October 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

The coldest it has gotten so far this fall season at GRR is 40° this is the latest  in the fall without getting into the 30’s at Grand Rapids since 1914 when it happened on October 25^th   The average first 39° or colder low is on September 23^rd with a range of August 30^th (1976) to October 25^th (1914) 

Wow....that's absurd!

[jaster220]

As I cut my very green thick lush lawn, sweating once again! Trees are colorful, but otherwise there's little that looks or feels like autumn. #endlesssummer gonna crash hard!

 

Busy day but wanted to check in on this week's action, appreciate the updates!

[jaster220]

Wow....that's absurd!

I rang in Oct with a 35F morning, so I'm good

[Craig-OmahaWX]

12z ecmwf took away the system late in the week. From huge to almost nothing in hours lol. I should be used to it but sucks when they do that

[Minny_Weather]

12z ecmwf took away the system late in the week. From huge to almost nothing in hours lol. I should be used to it but sucks when they do that

We still get the cold. No need to hope for snow in October. Besides, a northerly shift will give us flakes.

[Hawkeye]

It's looking like my garden will go kaput at the end of the week.  The euro has 3-4 days with highs in the 40s, with a couple nights down in the 20s.

 

I hope my hummingbird leaves before then.  It doesn't use the feeders, so it'll be in big trouble if the plants freeze and it's still here.

[Niko]

I rang in Oct with a 35F morning, so I'm good

Not bad at all.

[Niko]

It's looking like my garden will go kaput at the end of the week.  The euro has 3-4 days with highs in the 40s, with a couple nights down in the 20s.

 

I hope my hummingbird leaves before then.  It doesn't use the feeders, so it'll be in big trouble if the plants freeze and it's still here.

I cool down substantially also. High 40's and lows in the low 30's, need I say 20's???!!!

[Niko]

Currently in the low 70s under mostly cloudy skies. Not a lot of sunshine today. Looks like they busted on the sun.

[Niko]

From NOAA:

 

Man, if it was later in November, look-out SMI.......

Depending on the eventual track of the surface low, high winds may
also come into play for at least a portion of the area. This
scenario will highly be dependent on the surface low track. For now,
agree with the thinking of Weather Prediction Center and will side
with a track favoring a blend of the 12z GFS/ECMWF, which takes the
low just east of the area.

Forecast becomes more uncertain heading into Tuesday as the likely
sub 990 hPa low pressure lifts north into Ontario. GFS continues
with a more progressive solution, while the ECMWF stalls the low
solidly in the mid 980s hPa in the vicinity of the Straits, which
would lead to a prolonged period of deformation rain showers and
gusty winds continuing into Wednesday. Temperatures will trend back
towards normal after Sunday, with highs Monday in the 60s and in the
50s Tuesday, with lows generally in the 40s.

While model guidance is now in much better agreement with the
overall synoptic pattern accompanying this low pressure system,
there are mesoscale factors that have yet to be resolved and will
play a significant factor in the intensity of impacts we may face.
Still, interests in southeast Michigan should continue to pay close
attention to the forecast over the coming days, as a more clearer
picture evolves.

 

 

@Jaster,

Ton of snow for UBY and mine, has this been a little deeper into Novemba!!!!

[Niko]

Tbh, I am really liking the way these storms are entering the picture so far. Idk, but, from what I can see, this could be a Winter remembered for big, to huge storms for a lot of members on here. Something we haven't seen for quite sometime. -NAO will be doing its job finally. Ofc, I must admit that suppression of storm systems always concerns me during Winter as well, but, I am not going to let that concern me now.

[Tom]

The coldest anomalies next Fri-Sat will be featured in the central CONUS of N.A. compared to the entire Northern Hemisphere...

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017102112/nh/eps_t2m_anom_nh_156.png

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017102112/nh/eps_t2m_anom_nh_180.png

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017102112/nh/eps_t2m_anom_nh_204.png

[Minny_Weather]

...A Major Shot of Cold Air Projected to Arrive Late Next Week...

 

The Central Plains has enjoyed a stretch of abnormally warm weather

the past few days. That will be a distant memory late next week as

the region is compensated by a stretch of unseasonably cold weather.

 

Some forecast guidance is indicating the possibility that high

temperatures could struggle to reach 40 degrees over much of north

central Kansas and south central Nebraska next Friday and

Saturday. In addition...widespread low temperatures below freezing

are likely both mornings. The coldest morning will be Saturday...

with lows in the 20s. This would end the growing season over

north central Kansas...where widespread freezing temperatures have

not occurred yet this fall.

 

This air will be cold enough that some areas could see the first

snowflakes of the season...but it is important to emphasize

that accumulating snow currently looks very unlikely.

 

Please continue to monitor the latest forecasts from the National

Weather Service in Hastings via our webpage or NOAA Weather Radio.

GID using their usual harsh wording routine in regards to the cold shot next week. Not sure if it's unseasonable, we will be about 15 degrees away from records, but definitely will be roughly 15 degrees below normal.

[Thunder98]

Weather potentially turns cold and cloudy with some snow in International Falls next weekend
 
 

[Niko]

Weather potentially turns cold and cloudy with some snow in International Falls next weekend

 

 

That 1-3 looks nice.

[Niko]

Current readings at 65F under mostly to partly cloudy skies. Its a fairly mild late October evening out there.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

18z gfs getting stronger with clipper next weekend and more south but still just north of Omaha lol. Baby steps!

[jaster220]

Been cleaning out my eaves troughs and roof patching where I had an issue with last weekend's deluge and it's none too soon after reading GRR's AFD. Marshall could get hit with another 3-6" of RN early in the week. Nothing like trial by fire of my handiwork..

 

"For Monday and Monday night...slug of heavy QPF expected as low

moves north with some embedded thunder possible as totals

approach .50. Precipitable water is approaching 1.75 inches which

is impressive for late October. Expect an inch or two across

eastern zones with higher amounts possible. Excessive rain of 3 to

5 inches is possible across the SE CWA if warm conveyor belt

feature stalls there for several hours."

 

I also like their mention of possible storm warnings on Lake Michigan, and some wet flakes further north. GEM has a sub 990 mb SLP passing just east of me and then spins in NMI for 24 hrs. I don't need to exaggerate when I say that if that played out, how epic it would be in the cold season for most if not all of Pure Michigan.

[OKwx2k4]

So, got new phone and site won't let me post images. Any ideas why? It's a Note 8.

[Niko]

Been cleaning out my eaves troughs and roof patching where I had an issue with last weekend's deluge and it's none too soon after reading GRR's AFD. Marshall could get hit with another 3-6" of RN early in the week. Nothing like trial by fire of my handiwork..

 

"For Monday and Monday night...slug of heavy QPF expected as low

moves north with some embedded thunder possible as totals

approach .50. Precipitable water is approaching 1.75 inches which

is impressive for late October. Expect an inch or two across

eastern zones with higher amounts possible. Excessive rain of 3 to

5 inches is possible across the SE CWA if warm conveyor belt

feature stalls there for several hours."

 

I also like their mention of possible storm warnings on Lake Michigan, and some wet flakes further north. GEM has a sub 990 mb SLP passing just east of me and then spins in NMI for 24 hrs. I don't need to exaggerate when I say that if that played out, how epic it would be in the cold season for most if not all of Pure Michigan.

This would have been a lot of snow. Its taking an excellent track. Just east of my area.

[Niko]

Color here in SEMI is getting close to near peak. There are some bare trees as well.

[jaster220]

Color here in SEMI is getting close to near peak. There are some bare trees as well.

We finally today are seeing trees bursting into color! Too bad viewing conditions aren't looking very good!

[jaster220]

@ Tom

 

CFS for Nov did a radical flip over to cold across CAN

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

My Astros are going to the World Series! I have been diehard for them since we moved to Houston in 2004. After our pennant in '05, I had to deal with 8 years of us sucking, but stuck with them through. Words cannot describe how awesome this feels. I had to hijack the thread to say that.

[Niko]

We finally today are seeing trees bursting into color! Too bad viewing conditions aren't looking very good!

Next week with windy conditions expected, most leaves will be falling off. So, yup, viewing conditions will not be too spectacular, but, not too bad either. Tbh, it could be a lot better.

[jaster220]

My Astros are going to the World Series! I have been diehard for them since we moved to Houston in 2004. After our pennant in '05, I had to deal with 8 years if us sucking, but stuck with them through. Words cannot describe how awesome this feels. I had to hijack the thread to say that.

Congrats man!

[Niko]

Noticeably milder tonight than last night. Lows might remain in the upper 40s. More 70s tomorrow and that's it! Colder air will make a visit to stay for good.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

GFS says first flakes next Friday here! 

 

[jaster220]

@ Jaster, 12z Euro spinning up a 978mb SLP HR 72...1978 coincidence? Ha! Oh, the synchronicities...

Hahaha!! Missed this earlier. Yeah, but Cat-5 storms only hit mby on Jan 26-27 lol, so it better come back on those dates..

[Minny_Weather]

GFS says first flakes next Friday here!

 

GFS and Euro are taking turns teasing us. Wonder if that'll be a theme this year.

 

Seriously though, I can see many locations in this region getting light (

[Tom]

So, got new phone and site won't let me post images. Any ideas why? It's a Note 8.

You might have to scroll to the bottom of the page when you sign in and click on "Full Version"...that will allow you to view the site as if you were online.

[Tom]

@ Tom

 

CFS for Nov did a radical flip over to cold across CAN

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201711.gif.f326341e2ee90610d8e1579283e29765.gif

Indeed, saw that yesterday...what's even more interesting, notice the NE PAC waters...they are warm and show no colder waters.  This is very interesting if these trends should persist along with a Bearing Sea trough.

 

5 Days ago, they were cold...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.SST.20171015.201711.gif

 

 

Here is today's run...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.SST.20171022.201711.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20171022.201711.gif

 

 

My Astros are going to the World Series! I have been diehard for them since we moved to Houston in 2004. After our pennant in '05, I had to deal with 8 years of us sucking, but stuck with them through. Words cannot describe how awesome this feels. I had to hijack the thread to say that.

 

Congrats!  That city needs something to cheer about after the devastation from Harvey.  Good luck!

[Tom]

It's another rather warm and a touch humid (65F/56F), breezy late October morning, which is running close to 10F above normal for the month.  ORD has been on an extended streak of AN days (42). This, of course, will come to an abrupt end by Tuesday around here.  All good things must come to an end and with that, so will the growing season for many farmers/growers by this coming weekend.

 

The evolution of the developing LRC pattern is nothing short but a spectacular show of blocking, large storms and an active pattern.  Every day I turn on the comp, the data that continues to come in, has me extremely fascinated at the magnitude of high latitude blocking and the notable long term long wave trough that is evidently setting up shop smack dab in the middle of our nation.

 

With that being said, who ordered snow per the 00z Euro all the way down south????  OKwx is gonna like this pattern this season!

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017102200/tx/ecmwf_acc_snow_tx_168.png

[Tom]

Has anyone noticed how almost every system (except for the Oct 6th-7th storm ) has been a slow mover??  This season will in all likelihood (if nothing drastic happens) end up producing slow moving wintry systems.  That alone, is going to be a drastic change compared to the past, oh, say, 5+ years???  Nearly every storm since about the 2012-13 season has zipped on by but the trends over this month and looking ahead are for storms to get blocked up in the pattern.  Models will always have a tough time figuring out where the blocking develops even 3 days out so keep that in the back of your mind when we track storm systems.  With the blocking, will come surprises...whether they are good or bad for your back yard is, of course, what brings the excitement and curiosity when the new model runs come in.  Giddy up boys and girls...this is going to be a fun season!

 

http://img46.laughinggif.com/pic/HTTPS9tZWRpYS5naXBoeS5jb20vbWVkaWEvYU1oNTlhS1I4dmpkQy9naXBoeS5naWYlog.gif

 

 

http://img67.laughinggif.com/pic/HTTPS9tLnBvcGtleS5jby85YzQ5NzAvZUxOOFEuZ2lm.gif

[Niko]

TWC has snowshowers mix with rain for my area Nov1st ............Tis the season. It gets quite chilly also. A lot of members will be feeling the chill.

[Niko]

I believe these will be the last 70s for the season until next year again. My projected high is 73F with lots of rain and wind for the next 2 days. Slow moving systems thus far this Autumn pointing to a great sign for our upcoming Winter season.

[Tom]

Overnight runs of the GEFS/EPS continue to lock in Winter from Halloween weekend into the first week of November.  If that is the case, then the pullback that I was anticipating is probably not going to happen.  By the time we get towards the 11/11 period, this may be a mid-winter pattern for some of us on here and if it goes to the extreme, oh boy, we are in for Ol' Man Winters onslaught according to the BSR rule.

 

00z EPS members are looking more wintry for our members across the board here.  The signal is actually a bit mind boggling if you ask me.  Haven't seen maps like these so early in the season in a very long time, in fact, probably never, since I've been really tracking the weather as much as I do now.  #Winteriscoming

[Tom]

The seasonal transition of the Northern Hemispheric pattern continues to develop, allowing the continued intensification of the PAC jet stream, esp out in East Asia as cold Siberian air funnels off the widespread snow cover.  Simultaneously, as the jet intensifies it also shifts a little farther south in time.  Check out the 00z GEFS jet stream forecasted winds over Japan and how it has a SW/NE flow out towards south of the Aleutians.  This, my friends, is going to translate into fun, fun fun come November.

 

 

[Niko]

@ westMJim

 

Do ya have any snowshowers in your forecast down the road?! Mine saids snowshowers mix w rain for Nov. 1st.

[Niko]

Overnight runs of the GEFS/EPS continue to lock in Winter from Halloween weekend into the first week of November.  If that is the case, then the pullback that I was anticipating is probably not going to happen.  By the time we get towards the 11/11 period, this may be a mid-winter pattern for some of us on here and if it goes to the extreme, oh boy, we are in for Ol' Man Winters onslaught according to the BSR rule.

 

00z EPS members are looking more wintry for our members across the board here.  The signal is actually a bit mind boggling if you ask me.  Haven't seen maps like these so early in the season in a very long time, in fact, probably never, since I've been really tracking the weather as much as I do now.  #Winteriscoming

My forecast during that timeframe has snowshowers!