October 2017 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

Another amazing feature about this pattern is the amount of extremely strong storms this October.  In what will be a span of a week, we will have another storm that may reach Bombogenesis criteria!  This time, it will be the EC that will see a very large cyclone later this weekend into Monday.

 

The Euro dropped the storms pressures into the upper 960's while the GFS is in the 970's....let the battle continue...

 

I find it pretty hilarious how the over-amped GFS has been the weak major for both of these legit bombs. Seems like the past 2 winters and even for Irma, it was much the opposite. What gives? I always thought that when we finally got a legit bomb, it'd be off the charts crazy showing something like 940 mb's or something. Yet, here we are and it's clearly missing it's stride on these. Just to keep that model's notoriety as less reliable? Idk, but I'm kinda disappointed. I really wanted to see the iso-bars on a 940-something storm over SMI, even if it was just a fantasy map 

[jaster220]

I noticed lots of low 20's interior regions of NMI this morning. That's what having leafs off the trees will net ya. We're weeks from that downstate tbh. 

 

 

[jaster220]

Even tho the main storm system would be an EC storm, I love the looks of the clipper system diving in from the NW. It looks like it really keeps SWMI under the trough in a WNW flow regime and would = ongoing LES 

 

 

[Tom]

Using the BSR, both GFS/EURO advertising a very deep trough across the Bearing Sea by 4th/5th...the placement of this trough should suggest a very deep trough across the Midwest somewhere for the last full week of October.  Could there be snow flakes flying somewhere before Halloween???

 

BSR rule was king in this long term forecast...many places seeing their first flakes and a major trough evolved this week.

[jaster220]

BSR was king in this long term forecast...many places seeing their first flakes and a major trough evolved this week.

 

You NAILED IT bud, great work poring over the maps looking for all the possible clues. Seems it's your thing. You sure you're not related to a certain person with the initials Jelly Bean?? 

[OKwx2k4]

Even tho the main storm system would be an EC storm, I love the looks of the clipper system diving in from the NW. It looks like it really keeps SWMI under the trough in a WNW flow regime and would = ongoing LES

 

20171026 12z 102hr GFS MSLP and anoms for 18z Oct 30.jpg

Imagine this pattern with blocking. It is going to be awesome.

[OKwx2k4]

This upcoming storm for the NE virtually guarantees that the NE is going to have a horrible and warm winter.

[jaster220]

Imagine this pattern with blocking. It is going to be awesome.

 

 

I think you want/need blocking. Not sure if it will help SMI tho?

 

 

 

This upcoming storm for the NE virtually guarantees that the NE is going to have a horrible and warm winter.

I know that hvy snow there in October is usually a bad omen, but what makes you say that about this system? It's just an entrained tropical remnant I thought.

[jaster220]

Near Nestoria, MI a bit of fresh snow from Tuesday's storm

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

 

I think you want/need blocking. Not sure if it will help SMI tho?

 

 

I know that hvy snow there in October is usually a bad omen, but what makes you say that about this system? It's just an entrained tropical remnant I thought.

Just an observation during this pattern transition and some pattern recognition (instinct) really. If the storm was ccoming up the central or western gulf I'd say we were screwed but it's much farther east. When blocking starts developing as we get through November, it is going to bottle up the progressive pattern and torch New England. In winter, planning on seeing that storm coming right through me to you instead of the east coast.

 

If we get the pattern I hope for, blocking will benefit you too. Ever seen a bowling ball try to cut through a West based NAO? It's what we both want to see. Trust me.

[Niko]

Currently mostly cloudy and a nip in the air as temps hover in the upper 40s.

[Niko]

Trees are becoming more bare now with peak colors around my area and by Halloween or a little shortly after, it will be completely bare in this region.

[jaster220]

Just an observation during this pattern transition and some pattern recognition (instinct) really. If the storm was ccoming up the central or western gulf I'd say we were screwed but it's much farther east. When blocking starts developing as we get through November, it is going to bottle up the progressive pattern and torch New England. In winter, planning on seeing that storm coming right through me to you instead of the east coast.

 

If we get the pattern I hope for, blocking will benefit you too. Ever seen a bowling ball try to cut through a West based NAO? It's what we both want to see. Trust me.

 

I'm no expert on the blocking, so I'll have to take your word for most of this. Nonetheless, it's been discussed before in the SMI forum by those more experienced and they're quite adamant that we (SMI) do well with an east-based -NAO, and the EC does best with a west-based -NAO. But as we've seen in recent winters, the tele-connections aren't the end-all be-all, and often what we think should happen with the pattern, doesn't. 

[OKwx2k4]

I'm no expert on the blocking, so I'll have to take your word for most of this. Nonetheless, it's been discussed before in the SMI forum by those more experienced and they're quite adamant that we (SMI) do well with an east-based -NAO, and the EC does best with a west-based -NAO. But as we've seen in recent winters, the tele-connections aren't the end-all be-all, and often what we think should happen with the pattern, doesn't.

It's very possible I could have the two NAO states backward in my mind also. Either way, I think winter looks good.

[OKwx2k4]

Here's the NAO. Wouldn't you want to shift that West if you were in SoMI or where I am?

 

[jzuzphreek]

36 degrees and overcast in St. Joe, MO. 

 

I started to type this post about 2 hours ago, and was going to say something about how I was pretty sure this was the coldest I'd ever experienced in October. And while, I don't keep daily temperature records, I realized there are other sources who do. So I went out to Weather Underground to see what they had to say. I decided to record the Monthly Minimum Low and Monthly Minimum High temps for each year for the location closest to where I lived that year. 

It turns out, I HAVE experienced October cold like this before! Actually, COLDER! I lived in Montgomery, AL in 1993 (the same year I experienced my first snow storm in March), and apparently the Minimum Low for the month was 30 F and the Minimum High for the month was only 42! It seems like lows in the 30s weren't uncommon for Montgomery back in the late 80s. 

 

Today is forecast to get up to about 44, and the temp tonight should drop to the upper 20s, so I just went with the lowest points so far today. 

 

Here's a nice graph I made.

 

 

[jaster220]

Here's the NAO. Wouldn't you want to shift that West if you were in SoMI or where I am?

 

NAO2.jpg

 

Oh, we both for sure prefer a neg NAO, what that map doesn't show is the typical jet stream path during storms with the two (E vs W) versions. The West-based forces the jet to dig further south than an East-based, thus better for OK, not so great up my way. 

 

Edit - the E vs W is the placement of the blocking HP up over Greenland and/or the Baffin Straight just to clarify. It's not the general storm track or cold pool shown on the maps in your post. 

[OKwx2k4]

Oh, we both for sure prefer a neg NAO, what that map doesn't show is the typical jet stream path during storms with the two (E vs W) versions. The West-based forces the jet to dig further south than an East-based, thus better for OK, not so great up my way. 

 

Edit - the E vs W is the placement of the blocking HP up over Greenland and/or the Baffin Straight just to clarify. It's not the general storm track or cold pool shown on the maps in your post.

 

Nina and Nino, along with AO make massive differences wrt the NAO state here. Not so much for you guys.

[westMJim]

Snow for Halloween?

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=GRR&issuedby=GRR&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary

[VMB443]

Finally got a freeze warning - Saturday night. Nice way to draw October to an end!

[OKwx2k4]

Sleet reported in Dallas, TX today according to Firsthand Weather. Would have to be pretty abnormal for October I would say.

[OKwx2k4]

Can't wait for this pattern in January and February. Good 24 hr temp swing here. Going below 32 right now. Leaves will be done in 2 weeks. Bring on winter.

 

[Tom]

Just heard on the news ORD officially had Flurries this morning....scattered rain/snow showers moving through N IL ATM...

 

[Tom]

Impressive cold out in the Plains this morning.  NW burbs of OMA/LNK reporting temps in the upper 10's!  Ouch...and this is without a snow cover...imagine what this will look like in Decem-brrrr!!!

[Niko]

Its cloudy and cold with a current reading of 37F along with a few passing flurries ladies and gentlemen.    First flurries of the season. Ofc, no accumulations are expected.

[Minny_Weather]

My balcony is 23*. Coldest temperature we've had since March 15.

 

LNK airport also reported flakes. I call bull.

[Andrew NE]

Eppley Airport is reporting a temp of 21 at 8:15am. Forecast low was 26. It's chilly outside this morning.

[OKwx2k4]

My view this AM if it will load. 26 degrees this morning and opening morning of OK muzzleloader season. Could not ask for better.

 

[jaster220]

@ photo

 

Your world is so cold, it's upside-down! Man, what a temp plunge, and you're not even in the Plains!

[Tom]

If you guys think the upper 10's were cold enough, Aberdeen, SD hit a low of 5F!  Are you serious??!!  

[jaster220]

If you guys think the upper 10's were cold enough, Aberdeen, SD hit a low of 5F!  Are you serious??!!

 

I remember having 5F at my place in Traverse 11-5-96. And it was about 8 pm lol, not a morning low. That year I had surgery on Halloween, while our first storm dumped 6" I was watching on TV from a hospital room while post-Op

[jaster220]

Been in the 30's ovva 15 hrs now, with wind. This cold's got some legs. If it flurried I've not seen 'em

[snowstorm83]

My balcony is 23*. Coldest temperature we've had since March 15.

 

LNK airport also reported flakes. I call bull.

Yeah and the sky conditions report was also clear at the time LOL. I've noticed that KLNK can be kind of suspect at times, especially for a station that's supposed to represent a largeish city.

[Tom]

Been in the 30's ovva 15 hrs now, with wind. This cold's got some legs. If it flurried I've not seen 'em

While driving my Mom to the airport this morning (AZ snowbird season), it was pretty cold TBH, pavement was wet and the clouds had that "cold" stratus look to them when you see in the winter months.  Low hanging, with intermittent peaks of sunshine....almost like you see during a LES event.  It's definitely setting the tone for the cold season around here.

[Niko]

Been in the 30's ovva 15 hrs now, with wind. This cold's got some legs. If it flurried I've not seen 'em

I saw a few this morning flying around. Cant believe ya didn't  catch a few of them in the air.

[Niko]

Currently, mostly cloudy and cold w temps in the upper 30s. WCF all day was in the 30s. Tbh, it felt like early Decemba!!!

[OKwx2k4]

@ photo

 

Your world is so cold, it's upside-down! Man, what a temp plunge, and you're not even in the Plains!

Lol. Oops. I'm not sure how that happened. Anyway, that's what my home part of my state looks like. I love it. Just wish I averaged about 12 more inches of snow per year. Lol

[jaster220]

18z GFS takes that EC storm and gets it down to 957 mb! Sure, it's up in Caribou country but Dang. Great signs for the winter imho. Lovin' the powerhouse storms.

[Niko]

18z GFS takes that EC storm and gets it down to 957 mb! Sure, it's up in Caribou country but Dang. Great signs for the winter imho. Lovin' the powerhouse storms.

I have noticed that as well. Thus far, big storms have been occurring.

[Niko]

TS Philippe will hit FL. and head on up the EC towards the Carolinas providing heavy rains and strong winds and then, become a strong low pressure area further north. Big cities are looking at a big Nor'Easter from this.

 

Btw: This could become a newly formed hybrid tropical storm and will catch people off guard in places such as NYC and B-town.