January 2018 Observations and Discussions

[westMJim]

On the way home. We stopped at a motel in Ripley, WV it was the cruise was nice. Will post more when I get home. The weather was nice in Florida when we left sunny and temperatures in the low 70's We stopped at a friend of mine who lives south of st Augustine. There on the beach the temps were in the upper 60's with the sun in and out. The trip from st Augustine to here started out cloudy and mild but then the rain set and we had rain and then fog lots of fog all the way to the WV border. The last temperature here I seen in the car was 37°

[westMJim]

@ Tom sorry to hear about your loss. 

[jaster220]

On the way home. We stopped at a motel in Ripley, WV it was the cruise was nice. Will post more when I get home. The weather was nice in Florida when we left sunny and temperatures in the low 70's We stopped at a friend of mine who lives south of st Augustine. There on the beach the temps were in the upper 60's with the sun in and out. The trip from st Augustine to here started out cloudy and mild but then the rain set and we had rain and then fog lots of fog all the way to the WV border. The last temperature here I seen in the car was 37°

Glad you had a nice trip! A few flurries falling here already, and a stiff NE wind feels chilly on the face after several warm sunny days

[Niko]

Temps falling to near freezing with partly cloudy skies.

[jaster220]

@ Niko

 

You're (we're) gettin a nice surprise system, eh? Looking good over your way? I already had some +SN recorded at the airport around 1 am (was asleep ofc), and I measured 1.7" about 6 am with my grid calling for up to 2 more during the daylight hours. We even got the GRR headline for Calhoun, so considering NOTHING was touted for this event all week, I have to consider it a pretty big win. I'll say this, Monday's have been gold this winter, lol 

 

 Not hard to take, especially with such a beautiful weekend too

 

 

 

 

 

 

[jaster220]

Had to perform a sanity check on my "Mondays are gold" statement above. LOL, I could use a month of Mondays per this list..

 

  1/1: 0.4" snow

  1/8: 2.0" snow

1/15: 2.5" snow

1/22: rain

1/29: 1.7" snow (& still snowing)

[westMJim]

Good morning from Ripley WV at this time it is cloudy and the reported temperature is 32° will be nice to be home tonight and sleep in my own bed and be able to see our older real kids and our fur babies. I see Michigan has some light snow falling at this time.

[Tom]

Had to perform a sanity check on my "Mondays are gold" statement above. LOL, I could use a month of Mondays per this list..

 

  1/1: 0.4" snow

  1/8: 2.0" snow

1/15: 2.5" snow

1/22: rain

1/29: 1.7" snow (& still snowing)

The ICON had this short wave on its radar a few days ago but was farther south.  Nonetheless, it's looking like a nice score for you guys in S MI.

[jaster220]

The ICON had this short wave on its radar a few days ago but was farther south.  Nonetheless, it's looking like a nice score for you guys in S MI.

 

Yes, I mentioned it in the SMI forum since you had made that post about it. Did you get anything from this at all? I thought the ICON looked good for ORD when you made that gif trend post? 

 

Meanwhile, some areas north of me a county or so already reported 3-5" by 3:30 am! Crazy sneaky system, and this SLP popped just perfect for SMI - go figure. I feel like I've been transported back to the 80's pre-model watching era..

 

[jaster220]

NIKO!!! 

 

  Upgraded to a Warning for 6-10"  Where the h*ll are you???   

[Niko]

NIKO!!! 

 

  Upgraded to a Warning for 6-10"  Where the h*ll are you???   

:lol:....I just saw that. What the hell happened?! Outta nowhere, BAM! It is snowing like crazy out there. Winds are gusty as well.

 

Are you in a Warning also? Radar is loaded w precipitation.

[Niko]

Currently 24F w heavy snow. Awesome.

[jaster220]

No, still just a WWA for Marshall, and less than 1/2" here in St. Joe

 

My home county of Genesee upgraded as well

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
920 AM EST Mon Jan 29 2018

...WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN TODAY...

MIZ061-062-292130-
/O.UPG.KDTX.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-180129T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.WS.W.0001.180129T1420Z-180130T0000Z/
Genesee-Lapeer-
Including the cities of Flint and Lapeer
920 AM EST Mon Jan 29 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow occurring. Plan on difficult travel
conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are
expected, bringing storm total accumulations of 6 to 10 inches.

* WHERE...Genesee and Lapeer Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in
visibility at times. Significant travel delays can be expected
with snow covered roadways.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions are occurring. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency.

$

[Niko]

@ Niko

 

You're (we're) gettin a nice surprise system, eh? Looking good over your way? I already had some +SN recorded at the airport around 1 am (was asleep ofc), and I measured 1.7" about 6 am with my grid calling for up to 2 more during the daylight hours. We even got the GRR headline for Calhoun, so considering NOTHING was touted for this event all week, I have to consider it a pretty big win. I'll say this, Monday's have been gold this winter, lol 

 

 Not hard to take, especially with such a beautiful weekend too

 

20180129 GRR WWA.PNG

Indeed, after such a great, Springlike weekend, we get smashed w a snowstorm. The funny thing is that they were not calling for this to be a Winterstorm, just a few snowshowers. Surprises are up my alley, that's for sure.

[jaster220]

Currently 24F w heavy snow. Awesome.

 

SEMI snow magnet in full effect - daayaam! 

[jaster220]

:lol:....I just saw that. What the hell happened?! Outta nowhere, BAM! It is snowing like crazy out there. Winds are gusty as well.

 

Are you in a Warning also? Radar is loaded w precipitation.

 

      ..and I thought the era of last-minute surprise storms had totally passed..shows what I know 

[Tom]

Yes, I mentioned it in the SMI forum since you had made that post about it. Did you get anything from this at all? I thought the ICON looked good for ORD when you made that gif trend post? 

 

Meanwhile, some areas north of me a county or so already reported 3-5" by 3:30 am! Crazy sneaky system, and this SLP popped just perfect for SMI - go figure. I feel like I've been transported back to the 80's pre-model watching era..

 

20180129 4am ICast map.gif

Just a dusting my friend.  Congrats on the snow today!

[Niko]

Per TWC:

 

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT... HEAVY SNOW OCCURRING. PLAN ON DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, BRINGING STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES. * WHERE... SANILAC, ST. CLAIR, OAKLAND AND MACOMB COUNTIES. * WHEN... UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... BE PREPARED FOR SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT TIMES. SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL DELAYS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL, KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT, FOOD AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. More Information

... WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TODAY...

[Tom]

      ..and I thought the era of last-minute surprise storms had totally passed..shows what I know 

Yesterday, I was thinking this track will be a preview of what may be on the table next month.  Very tight temp gradient pattern and an active northern stream.

[Niko]

SEMI snow magnet in full effect - daayaam! 

This is the beauty of Winter surprises. Just splendid.

[Niko]

My temperatures stay frigid w more potential snow for Sunday. February will live up to its name.

 

The funny thing is that only a small portion of SEMI is highlighted in pink (indicating a WSW) :lol: . 

[Niko]

Per NOAA:

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather OutlookNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI933 AM EST Mon Jan 29 2018MIZ055-061>063-069-070-301445-Sanilac-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Oakland-Macomb-933 AM EST Mon Jan 29 2018This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeastMichigan..DAY ONE...Today and TonightWinter Storm Warnings are in effect through this evening for stormtotal snowfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches. Please consult thelatest winter weather headlines for additional information..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through SundayNo hazardous weather is expected at this time..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

[jaster220]

Just a dusting my friend.  Congrats on the snow today!

 

 Thanks, but it's bittersweet knowing how much you wanted some action. The parallels to last year are uncanny. And if they continue, ORD should be in line for at least one good event like last March. Hopefully this season turns a corner sooner and you get in the game before then as well 

[jaster220]

 

Per NOAA:

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather OutlookNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI933 AM EST Mon Jan 29 2018MIZ055-061>063-069-070-301445-Sanilac-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Oakland-Macomb-933 AM EST Mon Jan 29 2018This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeastMichigan..DAY ONE...Today and TonightWinter Storm Warnings are in effect through this evening for stormtotal snowfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches. Please consult thelatest winter weather headlines for additional information..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through SundayNo hazardous weather is expected at this time..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

 

A SEMI headline (aka-the rich get richer) 

[jaster220]

WWA extended 3 hrs til 4 pm

 

Looks like mby was just a county south of where that heave streak set-up

 

 

(when I was awoken by the sound of a plow blade scraping pavement, I knew that some decent snow must've fallen..)

[Niko]

A SEMI headline (aka-the rich get richer) 

[Niko]

Current obs are moderate snow and windy conditions w temps holding steady @ 26F. Blowing snow is also being reported.

[jaster220]

Daayaam!! 

 

It must've been rip-city overnight just NE of me..

 

000
NWUS53 KGRR 291611
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1111 AM EST MON JAN 29 2018

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM HEAVY SNOW 2 E HASLETT 42.75N 84.37W
01/29/2018 E10.0 INCH INGHAM MI PUBLIC

SEVERAL REPORTS FROM THE AREA OF 10 TO
POSSIBLY 12 INCHES. APPROXIMATELY A 12 HOUR
TOTAL.


&&

$

CAS

[jaster220]

Radar loop says it's over back home, yet the ASOS still reporting some snow at the airport, so Idk?

 

Regardless, this period of lower vis indicates that we indeed had another batch of nice returns move thru late morning time-frame:

 

[Niko]

This surprise snowstorm will last through all day until evening (7pm). Sweet!

[Niko]

Daayaam!! 

 

It must've been rip-city overnight just NE of me..

 

000

NWUS53 KGRR 291611

LSRGRR

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI

1111 AM EST MON JAN 29 2018

 

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

 

1100 AM HEAVY SNOW 2 E HASLETT 42.75N 84.37W

01/29/2018 E10.0 INCH INGHAM MI PUBLIC

 

SEVERAL REPORTS FROM THE AREA OF 10 TO

POSSIBLY 12 INCHES. APPROXIMATELY A 12 HOUR

TOTAL.

 

 

&&

 

$

 

CAS

[Tabitha]

I should not feel so bad; reviewing the cooperative data; the Pactola Dam in the Black Hills...a ordinarily extremely snowy locale...way up at 4725' above sea level...has amassed all of 4.3 inches of snow for January 2018...so I've got them beat (by 8/10ths of an inch).

 

The Dam is ahead of me on the season; 20.4" to 15.5"...so you can't have everything; now can you?

 

I went up to my friend's house on Christmas Eve and she had bare ground...at an elevation of 5280'.

 

Down at the Rapid City Airport; they are reporting 0.58 inches of precipitation the last 105 days / since the middle of October.

 

If you were to pro-rate that, you would be looking at less than 2 inches of precipitation for an entire year...close to the absolute driest places on the planet.

 

The (metaphorical) dam will break eventually...hopefully it will not be in May...when it is too late.

[jaster220]

 

I'm afraid that Western peeps hate our posts today..   But, they should look on the bright side, at least they didn't have to watch 150 model runs showing a pile of snow over SMI/SEMI like we do for the EC

[Tabitha]

The parsimonious 12z ECMWF tries to bring 4/10ths of an inch L.E. around here towards about Saturday (with considerable support from all other models)...so if it is cold; we might have a normal snowfall for once.

 

Still 120 hours out...

 

It also has a snow event on Day 7 and another one on Days 9 & 10...through 240 hours; it has 1.0 L.E. or more...which would be quite a bit of snow; as 20:1 is the worst ratio that I've seen around here.

 

Sometimes good winters start very badly...when I lived in the East...that happened with great frequency.  March and April are very good months for snow here, per the history books.

 

As recently as April 2013, down at the NWS WFO in the Rapid City, they measured 39.5 inches of snow for that month...and in May 2015 they measured 13.6 inches for the month...so there is still time to salvage the season.

 

It is not out of the question that we could catch up to some of the Michigan towns before the season reaches its end...

 

Always remember the Most Important Rule of Weather Prediction:

 

You can't fight climatology...

[Minny_Weather]

I'm afraid that Western peeps hate our posts today..   But, they look on the bright side, at least they didn't have to watch 150 model runs showing a pile of snow over SMI/SEMI like we do for the EC

Nah I don't mind it. I don't really mind it when people far from us get a good amount of snow, as long as models weren't showing it for us beforehand or anything.

[Tabitha]

Always remember the Most Important Rule of Weather Prediction:

 

You can't fight climatology...

 

Point being; if a place is snowy, it will find a way to snow...regardless of the pattern.

 

Conversely, if a place is not snowy, it will find a way not to snow, regardless of the pattern.

[Niko]

I'm afraid that Western peeps hate our posts today..   But, they look on the bright side, at least they didn't have to watch 150 model runs showing a pile of snow over SMI/SEMI like we do for the EC

[Niko]

Snow is lighten up a bit. Its beautiful out there. Current temp @ 22F.

 

@ Jaster: how much ya got there?

[NEJeremy]

Just checked out where we're standing for the month.

The first 6 days we were 16 degrees BELOW average with the extreme cold that we all remember I'm sure. 

Since that first 6 days, we've made up almost the entire deficit (now we're only -.6) and in fact have only had 5 days that were below average by at least 1 degree.

And at least at the airport, they've only had 3.3" of snow this month too.

[Niko]

Just finished cleaning up out there w my snowblower. Picked up more than 8 inches. Seemed more like 8.5 or so. I will try to post tomorrow a measurement. My foot was half way deep in, so, it was an impressive snowstorm.