California Weather/ Climate

[Dan the Weatherman]

There is a low level cumulus deck here in Orange today, which is almost always a positive sign when there is rain in the forecast. This indicates that the lower levels of the atmosphere are moist as opposed to being dry.

 

This once again came true. It rained substantially early this morning here in Orange, and filled at least one of my rain barrels and filled the 4 large pots that I have been setting out as of late to catch rainwater off the roof of my house. I will post a total later on when the rain ends.

[Guest happ]

Dewpoints temps are very high.  Air temps are very mild.

 

12:00PM

PASADENA        N/A     73  72  94 E2          N/A                  

SAN GABRIEL     N/A     76  70  83 S2        29.93S                 
SAN RAFAEL HILLS   N/A     75  75 100 NE2         N/A                  
WHITTIER HILL   N/A     77  76  98 SW5         N/A       

 

San Gabriel recorded 2.45" from storm.

[Alan]

Just over 3" here since 6am. Some impressive totals, here's the top list from NWS SD as of 1pm.

 

Yucaipa ridge is about 20 miles south of me and is the ridge facing the valley in front of San Gorgonio which sits at 11.5k.

 

1. YUCAIPA RIDGE 5.20 9020

2. CREST PARK 2.99 5624

3. RUNNING SPRINGS PARK 2.88 5440

4. RIMFOREST 2.86 5710

5. CITY CREEK RANGER STA 2.79 2647

6. SANTIAGO PEAK 2.56 5660

7. KSOX RADAR SITE 2.36 3092

8. HEMLOCK BURN 2.32 2280

9. RAYWOOD FLATS 2.32 7097

10.STRAWBERRY CREEK 2.32 2986

[Guest happ]

Quite extraordinary storm locally and puts much of SoCal well above normal for rainfall this rain year [starting July 1].

 

Rain: 2.01

Year: jul-jun]: 2.60

 

80 / 70

[Dan the Weatherman]

Just over 3" here since 6am. Some impressive totals, here's the top list from NWS SD as of 1pm.

 

Yucaipa ridge is about 20 miles south of me and is the ridge facing the valley in front of San Gorgonio which sits at 11.5k.

 

1. YUCAIPA RIDGE 5.20 9020

2. CREST PARK 2.99 5624

3. RUNNING SPRINGS PARK 2.88 5440

4. RIMFOREST 2.86 5710

5. CITY CREEK RANGER STA 2.79 2647

6. SANTIAGO PEAK 2.56 5660

7. KSOX RADAR SITE 2.36 3092

8. HEMLOCK BURN 2.32 2280

9. RAYWOOD FLATS 2.32 7097

10.STRAWBERRY CREEK 2.32 2986

 

This should help to suppress the fire danger in the short term, especially this weekend when it is forecast to heat up again. It would be nice to get a couple of more tropical rain events like this before the Santa Anas begin to blow sometime next month.

 

The San Diego and Oxnard NWS AFDs are mentioning the possibility of another intrusion of tropical moisture Tuesday or Wednesday of next week for Socal, so maybe if we are lucky, we will get something similar once again.

[Alan]

It would be incredible to get anything close to a repeat as soon as next week let alone next summer!

[Mattywx101]

Just over 3" here since 6am. Some impressive totals, here's the top list from NWS SD as of 1pm.

 

Yucaipa ridge is about 20 miles south of me and is the ridge facing the valley in front of San Gorgonio which sits at 11.5k.

 

1. YUCAIPA RIDGE 5.20 9020

2. CREST PARK 2.99 5624

3. RUNNING SPRINGS PARK 2.88 5440

4. RIMFOREST 2.86 5710

5. CITY CREEK RANGER STA 2.79 2647

6. SANTIAGO PEAK 2.56 5660

7. KSOX RADAR SITE 2.36 3092

8. HEMLOCK BURN 2.32 2280

9. RAYWOOD FLATS 2.32 7097

10.STRAWBERRY CREEK 2.32 2986

Gee, these would be fairly significant 24hour rainfall totals in January.  Hopefully, we can get storm totals like that this winter, and in the form of snow up in the mtns. 

[richard mann]

-

Main moisture, broader (synoptic.) scope.

 

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/sportPublishData.pl?dataset=cira&product=conus anom&stamp=20150916 0217&loc=#image

 

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/sportPublishData.pl?dataset=cira&product=conus tpw

 

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/sportPublishData.pl?dataset=ciralpw&product=layerpwtotal&stamp=20150916 0300&loc=west#image   @

 

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/epac/images/mosaic20150916T000000.gif

 

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/epac/main.html

[Black Hole]

Was heavy rain in the forecast? Congrats on a great storm! We are getting a piece of this in Utah with .79" at my house today from thunderstorms and more expected the next 2 days.

[Guest happ]

Was heavy rain in the forecast? Congrats on a great storm! We are getting a piece of this in Utah with .79" at my house today from thunderstorms and more expected the next 2 days.

 

No, not entirely.  Predictions were for up to an inch but, like most forecasts for rain in California, mets were cautious.  Everything came together nicely.

 

L: 65

[Mattywx101]

Yesterday while driving up to Paso Robles, I could see a smoke-no smoke line up in the atmosphere, configured in a southwest to northeast orientation, moving from northwest to southeast across the area.  That lined up with the coldfront passage.   Now we have the best air quality seen around here in several weeks.   Last night Low of 48 is the lowest minimum since July 1st. 

[Alan]

Years ago I did a bit of work in Atascadero - nothin like walking indoors in the morning when it's 30F and coming out for lunch and its 90F!

 

48F low here this morning, currently 53 with dog hanging around.

[Dan the Weatherman]

1.33" fell here in Orange with yesterday's storm, which is very impressive for a September storm. This total would be respectable for a storm during the heart of winter, such as in January or February. Hopefully this is a sign of things to come this winter!

 

I will post a total later on for the summer, as this has been the rainiest astronomical summer (June 20-21 to September 20) that I have ever seen here in Orange as far as I can remember back (early 1980's). I would estimate that I have probably received about 2.75" of rainfall during this period including the remnants of Delores back in July and a couple of other miscellaneous thunderstorm outbreaks in between.

[Guest happ]

Lower elevations were cooler this morning but the real difference was dew point temp.  The relative humidity yesterday was 100% locally.  Tonight should be very cool before minimums warm up later this week.

 

Dan, I can recall the El Nino summer of 1982-83 as wet also.  That was the first time I experienced a "tropical wave" come ashore with excessive lightning, wind and brief heavy shower.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Lower elevations were cooler this morning but the real difference was dew point temp.  The relative humidity yesterday was 100% locally.  Tonight should be very cool before minimums warm up later this week.

 

Dan, I can recall the El Nino summer of 1982-83 as wet also.  That was the first time I experienced a "tropical wave" come ashore with excessive lightning, wind and brief heavy shower.

I do remember summer thunderstorm activity during that time period of the early 1980's, but don't remember exactly what year that was. I was in elementary school at the time, and it was during that time period that I first became interested in the weather and have been hooked since! I certainly remember the heavy winter rains during that time period when the school playground got flooded for a time after it had been raining for hours.

[Guest happ]

I do remember summer thunderstorm activity during that time period of the early 1980's, but don't remember exactly what year that was. I was in elementary school at the time, and it was during that time period that I first became interested in the weather and have been hooked since! I certainly remember the heavy winter rains during that time period when the school playground got flooded for a time after it had been raining for hours.

That was when I had a weather radio with updates each hour and warnings.  'Doctor George' was the popular met on Channel 7 and showed an arc of advancing clouds/ storm front on radar.  By early afternoon lightening could be seen all over even under partly cloudy skies and the humidity was excessive.  The storm only lasted maybe an hour but it dropped a lot of rain.  The storm that reminded me of this tropical wave was Dolores in July; it was hot and extremely muggy that night; the rain felt uncommonly warm.

[Guest happ]

This is very encouraging for additional moisture if it verifies:

 

NWS_SD

THIS LOW AND THIS 
  SOUTHWEST HIGH WILL PROPEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SEND TROPICAL MOISTURE 
  INTO OUR REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ALSO BRING BACK 
  THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WE ARE USED TO THIS MONTH. TEMPERATURES IN THE 
  90S WILL BE WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY...BUT THE GREATER CLOUD COVER 
  SHOULD DAMPEN SOME OF THE HEAT ON TUESDAY. THIS CUTOFF LOW AND THIS 
  MOISTURE POOL ARE FEATURES THAT ARE VERY SUBTLE AND MODELS HAVE A 
  HARD TIME COMING TO A CONSENSUS ON THE DETAILS. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS 
  LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ON 
  MONDAY...A FULL COMPLIMENT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE ENTIRE REGION 
  ON TUESDAY...AND MOISTURE MOVING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY 
  FOR PRECIP OVER MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THIS SCENARIO WILL CERTAINLY 
  BE MODIFIED QUITE A BIT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 

 

L: 63
 

[Dan the Weatherman]

I am looking forward to the possibility of more early season rainfall next week, and hope that it verifies!

 

Meanwhile today was really nice here in Orange and did some yard work for the first time in quite a while.

[Guest happ]

I am looking forward to the possibility of more early season rainfall next week, and hope that it verifies!

 

Meanwhile today was really nice here in Orange and did some yard work for the first time in quite a while.

 

Yes, very nice but I must admit that the forecast rainfall, though great news,  means more heat/ humidity. 

 

 

83/  63

[Mattywx101]

We had one day of below average temperatures this week.  That makes 7 days with below average temps since June 20( 3 of those this month).   This summer will very likely be the warmest summer on record on the coast here.  Looking at the forecast from NWS L.A this afternoon, its pretty much a given this summer will go down as being the warmest summer on record here.  I'll write out some summer temperatures near me in SLO county after the 21st.  For now:

 

Wednesday:  H 66, L 48

Thursday:      H 81, L 59

Friday:  currently at 4:23pm,  87 and still rising....  Average 70/52.

[Guest happ]

We had one day of below average temperatures this week.  That makes 7 days with below average temps since June 20( 3 of those this month).   This summer will very likely be the warmest summer on record on the coast here.  Looking at the forecast from NWS L.A this afternoon, its pretty much a given this summer will go down as being the warmest summer on record here.  I'll write out some summer temperatures near me in SLO county after the 21st.  For now:

 

Wednesday:  H 66, L 48

Thursday:      H 81, L 59

Friday:  currently at 4:23pm,  87 and still rising....  Average 70/52.

 

I don't think this has been the warmest summer west of the coastal mountains; in-fact July was actually a little below normal in SoCal.  June and August were only slightly above normal primarily due to warmer than normal night temps.

 

93 / 65

[Dan the Weatherman]

I don't think this has been the warmest summer west of the coastal mountains; in-fact July was actually a little below normal in SoCal.  June and August were only slightly above normal primarily due to warmer than normal night temps.

 

93 / 65

I agree. I believe that the last couple of summers have been warmer overall than this summer has been, but this summer has been much more interesting in terms of rainfall west of the mountains.

[Guest happ]

A quick glance at the records indicates that Mattywx101 is correct with regard to this being the warmest summer on record for some locations in San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties.

 

Warmest June, July, and August in Morro Bay.

 

Warmest July and August in Santa Maria and Lompoc.

 

Warmest August in Santa Barbara.

 

No records set at San Luis Obispo or Pismo Beach, or at any locations more inland that I could find at first glance.

 

The very high SSTs all across the Eastern Pacific would seem to have been more of a factor than excessive upper level ridging, but that's just my uneducated guess.

 

Thanks for the data.  I think Mattywx101 lives in San Simeon [near Morro Bay].  The warm ocean temps elevated minimums and even maximums at the coastline this summer.

 

1990 & 1994 were very warm summers.  July 2006 was extremely hot across California.

 

Looks like hot temps tomorrow and moisture on Sunday.

[Mattywx101]

I don't think this has been the warmest summer west of the coastal mountains; in-fact July was actually a little below normal in SoCal.  June and August were only slightly above normal primarily due to warmer than normal night temps.

 

93 / 65

These record warm summer temps are just localized to certain areas along the immediate coastal stretch here.  I am in the San Simeon-Morro Bay vicinity.   But overall for areas west of the coastal mountains I think you are right.           

[Guest happ]

Very warm weekend

 

95 / 69

[Dan the Weatherman]

Very warm weekend

 

95 / 69

Tomorrow is forecast to be even warmer with mid-upper 90's forecast for inland Orange County.

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/933-fall-2015-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=84985

[Guest happ]

I chased a coyote off my deck this morning; it was fairly windy @ 5am; dry offshore wind felt good. 

 

http://www.weatherwest.com/archives/3478

 

Interesting discussion on possible heavy showers tomorrow.

 

L: 73

[Dan the Weatherman]

It has reached 100 degrees here in Orange early this afternoon.

[Black Hole]

Nice tropical system approaching you guys, doesn't look as robust as the last one for coastal California but certainly potential for heavy rains. I think this will be especially true towards the CA/AZ border.

[Guest happ]

It has reached 100 degrees here in Orange early this afternoon.

 

October is generally the last month of triple digit heat; can't wait for winter!

 

102 / 73

[Dan the Weatherman]

October is generally the last month of triple digit heat; can't wait for winter!

 

102 / 73

 

At least the triple digit heat seen in October is usually a drier heat seen during a Santa Ana wind pattern as opposed to the muggier heat that is so common in August and September, which usually leads to cooler, more comfortable nights.

[Guest happ]

I noticed the strong SSE winds this morning and what appeared to be a little stratus looking south toward Long Beach.  There is an eddy circulation that could really help lower temps today.  Clouds from the system off Baja are also moving north but rain chances may be meager.  It is more humid today.

 

L: 75

[Guest happ]

Temps were off to a fast start this morning  - I had a high of 91 at only 8:47 a.m.  Then the SE breeze kicked up due to the eddy and it cooled things right off.  80 now at noon.

 

Looking less and less likely that any rain will find its way here.

 

It was a great reprieve from "mother nature" that I was surprised that it surprised NWS_LA that as late as 11:40AM still underestimated the strong eddy circulation.  Several of the heat waves this summer have been altered by low pressure offshore.  Its amazing what clouds and dew point temps can do to suppress heat.

 

87 / 75   

 

Revised minimum: 71

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/609-approaching-pattern-discussion/?p=85118

[Guest happ]

(.. cross-reference.)

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/609-approaching-pattern-discussion/?p=85118

 

Cooler weather sounds great.  With an ULL temps should be very comfortable today.  I couldn't find much in the way of rain totals anywhere in California and surprisingly meager amounts in Arizona [western half].  Dewpoints are high, per the new norm!

 

L: 69   

[Mattywx101]

Its official,  warmest summer on record in San Luis Obispo since 1893 when records were first kept.  For San Luis Obispo this summer temp came out to 70.5, average is 66.3.  The previous record was last summer 2014, at 68.1.  Many other coastal spots also had a record warm summer here.  Hopefully will see some numbers soon.  Anyway, nice cooling trend has commenced, yesterday:  84/68, today:  70/60.  Sea temp off Cape San Martin was 68 the other day, now down to 66.  Average sea temp at this time of year is in the 58-60 range off SLO.   

[Guest happ]

There are two stations in San Luis Obispo [the university & NOAA].  Speaking of hot; there is nothing good in the forecast!

 

Tuesday: 87 / 69

 

L: 68

[Guest happ]

Still some positive heat indexes as illustrated in 3PM readings but dew point temps should continue to lower under southwest flow. 

 

PASADENA        N/A     95  70  43 E2          N/A  HX 101 

SAN GABRIEL     N/A     91  68  47 SW12      29.86F HX  95          

WHITTIER HILL   N/A     94  71  47 SW9         N/A  HX 101 

SANTA ANA        N/A     91  71  51 SW1       29.76F HX  97          

POWAY            N/A     91  69  49 SW5       29.82F HX  95          
                  

L: 69
 

[Guest happ]

KAHULUI, MAUI  PTCLDY    77  68  73 NE13      29.89R                 
SAN DIEGO CA  MOSUNNY   77  68  73 CALM      29.89S