January 2018 Observations and Discussions

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Its almost feb and were still at 5 inches. Times ticking away for a recovery

[bud2380]

very happy to see the GFS shows another strong storm in the 8-9 day time frame.  Also cutting directly through Iowa into Minnesota.  Although, the track is pretty worthless at this point until the more recent storm clears.  You'd like to think the track of snow left behind would shunt the baroclinic zone further south, but it may not matter.  Not sure how teleconnections look during this time?

 

[Andrew NE]

very happy to see the GFS shows another strong storm in the 8-9 day time frame. Also cutting directly through Iowa into Minnesota. Although, the track is pretty worthless at this point until the more recent storm clears. You'd like to think the track of snow left behind would shunt the baroclinic zone further south, but it may not matter. Not sure how teleconnections look during this time?

 

Yes it looks very active in the long range, most as rainers for us. As you stated still early.

[OKwx2k4]

Well, most of the entire gulf coast has recorded more snow than I have. So, if you're wondering why I'm quiet, that's why. Here's to February for me because it's not happening in this month.

[Tom]

Long range pattern is loaded with storms and more storms.  I think peeps out in NE and into the MN have a good chance at averaging near or BN after this storm passes late this weekend into the following week.  Anyone SE of this general area is suspect to stay AN given the storm track.  If we see hard cutters, then all bets are off and the Jan Thaw continues.  The next big ticket storm is trending towards another juiced up system.  Both GEFS/EPS showing a complex pattern for the following weekend system.

 

For Chicago, AN theme on the table unless things change by next weekend...

 

[Tom]

The Euro weeklies came in last night and they are heading towards the long standing ideas of a stormy finish to Jan and colder open to Feb which turns real cold mid Feb.  Last nights 00z EPS showing the NE PAC ridge blossom around the end of the month and eventually begins to spill arctic air into the central plains/Upper MW/MW by early Feb.  You can see the Euro Weeklies showing this trend towards a much colder look by early Feb.  

 

http://wx.graphics/models/eps/2018011800/noram/eps_t2ma_d5_noram_360.png

 

http://wx.graphics/models/eps/2018011800/noram/eps_t2ma_d5_noram_480.png

 

 

 

I mentioned before, watch for the cold to make another "push" by end of Jan due to the -WPO signal that I thought would be the driving force.  Low and behold, both the Euro/GFS op tank the WPO in the extended...

 

http://wx.graphics/models/oscillation/ecmwf_wpo_forecast.png

 

http://wx.graphics/models/oscillation/gfs_wpo_forecast.png

[westMJim]

Good morning from sunny but cool Florida. The current temperature here is reported at 51° with sunny skies.  Last night it was clear and cold while were we are (Cocoa Beach) it did not get below freezing as the wind came in off the ocean and kept the low in the upper 30’s inland and to the north the temperatures were in the low 30’s and upper 20’s

While there has been talk that this winter is much different than last winter well while so far this winter has been colder then last winter in the snow fall department Grand Rapids is still running below last winter at this point in the winter season. So far this winter Grand Rapids is at 44.2” and last winter at this point the total was 45.8”

Today we are going to the Kennedy Space center 

[Niko]

The Euro weeklies came in last night and they are heading towards the long standing ideas of a stormy finish to Jan and colder open to Feb which turns real cold mid Feb.  Last nights 00z EPS showing the NE PAC ridge blossom around the end of the month and eventually begins to spill arctic air into the central plains/Upper MW/MW by early Feb.  You can see the Euro Weeklies showing this trend towards a much colder look by early Feb.  

 

http://wx.graphics/models/eps/2018011800/noram/eps_t2ma_d5_noram_360.png

 

http://wx.graphics/models/eps/2018011800/noram/eps_t2ma_d5_noram_480.png

 

 

 

I mentioned before, watch for the cold to make another "push" by end of Jan due to the -WPO signal that I thought would be the driving force.  Low and behold, both the Euro/GFS op tank the WPO in the extended...

 

http://wx.graphics/models/oscillation/ecmwf_wpo_forecast.png

 

http://wx.graphics/models/oscillation/gfs_wpo_forecast.png

It gets colder,  but, seasonable levels. Nothing extreme down the road, in terms of snowfall goes, pretty much nothing ( from a southern system that is) unless something brews outta nowhere. Time is running out. Have to say, clippers were very good in my area thus far this Winter, but we need to get a southern system now, not in April. At least, one good one. Lets see what February delivas!

[Niko]

Currently, 25F w beautiful sunny skies and still snowcover around, but it will be fading away ova the weekend as rain moves in and milder temps to go along w that. That will feel refreshing!

[Snowlover76]

The Euro weeklies came in last night and they are heading towards the long standing ideas of a stormy finish to Jan and colder open to Feb which turns real cold mid Feb. Last nights 00z EPS showing the NE PAC ridge blossom around the end of the month and eventually begins to spill arctic air into the central plains/Upper MW/MW by early Feb. You can see the Euro Weeklies showing this trend towards a much colder look by early Feb.

 

http://wx.graphics/models/eps/2018011800/noram/eps_t2ma_d5_noram_360.png

 

http://wx.graphics/models/eps/2018011800/noram/eps_t2ma_d5_noram_480.png

 

 

 

I mentioned before, watch for the cold to make another "push" by end of Jan due to the -WPO signal that I thought would be the driving force. Low and behold, both the Euro/GFS op tank the WPO in the extended...

 

http://wx.graphics/models/oscillation/ecmwf_wpo_forecast.png

 

http://wx.graphics/models/oscillation/gfs_wpo_forecast.png

And I'll just assume that every single storm will find a way to **** Nebraska over

 

 

Wash rinse repeat. The beat goes on...

[Tom]

The system showing up the following weekend has similar characteristics of the previous storm last week (11th-13th) with a lead northern wave and somewhat of a secondary southern piece.  Last night's 00z GEFS show this...

 

 

Secondary piece looks to ride up the boundary up the Apps/OV into the GL's...this will obviously change but something I'm noticing.  The active pattern continues...beyond this time frame and into the early parts of Feb, my idea of  GHD storm are not that far fetched.  Plenty of storm chances folks, just let nature take its course.

 

 

[Tom]

At times, GFS in the long range provides "hints" of the pattern and scores a coupe.  My long standing ideas are not budging and the storm train is on schedule. Back to back weekend storms (this weekend and next) on the table and could there be a glorified GHD storm brewing???   I showed maps a few days ago that looked quite similar to the Jan 31st - Feb 2nd 2011 set up.  Fun times and NOT boring.  This ain't a bad pattern.  Carry on...have a great weekend!

[Minny_Weather]

We have a pretty solid cloud cover right now. With a North wind, I don't think we'll be rising our temp much more. 39.4°F.

[hlcater]

At times, GFS in the long range provides "hints" of the pattern and scores a coupe.  My long standing ideas are not budging and the storm train is on schedule. Back to back weekend storms (this weekend and next) on the table and could there be a glorified GHD storm brewing???   I showed maps a few days ago that looked quite similar to the Jan 31st - Feb 2nd 2011 set up.  Fun times and NOT boring.  This ain't a bad pattern.  Carry on...have a great weekend!

Active 100%, no doubt about it. The only thing missing is enough blocking to allow the storm track to wind up further south than it is now. At least, as somewhat of a consolation prize, we should largely make up on our QPF deficit we've been amounting since October. As I said, there's plenty of chances, although I feel like many will end up as hard cutters, cutting through IA/IL.

[East Dubzz]

Was only supposed to be a high of 40 today.

 

At the 11am update, it was already 42!

 

Looking at the weather, I may be able to get to the golf course by the end of the upcoming week! Woah!

[Tom]

Active 100%, no doubt about it. The only thing missing is enough blocking to allow the storm track to wind up further south than it is now. At least, as somewhat of a consolation prize, we should largely make up on our QPF deficit we've been amounting since October. As I said, there's plenty of chances, although I feel like many will end up as hard cutters, cutting through IA/IL.

The following weekend system is prob just as complex as the 11th-13th storm but during this period blocking does develop.  Expecting to see some wildly different solutions over the coming week.  I'm looking for a secondary piece to develop in future runs as this type of set up has happened several times already this season.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

 

 

PNA relaxes...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

 

 

-WPO is in the tank...

 

http://wx.graphics/models/oscillation/ecmwf_eps_wpo_2018012000.png

[gimmesnow]

The following weekend system is prob just as complex as the 11th-13th storm but during this period blocking does develop.  Expecting to see some wildly different solutions over the coming week.  I'm looking for a secondary piece to develop in future runs as this type of set up has happened several times already this season.

 

You think it's going to actually get cold enough? Looks like it's going to be warm, almost 50, in the extended by the time this next storm drops by.

[Tom]

You think it's going to actually get cold enough? Looks like it's going to be warm, almost 50, in the extended by the time this next storm drops by.

Look at today's 12z GFS/Euro runs and they both show the potential of a storm cutting up towards the GL's.  12z Euro with a major OV/Lower Lakes cutter with 1-2 Feet in IN/MI/NW OH...it's like the Euro just flashed what I had in mind..."tap into the universe and listen"...

[NEJeremy]

The long range/ short range models have all been sh*t this season it seems. We’re all basically running snow deficits this season. No epic winter or amazingly fast start has really materialized. Sure plenty of time for change or catch up but that always seems to be just around the corner. All one has to do is go back and read the pages on this forum. It seems like every next storm is the best chance yet for a share the wealth system and then when it comes time for that system and it’s weaker or cutting hard, than suddenly the story changes and it’s always well this wasn’t ever going to be that good, but the next one definitely has potential. Wash. Rinse. Repeat. The models keep showing promise but Mother Nature keeps saying, nope!

[Money]

Look at today's 12z GFS/Euro runs and they both show the potential of a storm cutting up towards the GL's.  12z Euro with a major OV/Lower Lakes cutter with 1-2 Feet in IN/MI/NW OH...it's like the Euro just flashed what I had in mind..."tap into the universe and listen"...

What time period is this? I don’t see any major storms on the euro

[Tom]

What time period is this? I don’t see any major storms on the euro

28th/29th

[hlcater]

What time period is this? I don’t see any major storms on the euro

check FH 234 if you want a major storm

[CentralNebWeather]

18Z GFS is a storm parade. Hope there is something for everyone on here during that time.

[hlcater]

18Z GFS is a storm parade. Hope there is something for everyone on here during that time.

One thing Tom has noted, actually since the end of last month, was that Jan 20 thru the end of the month was going to be active. Given multiple models showing multiple systems during this time frame, it looks like he'll be right. How favorable these storms actually are remains to be seen, but I expect areas further north and west to do better than those south and east. Surprising pattern consistency to say the least, especially at this range.

[Minny_Weather]

It looks like if we get any precip from next weekend's thing it'll be rain. I'll take rain. We don't need daily red flag warnings again like we had last Spring.

[GDR]

18Z GFS is a storm parade. Hope there is something for everyone on here during that time.

Looks like some good rainmakers for my area.

[hlcater]

Looks like some good rainmakers for my area.

Yup, but a rain maker is better than nothing if you ask me. Especially because we've amassed quite a deficit since october.

[Minny_Weather]

Yup, but a rain maker is better than nothing if you ask me. Especially because we've amassed quite a deficit since october.

Yeah I can do without the daily Red Flag Warnings in the Spring that results from a dry Winter.

[GDR]

Yeah winter can move on, give me warm temps and storms year round!

[bud2380]

Not a whole lot showing up in the long term. A weak warm progressive system for late this week into the weekend. The Euro does then latch onto a storm in the day 8-9 time frame. But it’s too Far East for most on here. It currently may just clip Chicago. Other than that, we got nothing.

[Tom]

Not a whole lot showing up in the long term. A weak warm progressive system for late this week into the weekend. The Euro does then latch onto a storm in the day 8-9 time frame. But it’s too Far East for most on here. It currently may just clip Chicago. Other than that, we got nothing.

Ya, the 00z Euro flashed another run showing a southern Low tracking up from the southern states towards the OV/Lower Lakes late next weekend.  Interestingly, 00z GEFS/EPS are starting to "see" this potential system.  I've seen this set up already several times this season and its part of the reason why I have been looking for the southern energy to develop on the models in future runs.  Patience will be required for this next system but I believe some members on here will score from this. 

 

BTW, 00z Euro control smashes E IA/N MO/W IL/S WI.  Don't discount this system as we are still about a week out.  Let's see how this one evolves over the next few days.

[Tom]

My goodness, I love what I'm seeing in the extended for what will be dubbed "The Ferocious February Open"...hype is for realz folks....giddy up!

 

[BrianJK]

Looks like a real nice taste of spring as we head into next weekend around these parts. 50s and SUN. No doubt you’ll see an uptick in joggers out there. As we are now 1 month past the winter solstice, sun is stronger and days are longer - hopefully a “fast and furious” start to spring is looming.

[FV-Mike]

My goodness, I love what I'm seeing in the extended for what will be dubbed "The Ferocious February Open"...hype is for realz folks....giddy up!

 

 

I am with you Tom, Like what I am seeing in the extended as well

[BLIZZARD09]

What is it that you guys  are seeing?

[jaster220]

Ya, the 00z Euro flashed another run showing a southern Low tracking up from the southern states towards the OV/Lower Lakes late next weekend. Interestingly, 00z GEFS/EPS are starting to "see" this potential system. I've seen this set up already several times this season and its part of the reason why I have been looking for the southern energy to develop on the models in future runs. Patience will be required for this next system but I believe some members on here will score from this.

 

BTW, 00z Euro control smashes E IA/N MO/W IL/S WI. Don't discount this system as we are still about a week out. Let's see how this one evolves over the next few days.

Euro cried wolf b4 and now the entire SMI crew will not entertain anything it flashes at such a range. As is common, while the west end of this massive sub is stormy, those in the east experience "bore me", lol. Let's see where this goes in about 5 days

[Tom]

What is it that you guys  are seeing?

Analyzing everything from: teleconnections, global op/ensemble runs, 500mb pattern Day 7-15, extreme temp gradient to open Feb, precip/temp anomalies Day 7-15...lots of stuff actually...

[OKwx2k4]

Gonna be a bumpy night here.

 

[GDR]

Man gfs looks boring for the next 16 days! When’s it going to be active again?

[Niko]

Man gfs looks boring for the next 16 days! When’s it going to be active again?

It might get cold again, but not looking too active. It is the coldest time of the year right now and SMI is getting rain and not snow. That's how bad the pattern is for my area and Jasters. This reminds me of last year in January and in February when we had rainstorm after rainstorm after rainstorm followed by frigid air. Oh, btw, another strong cutter next weekend.