems increases as northern stream PV and the southern
stream jet become more active, so will need to monitor trends over
the coming days, but a low confidence forecast for the weekend
outlook at this time. Temperatures over the weekend will ultimately
depend on the synoptic evolution, but above normal temps at the very
least will still be in place.

[Niko]

@ Jaster,

 

Did you get frost last night?

[Tom]

From Noaa:

 

Heading into the weekend, the weather will become more unsettled, as

the Pacific energy digs a deep longwave trough across the central

Plains, with increasing clouds for Saturday. Latest runs of the GFS

and ECMWF introduce heightened forecast uncertainty for the weekend,

largely due to the fact that the guidance often struggles handling

the evolution of Pacific energy in the 5-7 day period. The latest

GFS shears out the trough and brings a cold front through the region

Sunday with a period of showers, while the ECMWF develops a closed

upper-level low over Texas, with the region sandwiched in a split

flow regime. With the timeframe being late October, the potential

for cutoff systems increases as northern stream PV and the southern

stream jet become more active, so will need to monitor trends over

the coming days, but a low confidence forecast for the weekend

outlook at this time. Temperatures over the weekend will ultimately

depend on the synoptic evolution, but above normal temps at the very

least will still be in place.

 

This is something I've been monitoring since last week to see what happens with the strong PAC energy as it hits the west between the 20th-22nd period.  I knew it would cut underneath the developing block in Canada but was unsure how it would actually evolve.  Euro almost always tends cut-off energy in the SW and this is likely its bias while GFS is too fast.  Something likely in the middle of the 2 solutions will be the outcome.  I'd like to see how this energy is handled over the next few days as it will be another important piece to the puzzle with the developing LRC.

[Niko]

This is something I've been monitoring since last week to see what happens with the strong PAC energy as it hits the west between the 20th-22nd period.  I knew it would cut underneath the developing block in Canada but was unsure how it would actually evolve.  Euro almost always tends cut-off energy in the SW and this is likely its bias while GFS is too fast.  Something likely in the middle of the 2 solutions will be the outcome.  I'd like to see how this energy is handled over the next few days as it will be another important piece to the puzzle with the developing LRC.

Slowly, but surely, the puzzle will get completed to this developing LRC.

[Minny_Weather]

12z Euro is finally showing the cooldown weekend after next and boy is it satisfying. It has it coming in a bit earlier (and drier) than GFS. Can't complain about it being dry, snow is not normal for October anyway. We gotta get the cold air first, then we can worry about snow.

[Niko]

Temps are slowly warming into the 50s. Quite a big jump. Currently @ 53F. Gorgeous out there.

[Niko]

12z Euro is finally showing the cooldown weekend after next and boy is it satisfying. It has it coming in a bit earlier (and drier) than GFS. Can't complain about it being dry, snow is not normal for October anyway. We gotta get the cold air first, then we can worry about snow.

My temps might not be getting outta the 40's for highs. Yikes! Quite chilly. Keep in mind, average high is @ 59F.

[jaster220]

@ Jaster,

 

Did you get frost last night?

 

Nope, bottomed out at 40, so nadda for mby. Had colder lows in early Sept, LOL

[Niko]

Nope, bottomed out at 40, so nadda for mby. Had colder lows in early Sept, LOL

Nothing for me either. I had a breeze last night.

 

go figure!

[Minny_Weather]

12z GFS says "what cooldown," instead showing slightly below normal temps middle next week.

[Niko]

Currently at 59F. Absolutely beautiful outside. Its going to be a sweet week. Enjoy any outdoor activity.

[james1976]

12z GFS says "what cooldown," instead showing slightly below normal temps middle next week.

850s looked pretty interesting i thought......?

[Minny_Weather]

850s looked pretty interesting i thought......?

I was paying more attention to 2m temp anomalies.

[james1976]

I was paying more attention to 2m temp anomalies.

Ahh....i havent seen those

[jaster220]

12z GFS says "what cooldown," instead showing slightly below normal temps middle next week.

 

Well, would explain why Tom's not here posting on the topic, lol. Seriously though, it's been mentioned how horribly the GFS blows chunks with it's over-amped cold shots (just like it's over-amped storms), and especially early in the season. This wouldn't be the first time initial LR maps were wacked. Now, I also know the models are having their usual foggy focus whenever there's a major pattern shift in the offing. May just have to wait for the dust to settle a bit. 

 

Hopefully, our first pattern shift isn't de-railed before it gets rolling! That'd be ugly. 

[Tom]

Well, would explain why Tom's not here posting on the topic, lol. Seriously though, it's been mentioned how horribly the GFS blows chunks with it's over-amped cold shots (just like it's over-amped storms), and especially early in the season. This wouldn't be the first time initial LR maps were wacked. Now, I also know the models are having their usual foggy focus whenever there's a major pattern shift in the offing. May just have to wait for the dust to settle a bit. 

12z Euro/EPS still on board with a cool down next week, in fact, its trending colder near the Lakes for next Mon/Tue.  As you stated above, we just need to be patient and see how this pattern evolves as the PAC jet energy approaches closer to the west coast in the coming days.  Not only that, but the N Atlantic blocking will "fickle" with the models as well as the record MJO impluse.  Lot's going on in the atmosphere, including, but not limited to, the Strat warming ongoing over N Canada.

 

Been a busier day today so haven't posted much.  Need to take a napski to catch up on some sleep.  I've been early rising lately and the lack of sleep is catching up.

[Tom]

According to the 12z Euro, some spots near the Lakes will be under NW Flow and highs may not get out of the 40's next week Wed.  Depending on the track of the anticipated clipper just about Day 10, this will likely produce the first flakes for those north.  I think this system has potential to unleash a significant cold shot leading up to Halloween weekend. 

[jaster220]

12z Euro/EPS still on board with a cool down next week, in fact, its trending colder near the Lakes for next Mon/Tue. As you stated above, we just need to be patient and see how this pattern evolves as the PAC jet energy approaches closer to the west coast in the coming days. Not only that, but the N Atlantic blocking will "fickle" with the models as well as the record MJO impluse. Lot's going on in the atmosphere, including, but not limited to, the Strat warming ongoing over N Canada.

 

Been a busier day today so haven't posted much. Need to take a napski to catch up on some sleep. I've been early rising lately and the lack of sleep is catching up.

MJO on a gallop, LOL! I know that phases 8-1-2 usually mean cold for us in winter, but not sure about this time of year?

 

 

[jaster220]

According to the 12z Euro, some spots near the Lakes will be under NW Flow and highs may not get out of the 40's next week Wed. Depending on the track of the anticipated clipper just about Day 10, this will likely produce the first flakes for those north. I think this system has potential to unleash a significant cold shot leading up to Halloween weekend.

 

Sept = 60's/40's, Oct = 50's/30's, and Nov = 40's/20's

 

So, that'd be some Nov temps coming a few wks early if it pans out?

[Tom]

Sept = 60's/40's, Oct = 50's/30's, and Nov = 40's/20's

 

So, that'd be some Nov temps coming a few wks early if it pans out?

Big IF, but ya, may be on the table if the trough digs deep enough. Need that blocking to do its dirty work.

 

Today was a terrific Autumn day with gusty S/SW winds. Temps creep a little higher tomorrow with more ample sunshine. Looking forward to it.

[GDR]

Dodgers killing the cubs again!!

[Minny_Weather]

Dodgers killing the cubs again!!

Of course the Astros bullpen screwed us over. That was embarrassing.

[Tom]

After a cool August and a brief cold start to Sept, ORD has recorded 36 days of above normal temps since early (ish) Sept!  Impressive run...will it end???  The GFS seems to be in somewhat agreement with the Euro ushering in a decent cool shot for next Tue/Wed period primarily from IA/MN and points east.  Both models see a brief rebound (next Thu) as a colder push of air reloads just before Halloween weekend.

[Niko]

Sunny and gorgeous. Currently at 49F.

 

Btw: my highs for next week are showing to be only in the 40s and lows in the 30s, if not near the freezing mark. That's going to be the real first shot of chilly air thus far.

[Niko]

According to the 12z Euro, some spots near the Lakes will be under NW Flow and highs may not get out of the 40's next week Wed.  Depending on the track of the anticipated clipper just about Day 10, this will likely produce the first flakes for those north.  I think this system has potential to unleash a significant cold shot leading up to Halloween weekend. 

I am one of those spots. My highs for next Wednesday are forecast to be at 48F.