January 2018 Observations and Discussions

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Wow lol. came north a tad and stronger

 

 

 

 

[Money]

One 2nd I saw a money post on the Colorado low now it's gone. We are gonna need that high pressure to play ball.

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2018011500&fh=144&r=conus&dpdt=

 

I mean that looks pretty decent

 

Good sized ice storm here that run

[Minny_Weather]

GFS gives us a good hit 7 days out. Certainly nothing can go wrong.

 

Thankfully it will probably hit us cuz every met will be afraid to build it up due to PTSD from last week's "storm."

[CentralNebWeather]

Canadian and GFS look very similar next weekend.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

GFS gives us a good hit 7 days out. Certainly nothing can go wrong.

 

Thankfully it will probably hit us cuz every met will be afraid to build it up due to PTSD from last week's "storm."

This run is north of both of us with the significant stuff.

[Minny_Weather]

This run is north of both of us with the significant stuff.

Ah okay. I was a bit behind but it looked like it'd hit us better. Well I guess we're not in the worst spot 7 days out then! 

[Money]

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h&rh=2018011500&fh=174&r=us_mw&dpdt=

 

2 feet totals in MN

[gosaints]

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2018011500&fh=144&r=conus&dpdt=

 

I mean that looks pretty decent

 

Good sized ice storm here that run

Agree

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Ah okay. I was a bit behind but it looked like it'd hit us better. Well I guess we're not in the worst spot 7 days out then! 

It'll come south lol then form a second low to make our low weaker LOL

[Money]

Agree

Just need it to dig a little farther south but overall you can’t ask for a better setup 6 days out

[Minny_Weather]

It'll come south lol then form a second low to make our low weaker LOL

Actually in previous days models were looking at forming a secondary wave to the South of the first one. If that were to happen then we'd be screwed. Dakota special to the North and KC special to the South.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Oh great, I can feel myself mentally latching onto this storm now. It's gonna be a long wild week of crazy model runs jumping hundreds of miles with that snow band!

[Minny_Weather]

Okay I take back what I said earlier. I'd rather cannibalize my own foot than watch Northeast Nebraska get the good stuff again while we get backside snow. Thankfully it's 7 days out and right now the only options look to be both here and Northeast Nebraska get nothing, or we get the jackpot and Northeast Nebraska gets nothing. Just as long as the Northeastern part of the state gets nothing, I'm fine! Snow hogs.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

The ICON model is not nice to anyone here except Tabitha lol 

 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Okay I take back what I said earlier. I'd rather cannibalize my own foot than watch Northeast Nebraska get the good stuff again while we get backside snow. Thankfully it's 7 days out and right now the only options look to be both here and Northeast Nebraska get nothing, or we get the jackpot and Northeast Nebraska gets nothing. Just as long as the Northeastern part of the state gets nothing, I'm fine! Snow hogs.

I've seen plenty of GFS ensembles have the system going south of us as well. Some north, some middle some south.

[Money]

Okay I take back what I said earlier. I'd rather cannibalize my own foot than watch Northeast Nebraska get the good stuff again while we get backside snow. Thankfully it's 7 days out and right now the only options look to be both here and Northeast Nebraska get nothing, or we get the jackpot and Northeast Nebraska gets nothing. Just as long as the Northeastern part of the state gets nothing, I'm fine! Snow hogs.

There’s no such thing as snowhogs

[Minny_Weather]

FWIW, Euro control has a weenie band thru here.

[Minny_Weather]

There’s no such thing as snowhogs

Should have seen Northeast Nebraska last Winter. It's funny how a 2.5 hour drive means the difference between a well above average Winter and a near record low Winter.

[Minny_Weather]

I've seen plenty of GFS ensembles have the system going south of us as well. Some north, some middle some south.

Yeah ensembles are all over the place and really illustrate why locations really cannot be focused on right now. What we can do right now is watch this and be sure it doesn't turn into an anti-share the wealth like last week's did.

[Minny_Weather]

In more current news, it looks like our 2" snowpack survived the very short rise above freezing, and I can tell the cold front has passed because I can hear the wind shaking my windows, like it usually does when fronts pass. 28.2*F.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

FWIW, Euro control has a weenie band thru here.

12z? Post it please and thank you.

[Money]

Good cluster of gfs ensembles south

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2018011500&fh=168

[Craig-OmahaWX]

All the ensembles are way south of where the operational is. Infact, the GEFS mean has the heaviest going just south of OMAHA LOL. 

[james1976]

Gonna drive yourselves nuts every 6 hours. Just enjoy theres a storm to track.

[Minny_Weather]

All the ensembles are way south of where the operational is. Infact, the GEFS mean has the heaviest going just south of OMAHA LOL.

At the end of the day, the op is just another ensemble member when it comes to this system.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

At the end of the day, the op is just another ensemble member when it comes to this system.

True.

[hlcater]

Just gonna say take the Euro solutions with a grain of salt with this system, didn't do too hot with the last SW system.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

lol the euro was nuts. further south and with 40-50 MPH winds too. crazy

[Money]

Gfs back south

 

Digs it into OK and tracks through north central IL

[Clinton]

Maybe a little blocking will do all some good with this system.

[bud2380]

DVN seems pretty convinced the track on this one is mostly set. The Euro has come South a bit from previous runs but for it to hit eastern Iowa it has to come South a lot more yet. Considering the low is in central Iowa at hour 168 there are still a few model runs to go before I throw in the towel but it’s not looking good here.

[St Paul Storm]

DVN seems pretty convinced the track on this one is mostly set. The Euro has come South a bit from previous runs but for it to hit eastern Iowa it has to come South a lot more yet. Considering the low is in central Iowa at hour 168 there are still a few model runs to go before I throw in the towel but it’s not looking good here.

It’s 6 days out! You’re joking, right?

[Tom]

00z EPS members are north while GEFS are south...let the battle begin....00z EPS likes C NE all the way to MSP...

[Minny_Weather]

Still not in the bullseye? That's good. Still 6 days out. DVN is dumb for settling on a track now. Ensembles are all over the place.

[St Paul Storm]

00z EPS members are north while GEFS are south...let the battle begin....00z EPS likes C NE all the way to MSP...

Classic GFS vs foreign battle shaping up. I bet they all flip flop at least once this week.

[Tom]

Classic GFS vs foreign battle shaping up. I bet they all flip flop at least once this week.

Indeed, now I really wonder who wins this battle as the GFS won the last weeks system.  Other than that, mostly all of the GEFS/EPS members show a wound up storm so that is encouraging to see.  Fits the pattern, fits the cycle...another crazy week of tracking...

[Minny_Weather]

There's really nobody in this sub that doesn't have the opportunity to score big out of this. I hope it takes a Southerly track so it's share the wealth and most everybody on here scores big.

[Minny_Weather]

Grass is exposed & on some hills it's actually bare. 3.7*F wind a wind chill of about -16*F on my balcony.

[westMJim]

Here at my house I am now at 1” of new snow fall. Still getting light snow falling with a temperature of 15°.  We are leaving for Florida tomorrow and as luck would have it there is WSW’s and WWA and of course wind chill advisories all across the south. It now looks like I will be taking the (western) route down there as the snow looks to move east Tuesday and Wednesday.  On my (western) route there are no mountains But there will be snow on the ground well into Alabama

We are now half way thru January and at the half way point. The mean this January so far is 18.6° (-6.1) the average H/L is 26.9/10.3° there had been 6.7” of snow so far and for this winter season we are now at 40.4”

[westMJim]

Climatology for today January 15^th At Grand Rapids Mi

 

The average H/L for Grand Rapids is 31/18

The record high is 57° in 1949 the coldest maximum is -3° in 1972

The record low is -15° in 1972 and the warmest minimum is 41 in 1894

The largest snow fall is 5.8” in 1997

The most on the ground is 21” in 1972

Last year the H/L was 36/14 and there was no snow on the ground.