January 2018 Observations and Discussions

[Tom]

Is there an opportunity for a Ground Hog's day storm somewhere across our sub forum???  I know its wayyy out there in fantasy land.  You don't need to remind me, but I love challenges and the 3rd storm, in a series of larger scale systems (IMO) may be developing across the SW/4 corners region to open up Feb.  Why you may ask???  Remember the Halloween system coming out of the SW that brought the first flakes in NE/KS???  This pattern is cycling and the 30-day harmonic is also cycling.  00z GEFS are "hinting" at this opportunity way out there in the future but don't be surprised if this does in fact develop.

 

[Tom]

Big changes in the 00z EPS and following GEFS lead tanking the WPO in the extended.  Watch for a cold finish to the month and the arctic air to begin to attack to open Feb.

 

http://wx.graphics/models/oscillation/ecmwf_eps_wpo_2018011700.png

 

 

 

Euro not to enthusiastic about amplifying MJO into warm phases...didn't I mention this was on the table???

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

[Clinton]

Is there an opportunity for a Ground Hog's day storm somewhere across our sub forum???  I know its wayyy out there in fantasy land.  You don't need to remind me, but I love challenges and the 3rd storm, in a series of larger scale systems (IMO) may be developing across the SW/4 corners region to open up Feb.  Why you may ask???  Remember the Halloween system coming out of the SW that brought the first flakes in NE/KS???  This pattern is cycling and the 30-day harmonic is also cycling.  00z GEFS are "hinting" at this opportunity way out there in the future but don't be surprised if this does in fact develop.

 

Using the LRC this system should be stronger than the system on the 26th.  The Halloween version of this brought the first snowflakes of the season to KC and with the snowpack I expect from this and the previous system I think the coldest air many of us have seen for the season could follow.

[Niko]

Currently @ 9F w cloudy skies. Snow has ended. Total snowfall was 4.4".

[gabel23]

Not sure if anyone saw or heard a loud noise, but a "Meteor Shower" visited the Detroit Metro area. I saw it. It was huge and had a bright light and then a loud bang. It happened around 8 to 810pm this evening. Amazing stuff!

 

https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/videos-bright-light-seen-loud-explosion-heard-in-metro-detroit

That was incredible!!! What was the sound like??? Louder than thunder? 

[Niko]

That was incredible!!! What was the sound like??? Louder than thunder? 

It sounded as if a bomb went off. Tbh, at the beginning I thought it was thundersnow, but when I saw the very bright light, I new right away it was a Meteor Shower" falling from the sky. It became daylight for a a couple of seconds. That is how bright this thing was.

[jaster220]

That was incredible!!! What was the sound like??? Louder than thunder? 

 

Good question, I didn't get any audio off those posted vid's either. Ofc, my wife's uncle was literally knocked off his feet by the shockwave from that meteor that fell in Chelyabinsk Russia back in Feb of 2013 

 

[jaster220]

Big changes in the 00z EPS and following GEFS lead tanking the WPO in the extended.  Watch for a cold finish to the month and the arctic air to begin to attack to open Feb.

 

http://wx.graphics/models/oscillation/ecmwf_eps_wpo_2018011700.png

 

 

 

Euro not to enthusiastic about amplifying MJO into warm phases...didn't I mention this was on the table???

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

 

Haha, I think WMJim's got the best idea - cruisin the Carribean! (a bit jealous tbh)

[jaster220]

Yet another sub-zero low overnight for Marshall (-5F), the fourth for Jan and ninth for the first 3rd of astro-winter! Crazy cold one it is! Haven't looked at it closely, but for home I think this may be pacing if not beating 2013-14 for number of days AOB freezing and certainly for below zero days, it's not even close! Also impressive (especially without a single warning level event) mby is already close to 75% season total snowfall. Again, with not even 1/3 of astro-winter under our belts. IF this follows the 81-82 play book for this region and we finally get into a favorable southern stream storm pattern like that season (end of Jan thru early Apr) this will most certainly go big for SMI

[Niko]

Yet another sub-zero low overnight for Marshall (-5F), the fourth for Jan and ninth for the first 3rd of astro-winter! Crazy cold one it is! Haven't looked at it closely, but for home I think this may be pacing if not beating 2013-14 for number of days AOB freezing and certainly for below zero days, it's not even close! Also impressive (especially without a single warning level event) mby is already close to 75% season total snowfall. Again, with not even 1/3 of astro-winter under our belts. IF this follows the 81-82 play book for this region and we finally get into a favorable southern stream storm pattern like that season (end of Jan thru early Apr) this will most certainly go big for SMI

Lets see! So far this Winter all we saw were strong clippers in our area, at least for my area. Not even one strong southern system. Time is running out Jaster. February is left. Lets see what happens.

[Niko]

Currently at 16F. Sun is making an appearance. Feels good to see some sunshine after a few cloudy days.

[jaster220]

Lets see! So far this Winter all we saw were strong clippers in our area, at least for my area. Not even one strong southern system. Time is running out Jaster. February is left. Lets see what happens.

 

SEMI saw lots of snow in March of '82 as well and that's what your TWC was saying right? Below normal temps = better chances of snowfall just need a favorable storm track and look out. We've not had a big March in forever around SMI. Before Feb became all the rage with GHD series of storms, March used to be the other BD month

[East Dubzz]

I hear birds chirping away outside. Does this mean winter is over?

[Minny_Weather]

The current temperature in one of the warmer places in Siberia (Amakinskiy) is currently -62*F. This is 46 degrees below average for this time of year there. I believe THIS is the cold airmass that will impact us around the end of the month going into Feburary. Elsewhere across Siberia, temps are as cold as around -90*F.

[Tom]

After the next big ticket storm in the extended (26th ish), we’ll have a reloading period of what I believe will be the start of an extreme Feb in terms of storms/clippers and brutal cold. Yes, I am hyping it up, as I’m a big believer in this month delivering some incredible winter weather. So far, end of Jan lining up pretty well where I thought we would be heading. Active pattern, finishing cold...let’s roll!

[CentralNebWeather]

After the next big ticket storm in the extended (26th ish), we’ll have a reloading period of what I believe will be the start of an extreme Feb in terms of storms/clippers and brutal cold. Yes, I am hyping it up, as I’m a big believer in this month delivering some incredible winter weather. So far, end of Jan lining up pretty well where I thought we would be heading. Active pattern, finishing cold...let’s roll!

Joe Bastardi has really been talking up Feb., March, and April as winter weather will continue late this year.

[Tom]

Joe Bastardi has really been talking up Feb., March, and April as winter weather will continue late this year.

I would not deny that assumption at all. Lots still on the table this year. Hope we all can cash in and make up on our snow deficits.

[jaster220]

The current temperature in one of the warmer places in Siberia (Amakinskiy) is currently -62*F. This is 46 degrees below average for this time of year there. I believe THIS is the cold airmass that will impact us around the end of the month going into Feburary. Elsewhere across Siberia, temps are as cold as around -90*F.

 

Uggh..hope not, but seeing how COLD is the only given this winter, the odds would agree with your post. Feb '78 was actually colder than Jan as well. FL will get it's 2nd Warning event, only it'll be Orlando this time, lol

[westMJim]

We are in Marianna Florida. The trip from Bowling Green took longer than normal. There were some heavy snow showers in Tennessee.  So that was kind of a slow go there was snow on the ground to just north of Birmingham. I thought we were thru all of the snow BUT south of Birmingham there were trucks going north with snow on them, Lots of snow. And then there was a convoy  of snow plows (yes snow plows)  and I knew that was not real good. Well before we got to Montgomery there was a good amount of snow on the ground I would say 3” or more and ICE on I 65. The came the notice that I 85 was closed in both directions. Well to make the story shorter there was ice in many spots (in the shade, underpasses and of course bridges) and did I mention while there was not much traffic what was on the road did not like to slow down for the ice and that meant cars and trucks on the side of the road (and yes I sled a few times) the temperature here in  Marianna Florida. is now just 26 with clear skies

[Tom]

We are in Marianna Florida. The trip from Bowling Green took longer than normal. There were some heavy snow showers in Tennessee. So that was kind of a slow go there was snow on the ground to just north of Birmingham. I thought we were thru all of the snow BUT south of Birmingham there were trucks going north with snow on them, Lots of snow. And then there was a convoy of snow plows (yes snow plows) and I knew that was not real good. Well before we got to Montgomery there was a good amount of snow on the ground I would say 3” or more and ICE on I 65. The came the notice that I 85 was closed in both directions. Well to make the story shorter there was ice in many spots (in the shade, underpasses and of course bridges) and did I mention while there was not much traffic what was on the road did not like to slow down for the ice and that meant cars and trucks on the side of the road (and yes I sled a few times) the temperature here in Marianna Florida. is now just 26 with clear skies

Glad you made it safely! Good luck on the rest of your trip....to MIA port I assume? Enjoy soaking up some rays and enjoy the tropical life.

[gosaints]

Glad you made it safely! Good luck on the rest of your trip....to MIA port I assume? Enjoy soaking up some rays and enjoy the tropical life.

Heading to AZ a month from now... Hoping the cfs drills the temp predictions.

[Niko]

What a beautiful sunny day it was today. Lots of sunshine and temps felt really balmy, considering it was in the 20s all day.

[Tom]

Heading to AZ a month from now... Hoping the cfs drills the temp predictions.

80’s and sunshine don’t sound to bad actually. You leaving mid/late month? Prob just in time to dip out of town before the PV makes a MN visit.

[gosaints]

80’s and sunshine don’t sound to bad actually. You leaving mid/late month? Prob just in time to dip out of town before the PV makes a MN visit.

Leaving Feb 17...

[Tom]

Leaving Feb 17...

Good timing...I’m prob heading there in March sometime

[Craig-OmahaWX]

All models have a second storm late next week.

[centralweather44]

All models have a second storm late next week.

 

All timing will change on that one, but they storm looks real warm, like low to mid 40’s. May end up being a rain maker around these parts but we will see if we can catch it as a nocturnal event.

[Tom]

Both the GEFS/EPS are now coming into focus of firing up the Aleutian low during the closing days of January which will lead us into an interesting open of Feb.  Before that happens, there is another system that has been on my calendar that will effect our sub forum which is trending towards another GL's cutter.  It's still too far out to pin down any details but a large scale system is on the table.  The active pattern to finish off January is looking ideal, esp for those who are in need of snow out west in the Plains/MW/Upper MW.  

 

As we close out January and head into the early days of Feb, the pattern begins to shift towards a colder pattern which lines up with the LRC.  The wave train IMO should continue at least through early Feb, but when the pattern shifts into NW Flow by mid month, then that's when the SW Flow gets shut for a bit unless we can see some PAC waves/Clippers develop.  In the meantime, this board should be quite active going forward.

[Tom]

Tonight's Euro/Canadian weeklies should provide some good clues as to where we are heading over the next 46 days.  For instance, the latest JMA weeklies showing classic LA Nina signature with a trough over the west and ridge in the East over the next 2 weeks but Weeks 3-4 it flips the N PAC pattern into the dominant cold pattern we have seen this season.

[Tom]

Snowfall deficits in NE/IA/MN will be turning around over the next 10 days.  Let's check back by the end of the month and see where we are.  Here is a snapshot of the current snowfall analysis.

 

http://wx.graphics/models/snow/mw/snow_ytd_mw.png

[westMJim]

It is off to a cold start here in northern Florida the reported temperature is 21° here. Looking out the window the sky is clear but there is no frost on the cars so either its very dry out or the wind held up.  Today we are visiting family in Tallahassee and then off to far SE Florida where It will be cool but much warmer then it has been so far.  I want to wash off my SUV today as it is covered in road salt and I can hardly see out the back window as the wiper has been frozen since we left home. One more note never make fun of the driving in the south in ice and snow storms the roads are NOT taken care of as well as they are (in Michigan) and I challenge anyone who thinks other wise to give it a try!

[Grizzcoat]

The guy filling in for Paul.P on Accuweather (last name Duffy I think) mentioned the lack of ice in both the Bering and Barents Sea and the consensus in the long range field is that this lack of ice tends to promote a ridge in the W and trough in E. He expects this pattern to re-establish itself end of month / early FEB and he also mentioned the SSW. Sounded rather confident on cold/snow returning big time after the thaw.

[Tom]

Fantasy land 00z GEFS paint a rather similar pattern...can anyone take a wild guess???  Feb 1-2, 2011 ring a bell at 500mb....????  Pattern recognition looks very similar to that year's analog.  Just saying...would like to see more HP bleed south into Dakota's...

 

 

 

 

 

[NEJeremy]

GFS has been pretty consistent with next weeks storm being a northern track with a lot of areas getting mainly rain.

[Minny_Weather]

GFS has been pretty consistent with next weeks storm being a northern track with a lot of areas getting mainly rain.

Yeah I noticed that too. Whatever, we need the moisture.

[Tony]

Looks like nothing but rain in the extended. Hopefully it will warm up and stay warm as this winter so far has sucked to say the least.

[jaster220]

The guy filling in for Paul.P on Accuweather (last name Duffy I think) mentioned the lack of ice in both the Bering and Barents Sea and the consensus in the long range field is that this lack of ice tends to promote a ridge in the W and trough in E. He expects this pattern to re-establish itself end of month / early FEB and he also mentioned the SSW. Sounded rather confident on cold/snow returning big time after the thaw.

 

COLD's a lock, as for snow? Tbd. We'll be getting past ideal LES conditions and the NW flow hasn't produced too much besides fluff clippers..

 

Looks like nothing but rain in the extended. Hopefully it will warm up and stay warm as this winter so far has sucked to say the least.

 

   Not reading the posts above, eh? 

[Niko]

Looking forward to some rain as it will wash away all of that salt on the roads. Major potholes here in SEMI. Construction workers will be very busy come Springtime. The 40s will feel very nice, indeed.

[Niko]

Currently @ 25F w beautiful sunny skies.

[Tony]

COLD's a lock, as for snow? Tbd. We'll be getting past ideal LES conditions and the NW flow hasn't produced too much besides fluff clippers..

 

 

   Not reading the posts above, eh? 

Nothing is a lock at this point