January 2018 Observations and Discussions

[Niko]

Currently 44F w moderate rain. It gets colder by tomorrow night but, it warms up nicely by the weekend w temps possibly approaching near 50F w more rain chances. Time is running out folks!

[Tony]

We might have a couple of chances in February but January is done with any measureable snow.

[Hawkeye]

I did get a bit of thunder late overnight, along with a brief but very heavy downpour.  I've picked up about 0.60" of rain, on the low end of what was expected.  Once the dry slot moves in, shortly, we'll pretty much be done with this system.  I'm still hoping we can surge to 50 degrees around midday.

 

Some spots really cashed in overnight.  Waterloo/Cedar Falls received 1.5-2 inches of rain.

 

Last night, a couple models were hinting there may be a rainfall screw-band from southeast to far east-central Iowa, and that is what happened.  The Quad Cities haven't received much, and zero rain has fallen just south of Iowa City.

[Hawkeye]

We might have a couple of chances in February but January is done with any measureable snow.

 

It appears I will finish January with only 2.9" of snow.  I'll head into February with only 10.8" for the season, even less than last year.

[GDR]

I’m under 5 here

[Hawkeye]

The storm thread had a request for January temp departure.

 

The blues and purples will continue to disappear through the end of the month.  We have a shot at 50 three times during the period.

 

[Snowlover76]

Is there anything on the horizon?

[Minny_Weather]

Is there anything on the horizon?

No.

[Snowlover76]

No.

Bleh.

 

Maybe march will deliver.

[CentralNebWeather]

Joe Bastardi really pushing a cold February. Just don’t see much on the horizon as far as storms to go with it. Euro and CMC are very poor and GFS has their classic 300 plus hour storms.

[Tabitha]

Joe Bastardi really pushing a cold February.

 

If he pushed for a warm February; his subscriber base would correspondingly diminish...and all associated revenues therein.

 

Nothing in this universe is peddled more assiduously than Hope.

 

Money makes the world go round!

[gimmesnow]

If he pushed for a warm February; his subscriber base would correspondingly diminish...and all associated revenues therein.

 

Nothing in this universe is peddled more assiduously than Hope.

 

Money makes the world go round!

These last two years, once that crappy pattern is locked in, it's done. And it always seems like winter falls apart after one or two decent rains with warmth. The rest of winter for most of us is pretty obvious. A few rainers, warmer than normal with a cold snap, and one decent storm around 6in of snow that lasts for a week or so tops. I hate to be overly negative, but I don't recall winters ever changing from bad to good this late in the game.

 

Looking at Madison climatology office records, http://www.aos.wisc.edu/~sco/clim-history/7cities/madison.html#Snow, this year is toast, next year might be too. We had a snow drought from 2001 to 2004, 4 winters. That seems to be the biggest one. I don't think it can get much worse than that. Looking at records, this seems like the worst winter for snowfall since 1981 records where they started keeping track per day.

[Tabitha]

These last two years, once that crappy pattern is locked in, it's done. And it always seems like winter falls apart after one or two decent rains with warmth. The rest of winter for most of us is pretty obvious. A few rainers, warmer than normal with a cold snap, and one decent storm around 6in of snow that lasts for a week or so tops. I hate to be overly negative, but I don't recall winters ever changing from bad to good this late in the game.

 

Looking at Madison climatology office records, http://www.aos.wisc.edu/~sco/clim-history/7cities/madison.html#Snow, this year is toast, next year might be too. We had a snow drought from 2001 to 2004, 4 winters. That seems to be the biggest one. I don't think it can get much worse than that. Looking at records, this seems like the worst winter for snowfall since 1981 records where they started keeping track per day.

 

Madison is in sort of an odd place...can't benefit from the Great Lakes and is sometimes too far east to benefit from those storms that track as the one today has.

 

So I suppose clippers coming down from Canada make up a good portion of the annual snowfall..

[East Dubzz]

Got up to 55 here in the quad cities today per my thermometer. Still sitting at 41.

 

Looking forward to the nice weather at the end of the week.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Well...whats next? lol

[Minny_Weather]

Well...whats next? lol

10 days at least!

[Andrew NE]

Well...whats next? lol

I'll give you credit. Good call on the SE shift Craig, just wish it would have been another 30-40 miles and all of OMA would have been golden.

[Tabitha]

I'll give you credit. Good call on the SE shift Craig, just wish it would have been another 30-40 miles and all of OMA would have been golden.

 

I think the major shifts (more than 100 miles north or south) are now over and what the 12z European showed will be fairly close to the final outcome (again, within 100 miles either way).

 

The blizzard track from NE Nebraska through SE SD (including Sioux Falls)...up through Minneapolis...then the Arrowhead of Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and, of course the UP of Michigan has considerable historical climatological precedent...as many, many storms have taken that path.

 

It is still possible that Lincoln, Omaha and, to a lesser extent, Des Moines could fall under the heavy snow band...but I would not expect anything south and east of there.

 

I wouldn't say he was "right"...it did shift marginally south from some of the most extreme solutions; but what I wrote and is quoted above from 6 days ago basically came to pass.

[Tabitha]

Parts of Montana, Saskatchewan, and South Dakota have bare ground this evening....pretty unusual for 22 January.

 

Even snowy Lead, SD had a snow depth of a mere three inches as of this afternoon. 

 

A very bad drought persists in the western Dakotas.

 

I thought a La Nina would be wet for this area; but I thought wrong.

[Minny_Weather]

So... Now that there's nothing close to track and we're expecting mild temperatures... Am I supposed to, like, have a life or something?

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Uh oh! LOL.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

In other news, a massive 8.2 earthquake in Alaska has sparked a Tsunami alert for the west coast of N.A.

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/tsunami-alert-issued-after-gulf-alaska-earthquake-n840111

 

 

[Tom]

For those of you who are snow starved (esp myself), the data and information I'm starting to see as we close out this month and head into February is about as good as it gets thus far this season.  There is a lot I want to dive into this morning but I want to first talk about the potential for the late weekend set up which was looking good a couple days ago, however, since then it has turned a bit more complicated.  Last nights 00z Euro has a secondary wave develop along the frontal boundary farther east and targets OH/PA/WV.  Unfortunately, it's not looking that good ATM for anyone across the lower lakes.  We'll have to see how this wave develops as there is some ensemble support.

 

As we close out Jan, the reloading period commences and the idea of a stormy period Jan 31st-Feb 2nd/3rd, which, ironically, is the same period GHD-1 evolved.  I showed maps a few days ago of an eerily similar GEFS 500mb pattern and it's still hinting at this idea.  Check out last nights 00z GEFS 500mb pattern on Feb 2nd...

 

 

 

 

 

Now look at this archived map on Feb 1st, 2011....Several features to point out: 1) Ridge off west coast  2) Massive Bearing Sea/AK ridge  3) Polar Vortex north of Hudson Bay  4) SE Ridge  5) Trough over central CONUS......now, you can draw your own conclusions and compare both of these maps.  Can you imagine if something similar developed during this period give or take a day or two???  That would be amazing.

 

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/180123114843.gif

[Tom]

At the tail end of this month, a classic Split Flow pattern evolves in the E PAC, all, awhile, an atmospheric river across the W PAC coming off of the Asian continent should deliver a remarkably active jet stream pattern. This configuration across the Pacific is about as good as it gets to deliver sustained cold and systems across our sub forum. Who and where these pacific waves track is impossible to say specifically. I will say, without any doubts, that the opening week of February will be the ferocious start I’m all in on if your a fan of Winter. Hope everyone can score some snow before the cold settles back in for quite some time.

[Tom]

Notice the beginning of the SSW event across Siberia in this 10mb animation...centered over the coldest air across the Northern Hemisphere...guess where this air mass will go???

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif

 

It's also warming at 30mb...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

[jaster220]

Joe Bastardi really pushing a cold February. Just don’t see much on the horizon as far as storms to go with it. Euro and CMC are very poor and GFS has their classic 300 plus hour storms.

 

Thus see the late Aug/early Sept cold wave, and/or Nov's cold, and/or the late Dec/early Jan cold. If there's an LRC pattern this is a key feature of this winter. #LAME!

 

The storm thread had a request for January temp departure.

 

The blues and purples will continue to disappear through the end of the month.  We have a shot at 50 three times during the period.

 

 

See above - hate bipolar whether it's the weather or the peeps

[Tom]

Post Blizzard foot print is well established from CO up towards the W GL's...the jackpot zone looks to be S/C MN....

 

Edit: The snow holes in the northern plains and Saskatchewan will get filled in by next week...

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201801/nsm_depth_2018012305_National.jpg

[NEJeremy]

Looks like the next big storm that was supposed to hit somewhere in this forum around the 26-27th, that was talked about mid month, is turning into a big dry nothing burger with the main piece of energy staying way up in Canada. Maybe some light rain in the eastern Great Lakes. GFS has another storm after that around the 31st that also stays way north and tracks across Canada. That storm is also mainly dry until the Great Lakes where it has some light rain. This storm pulls down some cold air though and the storm track moves back south at that point in the first week of February. Looks like January will end pretty dry especially out this way and we'll have a good chance to eat into those below normal averages for the month.

[Niko]

Looks like the next big storm that was supposed to hit somewhere in this forum around the 26-27th, that was talked about mid month, is turning into a big dry nothing burger with the main piece of energy staying way up in Canada. Maybe some light rain in the eastern Great Lakes. GFS has another storm after that around the 31st that also stays way north and tracks across Canada. That storm is also mainly dry until the Great Lakes where it has some light rain. This storm pulls down some cold air though and the storm track moves back south at that point in the first week of February. Looks like January will end pretty dry especially out this way and we'll have a good chance to eat into those below normal averages for the month.

February is not looking all that good either in terms of big dogs. Hopefully, it changes down the road. Maybe we get a small system here and there, but nothing huge. After that, its March and around mid March, Spring mode hits.

[Niko]

Currently 40F w cloudy skies. Feels nice outside.

[NEJeremy]

February is not looking all that good either in terms of big dogs. Hopefully, it changes down the road. Maybe we get a small system here and there, but nothing huge. After that, its March and around mid March, Spring mode hits.

Oh yeah, I am definitely in spring mode by mid March. I'm watching the models everyday looking for that first potential storm chase!

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z GFS, CMC and last night's Euro all showing some type of storm or storminess around the 31st - Feb. 1.  Long ways in the future and I am sure much will change, disappear.  Just don't see much for the rest of this week and weekend into early next week.

[Minny_Weather]

12Z GFS, CMC and last night's Euro all showing some type of storm or storminess around the 31st - Feb. 1. Long ways in the future and I am sure much will change, disappear. Just don't see much for the rest of this week and weekend into early next week.

I'm thinking the pattern is good for this scenario:

 

7 days out: GFS shows a storm taking a good track to hit Southeast Nebraska and most of Iowa, including Cedar Rapids. Snowlover76 says the models are showing no snow.

 

5 days out: Storm cuts, hits most of Eastern Nebraska but looks like an MSP special now. NWLinn goes on suicide watch.

 

3 days out, NAM range: NAM begins a sharp northern trend. Craig says he's expecting a Southeast trend now. Begins looking like we'll see a Dakotas special. Jeremy goes to his parents house.

 

24 hours out: Southeast trend begins. Covers most of Eastern Nebraska again. Jeremy's parents look out of the equation.

 

12 hours out: HRRR clobbers everyone in Nebraska besides around Falls City. 8" amounts are widespread and still snowing. However, there is a sharp cutoff on both sides.

 

Radar trends begin to show a monster dry slot, as well as thin banding. This thin band only hits Norfolk and gosaints. It turns out that thin band is the storm. Complaints thread is used by non-Nebraska posters, a rarity. Money tells nebraskans to stop complaining in there, despite Iowans and Minnesotans also complaining. Tabitha writes a poem about death. Snowlover76 says that he was right and that delusional sunshine pumpers should stop expecting snow here.

[Niko]

Oh yeah, I am definitely in spring mode by mid March. I'm watching the models everyday looking for that first potential storm chase!

Sounds like fun to me.....and tbh, I am looking forward to severe weather come Springtime. It seems like its been ages since we had severe t'stms.

[Jaycee]

Sounds like fun to me.....and tbh, I am looking forward to severe weather come Springtime. It seems like its been ages since we had severe t'stms.

I hope we can keep this forum active for severe wx season. I love it more than anything, and would really like to see this place light up.

[Minny_Weather]

I hope we can keep this forum active for severe wx season. I love it more than anything, and would really like to see this place light up.

Yeah it's disappointing how this sub really dies after Winter. I'll be on more during the Summer at least now that I'm here in Lincoln year-round now.

[Tony]

I know I am grasping for straws right now but Euro shows a small wave of snow on Sunday with some backend LES wrt that storm on the EC

[jaster220]

I know I am grasping for straws right now but Euro shows a small wave of snow on Sunday with some backend LES wrt that storm on the EC

 

I've heard grasping at straws is best done blindfolded 

[NEJeremy]

I hope we can keep this forum active for severe wx season. I love it more than anything, and would really like to see this place light up.

I'll try to post more. I normally chase about 10-15x each season, so I am always watching things, etc.

[jaster220]

Yeah it's disappointing how this sub really dies after during Winter. I'll be on more during the Summer at least now that I'm here in Lincoln year-round now.

 

Fixed. Think about it. If this sub wasn't the size of the former USSR, I wouldn't even have a reason to be here cheering on all you peeps that had a legit system. I'm not saavy at tracking with all the modern tools and don't get any thrill out of following somebody else's storm. And for me, speculation season ended 1-1/2 months ago. I'm already scrambling to find something to fill the down-time with this lame warm spell..