CentralNebWeather Posted January 8, 2018 Report Share Posted January 8, 2018 This warmer weather took a toll on my snow yesterday. Basically just piles and that in shaded areas is all that is left. Can't believe how fast it melted. If we don't replenish on Wed. night/Thursday, it won't get as cold as they predict. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 8, 2018 Report Share Posted January 8, 2018 Just finished cleaning up out there w my snowthrower. Looks awesome w tons of snowpiles. Easily in the 7-9" range. Temp @ 34F. The air temp feels very comfortable compare of what it has been lately. Actually feels mild out there. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 8, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2018 Quite the 48hr 500mb 12z GEFS trends across AK/NW NAMER in the extended... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 8, 2018 Report Share Posted January 8, 2018 Brian, if the GEFS are right, this call may not be that far fetched after all. There has been an increasing trend among both the GEFS/EPS ensembles for high lat blocking during the long awaited 17th-21st period. Last night's 00z GEFS knife down the cold across the Plains during this period and a very sharp temp gradient sets up from the SW up towards the GL's.Check out these maps below...they did NOT look like this several days ago...in fact, they have been steadily trending colder each run given the magnitude of the blocking. Very interesting. There will be some places on here who get buried over the next couple weeks. JB tweeted that he's been more or less ambushed by the Euro's output wrt the MJO phase(s), which now it has back-tracked on it's earlier insistance on a trot thru the warmer phases, and goes back to phase 2 COLD! Man, I posted on Amwx that this was a recurring theme in 13-14 winter and it might happen this time..well, looks like it wants to, eh? You've been the jack pot zone thus far, why not??? Good luck... Kudos buddy, I couldn't do your job - certain of it now Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 8, 2018 Report Share Posted January 8, 2018 Anyone want to start thread for clipper system that GFS has producing snow in SD, NE, MN and IA later this week? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 8, 2018 Report Share Posted January 8, 2018 Sure doesn't look like the warm up is happening next week based on those maps? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 8, 2018 Report Share Posted January 8, 2018 Per NOAA:A digging shortwave/cutoff low over the lower Mississippi Valley isstill progged to track up the Ohio Valley on Friday into Saturdayalong the baroclinic zone. As this shortwave rounds the longwavetrough, a surface low pressure system will develop and strengthen asit tracks northward along the Appalachians. The placement of thissystem will have a major impact on the conditions SE Michigan willsee late Friday into Saturday, with a more westward placementresulting in the potential for freezing rain and heavy snowfall. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 8, 2018 Report Share Posted January 8, 2018 Currently 37F w sunshine. Feels great outside. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 8, 2018 Report Share Posted January 8, 2018 A nice red sun set tonight. With today's sun the temperature jumped all the way up to 37° here and at least 36° at the airport. And while there is still a good snow pack now that looks to be most gone by late Thursday as temperatures may reach into the low 50's before tumbling over the weekend. The current temperature here is now 34° 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 8, 2018 Report Share Posted January 8, 2018 A nice red sun set tonight. With today's sun the temperature jumped all the way up to 37° here and at least 36° at the airport. And while there is still a good snow pack now that looks to be most gone by late Thursday as temperatures may reach into the low 50's before tumbling over the weekend. The current temperature here is now 34°I really don't think we will lose all our snowpack within one day. Yes, some will melt, but not all. I'd be shocked if that were to happened. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 8, 2018 Report Share Posted January 8, 2018 Gorgeous evening outside. Crystal clear skies w temps falling to a chilliii 19F for ova nite lows. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Huge Trough on the West Coast and Strong Ridge in the Northeast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 9, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 To keep things compartmentalized, I may start a thread this morning for the weekend storm threat for our lower lakes members and keep the central/northern plains winter storm thread separate. In the days ahead, I'm sure we will be talking about this storm threat and don't want to clog up the other storm thread. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 9, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Busts in the EPO by both the GEFS/EPS have trended into a much colder 6-10 day period. Here is a map from BAMWx showing the glaring warmth in the EPS Day 11-15 vs current 6-10 temp forecast...keep that in the back of your mind as I'm seeing the EPS trend more towards a neutral EPO in the current Day 11-15 outlook and a LOT more high lat blocking. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 What a difference Lake Michigan makes. So far this winter season Grand Rapids has recorded 39” of snow fall while on the other side of the Lake Milwaukee has only received 4.9” and Madison has only received 4.7” With the Lake now at around 25% ice covered the amount of lake effect will now be less going forward into late January and into February. So as more ice builds up on the lake we will have to depend more on system snows and believe it or not west Michigan is NOT in a ideal location for that type of snow.The temperature is already up to 28° here with clouds and blue sky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Climatology for today January 9th At Grand Rapids, MI The average H/L is 31/18The record high is 57° set in 1939 the coldest maximum is 8° in 1912The record low is -14° set in 1977 the warmest minimum is 40° in 1939The biggest snow fall is 8.0” in 1930The most on the ground is 17” in 1999Last year the High/Low was 27/14 1.7” of snow fell and there was 2” on the ground Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 9, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 New storm thread for weekend storm threat.... http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1713-112-113-glsov-potential-major-winter-storm/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Looks like the friday clipper dies before it gets to E IA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Brrr Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 DMX goin all out for the weekend: The cold conditions will then persist for much of the forecastperiod. Two other system are expected to impact Iowa, late Fridayand Friday night and another late Sunday and Sunday night. Bothsystems will have deep dendritic layers and strong forcing and beaccompanied by reinforcing pushes of Arctic air and gustynorthwest winds. These systems could have big travel impacts.Continue to monitor the forecast through this period for potentialimpacts. Very cold wind chills will also occur. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 ^wow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 Clipper system for Friday night came in pretty decent for couple inches on the 00z nam. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 GFS continues to show a decent clipper crossing the region Sunday night. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 10, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 Both GEFS/EPS starting to show more signs of the long anticipated storm system around the 21st. 00z EPS has noticeably trended cooler across NE and the Dakotas during this period. Where will this system track??? Still up in the air and I think some members on here will score some snow esp with a strong signal of a -AO during this period. Meantime, the run to run consistency of the clipper showing up on the GFS has my interest. It may lay down some widespread accumulating snowfall Sun-Tue period. Looks like a slow mover that may tap some lake moisture in WI/IL. Here are the 00z/06z GFS snowfall maps... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 With whatever we get tomorrow and Friday combined with the Nebraska signature early February storm (happened every year since idk how long), we should be able to get up to average. Still plenty of January left, and the entire months of b February and March. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 Climatology for today January 10th At Grand Rapids, MI The average High/Low is 31/18The record high is 57 in 1975 the coldest maximum is 5 in 1982The record low is -19° in 1942 the warmest minimum is 38 in 2000The largest snow fall is 5.2” in 1999The most on the ground is 17” in 1999Last year the H/L was 47/27° there was 1.3” of snow fall (Before day break) and the day started with 4” on the ground (see next post) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 On this date last year the day started with 4” of snow on the ground and the high here in Grand Rapids reached 47° this was the start of a pattern change that would last the rest of January and into February. The temperatures reached 61° in January and all the way up to 66° in February. As of this date last winter the seasonal snow fall at Grand Rapids had reached 45.7” . But for the period from January 10th to the end of February only 9.4” of snow fell. Note this season the total snow fall now stand at 39.2” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 Both GEFS/EPS starting to show more signs of the long anticipated storm system around the 21st. 00z EPS has noticeably trended cooler across NE and the Dakotas during this period. Where will this system track??? Still up in the air and I think some members on here will score some snow esp with a strong signal of a -AO during this period. Meantime, the run to run consistency of the clipper showing up on the GFS has my interest. It may lay down some widespread accumulating snowfall Sun-Tue period. Looks like a slow mover that may tap some lake moisture in WI/IL. Here are the 00z/06z GFS snowfall maps... Clippers, our daily bread this winter, lol.. looking sweet over your way tho - hope you get nailed in those blue shades! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 GFS kills the Friday clipper before it gets here. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 You guys have to remember that it is only Wednesday morning. We are still 2.5 days away. The offshore disturbance has not even made it onshore. You must not give up so easily. As I have said previously and will say it again, I am expecting changes right through Friday. Per NOAA: With suchan amplified upper level ridge over the Atlantic and Pacific energynot moving onshore to the Pacific Northwest until Thursday morning, sostill not totally willing to give up on a stronger/farther westsolution just yet.Btw: Near 55F tomorrow. I will definitely be outside to enjoy that glorious temp, hopefully, not too busy. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 Currently @ 24F w fog and mist in the air. Should top off into the balmy 40s today. It will feel great. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 10, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 You guys have to remember that it is only Wednesday morning. We are still 2.5 days away. The offshore disturbance has not even made it onshore. You must not give up so easily. As I have said previously and will say it again, I am expecting changes right through Friday. Per NOAA: With suchan amplified upper level ridge over the Atlantic and Pacific energynot moving onshore to the Pacific Northwest until Thursday morning, sostill not totally willing to give up on a stronger/farther westsolution just yet.Btw: Near 55F tomorrow. I will definitely be outside to enjoy that glorious temp, hopefully, not too busy. Your NOAA office sounds like a bunch of snow weenies...LOL... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 Your NOAA office sounds like a bunch of snow weenies...LOL...Why because they are stated a fact. Dont think so!!! We still have plenty of time for changes. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 Somebody could crack 60F tomorrow. Looking forward to that. Hopefully, we can get some sunshine. Some snows will be melting, thank goodness. Great time to clean up the streets and get rid of the salt. Some rain should fall and help clean out the salt. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 10, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 Why because they are stated a fact. Dont think so!!! We still have plenty of time for changes. DTX is the least snow weenie of the MI offices imho. To be fair, at least a few of their southern counties would be back in the game with a NW jog, so it's reasonable that they'd at least mention it. For mby tho, after 50's Thur --> to 4 deg's Sat night I'll be looking at rock hard icebergs where snow piles used to be..was a nice ~18 day run of snowcover and winter conditions. Gotta go back to Feb/early March of '15 to find similar. Had tentative skiing plans for the weekend, but slopes will re-freeze into bad ice, so no dice. Guess I'll dust off the bowling shoes, lol 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 GFS with a decent clipper over a large swath Sunday night into Monday AM http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018011012/120/snku_024h.us_mw.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 DTX is the least snow weenie of the MI offices imho. To be fair, at least a few of their southern counties would be back in the game with a NW jog, so it's reasonable that they'd at least mention it. For mby tho, after 50's Thur --> to 4 deg's Sat night I'll be looking at rock hard icebergs where snow piles used to be..was a nice ~18 day run of snowcover and winter conditions. Gotta go back to Feb/early March of '15 to find similar. Had tentative skiing plans for the weekend, but slopes will re-freeze into bad ice, so no dice. Guess I'll dust off the bowling shoes, lolAgree 100%. Btw: cant believe how warm it will get tomorrow. Someone has a shot at 60F. A lot of my snowpack will take a beating. Bowling vs Skiing this weekend. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 Running ♀ out of time... Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 10, 2018 Report Share Posted January 10, 2018 Cant believe how icy the roads are out there. I was having hot chocolate w a CEO at Starbucks earlier today and the streets were like a skating rink. Still holding @ 32F w freezing drizzle. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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