January 2018 Observations and Discussions

[bud2380]

Well you know what they say. Always best to be in the bullseye 168 hours out.... wait...

[Tabitha]

Canadian jogged 200 miles NW with the Friday - Saturday system from 0z to 12z

 

GFS went the exact opposite way.

 

Lol.

[NEJeremy]

[Tabitha]

Canadian jogged 200 miles NW with the Friday - Saturday system from 0z to 12z

 

GFS went the exact opposite way.

 

Lol.

 

Just the fact that the GFS can shift 500 miles within 12 hours should tell everyone how ABSOLUTELY HORRIBLE that model is.

 

It is not called the Good for Sh*t model for nothing.

[Tabitha]

Just the fact that the GFS can shift 500 miles within 12 hours should tell everyone how ABSOLUTELY HORRIBLE that model is.

 

It is not called the Good for Sh*t model for nothing.

 

Thus my advice is to use the ECMWF in the mid-range and the HRDPS / RGEM-LAM in the short range...and maybe the NAM as a second choice; but only inside 36 hours.

[Tom]

Thus my advice is to use the ECMWF in the mid-range and the HRDPS / RGEM-LAM in the short range...and maybe the NAM as a second choice; but only inside 36 hours.

With that being said, seeing both GFS/EURO agreeing on a lower Lakes cutter this far out is intriguing.

[james1976]

Nice gfs run but 7 days out is too bad. Its gonna bounce around all week.

[Tabitha]

With that being said, seeing both GFS/EURO agreeing on a lower Lakes cutter this far out is intriguing.

 

Lets see what the ECMWF comes out with in an hour...at this point, it is anyone's guess.

 

As for the present; snow (or a mix of rain & snow) is poised just to my north and should be here within the hour.

 

Expecting my best snow event of the month!

 

Of course that is not aiming too terribly high; since the first 13 days of January have produced just 7/10ths of an inch of snow...

 

Hoping to double my money...

[Tom]

Lets see what the ECMWF comes out with in an hour...at this point, it is anyone's guess.

 

As for the present; snow (or a mix of rain & snow) is poised just to my north and should be here within the hour.

 

Expecting my best snow event of the month!

 

Of course that is not aiming too terribly high; since the first 13 days of January have produced just 7/10ths of an inch of snow...

 

Hoping to double my money...

True, there will be many solutions at this range but this is the first time this season I've seen the Euro at this range "see" a potential system in back to back runs.  It brings me back to a comment that Bud posted last week I believe it was where he mentioned the lack of any model consistency in the medium range among the models.  Maybe the blocking is helping the models "see" the energy better?  Who knows but its something that has my attention going forward.

[Minny_Weather]

I'm happy we're not in the bullseye for either wave so far lol. 7 days out and being out of the storm track(s) doesn't hurt.

[Tabitha]

True, there will be many solutions at this range but this is the first time this season I've seen the Euro at this range "see" a potential system in back to back runs.  It brings me back to a comment that Bud posted last week I believe it was where he mentioned the lack of any model consistency in the medium range among the models.  Maybe the blocking is helping the models "see" the energy better?  Who knows but its something that has my attention going forward.

 

I hope you get your snow today.  Illinois & Wisconsin have been experiencing a similar snow deficiency as areas around here.  Wisconsin especially; with Milwaukee & Madison still

[Tom]

I hope you get your snow today.  Illinois & Wisconsin have been experiencing a similar snow deficiency as areas around here.  Wisconsin especially; with Milwaukee & Madison still

Thanks...believe me, I'm going to soak it all in...

Meantime, shifts in the 12z GEFS with the southern piece...this will take a few days to try and figure out...

 

 

 

 

 

After that, the model gets confused...

 

[Money]

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2018011412&fh=240&r=us_mw&dpdt=

 

K

[Tabitha]

Lets see what the ECMWF comes out with in an hour...at this point, it is anyone's guess.

 

As for the present; snow (or a mix of rain & snow) is poised just to my north and should be here within the hour.

 

Expecting my best snow event of the month!

 

Of course that is not aiming too terribly high; since the first 13 days of January have produced just 7/10ths of an inch of snow...

 

Hoping to double my money...

 

I just looked at the 925 mb map and it showed temperatures above 0 C here until after 3 PM; causing concern..

 

Then, my sanity returned (albeit briefly) and recalled that 925 mb temps are irrelevant here; since 925 mb level is about 2500' up.

 

Lol.

[Money]

Euro completely different than gfs through 120

 

No sign of any HP in Canada on the euro

[westMJim]

There are reports that over 4” of snow fell at the lake about 15 miles to the west of me. Here at my house just a trace fell. As for tonight and tomorrow GRR is not all that hyped up with maybe a 2 or 3” event. With a E to SE wind the other side of the lake should do better. We will be leaving for Florida on Tuesday so I have been keeping a eye on the weather heading south. It looks like trip down will be a cold one with a chance of some snow on either of the two routes that I use. ( US 32 to I 65 to US 231 to I 10) I call that the west way or ( US 131 to I 94 to US 33 to I 77 to I 26 to I 95) I call that the east route. At this time it is partly cloudy here with a temperature of 18°

[westMJim]

Climatology for today January 14^th      At Grand Rapids, MI

The average H/L is 31/18

The record high is 53° in 1928 the coldest maximum is 7 in  1929

The record low is -13° set in 2015 the warmest minimum is 44 in 1929

The most snow fall is 7.2” in 1963

The most on the ground is 22” in 1979

Last year the H/L was 31/18 and there was no snow on the ground.

[Money]

At hr 144 euro has a strong Colorado low but also has a very strong system in southern Canada (sub 985)

[GDR]

[GDR]

-110% that doesn’t verify!!

[Money]

In terms of the low positioning at 168 euro and gfs are nearly identical

 

But up in Canada? Not so much

[bud2380]

Euro came further south than previous runs.  Still gives Minnesota and northern Wisconsin the best snow, but from my perspective, seems to be a step in the right direction.  

[jaster220]

-46F in Embarrass, MN this morning...ouch!!! 

 

What an ice box! What a name! Can I pass on both, lol?

[Money]

Euro came further south than previous runs.  Still gives Minnesota and northern Wisconsin the best snow, but from my perspective, seems to be a step in the right direction.

 

Definitely.

 

Just need a weaker northern stream like gfs is showing and get some blocking

[Tom]

Euro MJO going into Null Phases in the extended...will come out in the cold phases to open Feb???  LRC says yes...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

[Niko]

Cloudy and a temp of 15F.

[Money]

18z still has a good cutter for next weekend. Much stronger with northern stream system but it digs it far enough south where it still doesn’t matter

[Craig-OmahaWX]

And an active long range as well

[Minny_Weather]

We all know what happens when 18z GFS fantasy range shows a 4-day long storm here!

 

Yup, it happens!

[GDR]

[Minny_Weather]

90DD3C06-CE49-46A7-8AAE-44112686190D.png

Better start a thread.

[Madtown]

yeah just lock that in...lol

[Minny_Weather]

GEFS has two primary tracks for next week's storm now. Perfect track for us then around snow starved areas like Chicago or S WI, or perfect track for a Dakota special then Northwoods hit. 

 

One member has a KC special, and 2 members have half-assed "storms".

[Minny_Weather]

Is Tom one of the mets at the Hastings office now? 

 

 

 

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Went with CONSshort for lows tonight/highs Monday, with highs in
the single digits and teens for Monday and Tuesday with a modest
warmup in store as the week further progresses and the upper ridge
edges east. We have another shot at Rain/Snow over the weekend
in advance of yet another amplified longwave trough approaching,
which will introduce yet another shot of cold air toward the very
end of the long term and beyond. We cannot seem to break this
persistent cold pattern as fast as we had once thought it would.

 

[Minny_Weather]

GEFS has two primary tracks for next week's storm now. Perfect track for us then around snow starved areas like Chicago or S WI, or perfect track for a Dakota special then Northwoods hit. 

 

One member has a KC special, and 2 members have half-assed "storms".

EPS is mostly the same. Except more members take the Dakotas track with snow & the means are generally weaker.

[Niko]

Cloudy and quite cold w a reading of 12F.

[gosaints]

Money post disapeared

[Money]

Money post disapeared

What you talking about

[bud2380]

Well GFs back to its track through Iowa again. Easy come. Easy go.

[gosaints]

What you talking about

One 2nd I saw a money post on the Colorado low now it's gone. We are gonna need that high pressure to play ball.