January 2018 Observations and Discussions

[Tabitha]

 How did NAM look?

 

Pretty good...they've come a long way since the war ended.

[Minny_Weather]

Been snowing here for several hours. Looks like more coming from the northwest. I am surprised to say the least.

Yeah, you stole it from us you thief.

[Tabitha]

Precipitation has moved back in; but now it is in the form of rain; (freezing rain, of course, as the temp is 23 F) but rain nonetheless.

 

A check of the current upper air chart shows that @ 925 mb SW SD is now above 0 C!  Perfect timing!

 

Misfortune...the kind of fortune that never misses!

 

It snowed from about 6 PM to 7 PM MDT...I would say another 1/10 of an inch or so. 

 

I'm not in a hurry to measure; anyway...I do not know too many people who were accused of over reporting when they reported 0.1".

[Tabitha]

It snowed from about 6 PM to 7 PM MDT...I would say another 1/10 of an inch or so. 

 

I'm not in a hurry to measure; anyway...I do not know too many people who were accused of over reporting when they reported 0.1".

 

I just noticed on my profile that I currently have 111 "likes"; my birthday is on 1/11; and at this moment I have 11.1" of snow on the season.

 

You can't make this stuff up...

 

Elton Musk (and a few others) have argued that life is nothing more than one big computer simulation that we are all trapped in...he might have a point.

[CentralNebWeather]

Yeah, you stole it from us you thief.

Sorry about that. The short term models have really struggled today. Our local forecast was basically flurries

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Nam and rap saying 1.5 inches. Ill take what i can get lol

[snowstorm83]

Snowing TINY wet flakes right now

[CentralNebWeather]

Heaviest snow of the evening now falling. Radar just keeps reloading to the northwest.

[Tom]

-46F in Embarrass, MN this morning...ouch!!! 

 

[Minny_Weather]

Even though the world's tiniest flakes are falling right now, I feel like we're in a good spot in Lincoln, the radar is building up in our favor pretty well. Right now, a dusting is on my "snowboard" a.k.a. car, 13.3*F.

[Tabitha]

-46F in Embarrass, MN this morning...ouch!!! 

 

Kabetogama General Store -37 F 0700 AM 1/13

 

I shop there often...

[Tabitha]

 Right now, a dusting is on my "snowboard" a.k.a. car, 13.3*F.

 

Make sure the engine is off...you wouldn't want any to melt.

 

Also, someone might get into it and drive away...

[Minny_Weather]

Snowing harder, flakes are way bigger. 13.5*.

[CentralNebWeather]

0z GFS and Canadian both showing a potential storm for the Central Plains next Saturday-Sunday time frame. Canadian looks like a Colorado Low. Time will tell if it materializes or not.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Snowing harder, flakes are way bigger. 13.5*.

Great. Will be here soon.

[CentralNebWeather]

0z GFS looks to get very active in the next week and beyond. I think this is what you have been talking about Tom.

[Tabitha]

If what the ECMWF had at 12z and what the GFS now has at 0z; where I am would be looking at 10 - 20 inches of wind driven heavy snow starting Friday afternoon; which would go a long way towards making up for the sub-par winter thus far.

 

Note that the 12z ECMWF had some spots in this area with 35 inches of snow on the ground by Day 8.

[bud2380]

I think the last 12 Colorado lows have tracked directly through Iowa. It definitely feels that way anyway. Looks like another one about to do the same. Why can’t a low track through St Louis anymore??

[Hawkeye]

I think the last 12 Colorado lows have tracked directly through Iowa. It definitely feels that way anyway. Looks like another one about to do the same. Why can’t a low track through St Louis anymore??

 

I don't have a great memory of past events, but it seems like there used to be plenty of systems that dropped a heavy snow band from the Texas Panhandle up through Iowa, but those type of systems have nearly gone extinct.

[Tabitha]

I think the last 12 Colorado lows have tracked directly through Iowa. It definitely feels that way anyway. Looks like another one about to do the same. Why can’t a low track through St Louis anymore??

 

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/weatherpapers/071/

 

During the dead of winter (January / early February) the odds are much higher for a suppressed track since climatologically the average position of the jet stream is as far south as it typically goes.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Another split pattern with it not all coming out as one storm. One storm goes north the next system goes south. Though I'm not buying a D**n thing any model says until like 2 days before the actual event

 

[Tom]

Another impressively cold morning today in the Chicago area with bare ground.  Incredibly, some spots have dipped below zero in the NW burbs while I'm sitting at +2F.  During the last cold spell, I saw city workers working on many pipes that burst throughout the city.  I'm sure these temps without any snow cover won't help.

 

Meanwhile, overnight trends in both GEFS/EPS still looking ideal for a very active/wintry storm track across our sub forum.  Still don't believe we have turned the corner???  I'm lead to believe that as we approach the mid point of met winter, the second half of this season will be remarkably different for snow enthusiasts.  It didn't quite start off as snowy as we would have liked (except for the LES belts and MI posters) but I'm convinced that this season will deliver the goods when all sudden done.  In a season where we have started with more misses than hits, the hits will start adding up.

 

Both GEFS/EPS have an ideal "look" of setting up High Pressure across Canada with a "Banana HP" across the northern tier of the lower 48 by late this week into the following week.  High lat blocking will be an important player along with a neutral EPO it will continue a wave train of PAC waves hitting the west coast.  I've also notice that the EPS is trending towards a neutral WPO which is suggesting to me the MJO may be trending towards more favorable phases (or even the null phase) for winter lovers.  Something to keep an eye on towards late this month.

 

As for the potential storm next weekend, various solutions still on the table and not discounting a stronger southern wave coming out of the southern plains which seemingly has been a trend this season.

[Minny_Weather]

That was a disappointment. 0.3"-0.5" depending on where I measured. I'm calling it 0.4". Bleh. 17.6*F. Let's hope cloud cover will keep temps down cuz fresh snow cover won't.

[Niko]

Per Noaa:

 

By next weekend, the upper level pattern will likely be undergoing a
major transformation as dominant upper troughing sets up over the
western CONUS as ridging translates eastward over the remainder of
the CONUS. In the immediate term, this would suggest a continued
moderation into next Sunday as a significant storm system ejects from
the western trough into the area. There is some suggestion that this
may become the dominant upper pattern for the rest of the month
which would bring a milder (and stormier) pattern to the region as
compared to our recent bouts of relatively persistent arctic air.

[Niko]

Current temp is 7F w sunshine.

[Minny_Weather]

OAX

 

 

 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

The gradual eastward development of a dampening mid-level ridge
into the Great Plains will support warming temperatures by mid to
late week. In fact, we could see above-normal highs by as early as
Thursday. 00z medium-range guidance continues to hint at a
potential storm system which could impact the region next weekend.
Stay tuned.

 

[Tabitha]

As of 7 AM; the greatest snow total in SE Nebraska was reported at Crete in Saline County (a short distance SW of the Greater Lincoln area); where 1.2" had accumulated.

 

Most snow totals were in the 1/2 inch range thus far.

 

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/COOP/current.phtml?sortcol=ts&wfo=OAX

[Andrew NE]

That was a disappointment. 0.3"-0.5" depending on where I measured. I'm calling it 0.4". Bleh. 17.6*F. Let's hope cloud cover will keep temps down cuz fresh snow cover won't.

We had maybe a 1/2" in OMA and that may be generous. You may have gotten to wrapped up in the RAP's unrealistic totals from this fast mover. It will all be gone by Thursday-Friday timeframe.

[Minny_Weather]

We had maybe a 1/2" in OMA and that may be generous. You may have gotten to wrapped up in the RAP's unrealistic totals from this fast mover. It will all be gone by Thursday-Friday timeframe.

No I was not wrapped up in the inflated totals. The end result is that we just flat out got screwed to Central Nebraska in the storm track. Those totals jogged West. Maybe a bit lower, but they were there. They got what NAM was showing for us, which is what I believed when I went to bed last night. This being fast-moving had nothing to do with that. Not a single model had us getting under 1.5".

[Tabitha]

Parts of Nebraska are having very good winters snow wise.  Scottsbluff (elev. 3967'); near the Wyoming border; has 21.5" on the season so far.

 

That's quite a bit more than I've seen...

 

It is also quite a bit more than Denver, CO (elev. 5280')...who has measured a mere 6.8" this winter.

 

Denver's average annual snowfall is about 5 feet (60")...though there is obviously great variability in that region with the mountains just to their west.  Since the Stapleton Airport shut down they may take measurements elsewhere nowadays.

[Minny_Weather]

Parts of Nebraska are having very good winters snow wise.  Scottsbluff (elev. 3967'); near the Wyoming border; has 21.5" on the season so far.

 

That's quite a bit more than I've seen...

Scottsbluff generally does quite well. I know they cashed in last Spring too with snowfall that stayed for a while.

[Tabitha]

Scottsbluff generally does quite well. I know they cashed in last Spring too with snowfall that stayed for a while.

 

The altitude is a big factor.  March & April are snowy there.  They average 13.7" of snow after March 1st.  They also average 9.0" before December 1st.

[Andrew NE]

No I was not wrapped up in the inflated totals. The end result is that we just flat out got screwed to Central Nebraska in the storm track. Those totals jogged West. Maybe a bit lower, but they were there. They got what NAM was showing for us, which is what I believed when I went to bed last night. This being fast-moving had nothing to do with that. Not a single model had us getting under 1.5".

Easy dude, I wasn't trying to call you out, I was just saying that 3"-4" that you were talking about were never in reach with this system that's all.

[Minny_Weather]

Easy dude, I wasn't trying to call you out, I was just saying that 3"-4" that you were talking about were never in reach with this system that's all.

Lol I wasn't saying that you were. But I didn't really think that was realistic anyway after I saw radar trends. Before the precip even popped up, anything was within reach.

[Minny_Weather]

Euro is literally the perfect scenario for everyone on the sub but us to see snow. Whatever, it's 7-8 days out and there's no ensemble agreement at all.

[gabel23]

As of 7 AM; the greatest snow total in SE Nebraska was reported at Crete in Saline County (a short distance SW of the Greater Lincoln area); where 1.2" had accumulated.

 

Most snow totals were in the 1/2 inch range thus far.

 

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/COOP/current.phtml?sortcol=ts&wfo=OAX

That’s an awesome website, never knew it existed! Thanks for sharing, what an awesome way of seeing local snow totals and depth. Now hopefully Mother Nature can deliver us a big one....

[Tabitha]

That’s an awesome website, never knew it existed! Thanks for sharing, what an awesome way of seeing local snow totals and depth. Now hopefully Mother Nature can deliver us a big one....

 

There is much good information there.  In fact; you can obtain every Public Information Statements from the various NWS offices regarding reported snow totals from the public since they began keeping them.

 

Here in the Dakotas, it is currently 37 F and my 1/2 of snow on the ground is slowly evaporating.

 

However all is not lost.  Some snow (possibly starting as rain or a mix) should move in by about 11 AM MDT and, with a little bit of luck, the ground may be covered with snow once more.

 

Yesterday I measured just 3/10ths of an inch of snow.  Even the NWS WFO in Rapid City did better; coming in with 1/2 an inch.

 

I'm not the biggest believer in "pattern changes"; but I do think that precip chances around here look a good deal better towards Friday and thereafter; as almost every model is showing a wetter pattern evolving.

 

They can't all be wrong, now can they?

[bud2380]

So the 12z GFs runs straight through STL. Just like I asked for. .

[Tom]

So the 12z GFs runs straight through STL. Just like I asked for. .

Nice changes and trending the way I’d imagine with focusing on the southern wave. Lead wave tracking across the Dakotas/Ontario is looking weaker. Euro ensembles and Euro Op have been indicating the southern piece will be the main show. That’s just my gut feeling ATM along with the LRC and amount of blocking during this period.

[hlcater]

Now THAT is what you call an Iowa special. Can’t remember how long it’s been since our last big snow system outta the SW. still 7 days to go yet :(