California Weather/ Climate

[richard mann]

-
.. 30 min. interval 4km IR, showing the main storm more south, with CB development running northward over the main crest of the Sierras, as far north as here where I am. 

 
 
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/sat.shtml

[Guest happ]

 

_{Incredibly heavy rain has been falling here in Orange over the last 45 minutes or so. I went in my pool before the rain started and actually stayed in during the downpour for a while as there was no thunder or lightning. Never before have I been in my pool during a downpour since this type of weather is almost unheard of during the summer months in this area.}

_{It is still coming down in buckets as I type and I don't think I have ever seen rain like this in July before of this duration. This is almost like a heavy El Nino winter storm and I am enjoying every minute of this extremely rare rainfall! There hasn't been any thunder or lightning, but the rain has certainly been heavy and steady!}

 

 

_{A shower began around 5pm here but only lasted a short period otherwise it has been dark and very muggy.  I checked dewpoint temps this afternoon and LA had similar readings with Miami and New York.}

 

_{92 / 72}

_0.06

_{Month: 0.57}

[Dan the Weatherman]

It is still raining here in Orange and has been almost continuously since I posted earlier this afternoon. The heaviest rain fell this afternoon, before tapering off to lighter showers late afternoon and early evening, and was somewhat heavier for a while after dark. When I checked my rain gauge before dinner, it showed that .92" had fallen here just today alone! I will post a grand total when the rains come to an end, likely sometime tomorrow.

 

This has been the most impressive July rainfall event I have ever seen here and I have lived in this area my entire life! Possibly the last significant summer rainfall event like this happened in 1976 or 1977, but I was too young at the time to remember it, as my weather memories really began in earnest during my elementary school years in the early 80's.

[Alan]

2.1" since yesterday morning - 1.3" of that since 3pm today with heavy rain as we speak and looks to continue much of the night - unreal!

 

Thank You Dolores!

[Dan the Weatherman]

1.08" fell here in Orange with today's event, which is incredible for mid summer! That is in addition to the .26" that fell here yesterday, for a grand two day total of 1.34".

If I receive any more rain between now and tomorrow, I will post the grand total for the three day period.

[Guest happ]

I heard that Ramona picked up 4 inches this weekend; lots of rain in Arizona also.  It can't be better weather as the trough reasserts cooler than normal marine air even inland this week.  Dodged another bullet as fires die down.

 

I knew it was raining lightly last night because the cats were wet off and on but only 0.02.  San Diego and Orange counties experienced heavy showers; also up in Santa Maria/ San Luis Obispo. 

[Jesse]

Really glad to hear you guys are getting some needed rainfall down there.

[Alan]

Yep - Ramona kicked but - average yearly around 12" there I think? 4" in 2 days LOL in the middle of JULY!

 

I ended with 2.72" as of this morning with chance Tstorms today, but we'll see.  Here's the higher totals from NWS SD as of 7pm yesterday, some of these amounts went up overnight.

 

1. RAMONA 4.10 0 RAMONA

2. PINYON PINES RAWS 3.28 1S PINYON PINES
3. VOLCAN MOUNTAIN 2.69
4. RUNNING SPRINGS 2.67
5. PHELAN LANDFILL 2.64 1NE PHELAN
6. BLUE RIDGE 2.56
7. LAKE ARROWHEAD N 2.54
8. CAMP ELLIOT RAWS 2.52 8NNW SAN DIEGO
9. LIVE OAK CANYON 2.40 10SW IDYLLWILD
10.KEARNY MESA 2.39 6NNW SAN DIEGO

[Guest happ]

How often is the beach the only place with a heat index?

 

1PM

REDONDO BEACH   PTSUNNY      86  68  54 E5        30.02S HX  90   

PASADENA       PTSUNNY              79  70  73 E2          N/A          

[Guest happ]

Deep marine layer extended well inland.  Dew points still 65-70.  Grass is growing on the bare foothills.  What are the chances of a repeat performance of the tropical variety any time soon?

 

L: 70

[Guest happ]

The Euro shows the next tropical storm heading out to sea.

 

Have your nights been warmer than normal when you have an onshore flow?

 

There have been some warm nights but troughs generally suppress minimums.  July is definitely cooler than normal.

[L.A-AlltheWAY]

Is it possible for a hurricane to make a landfall in Southern California like in the movie sharknado?
Not just thunderstorms from the remnants or stray pieces of it but the eye itself?

 

if it did happen, would the damage be MUCH rose than a comprable size storm on the East Coast because we are not built to withstand such heavy rain and wind?

 

How would the city of L.A "weather" 80 mph winds and 6 inches of rain (more than what we get some years for the entire season) within 12 hours?

 

Lastly, who would they evacuate to where prior to the landfall and how much notice would be given before landfall?

 

Would it be as castostrophic as Katrina was to New Orleans?

[Dan the Weatherman]

It is possible that a tropical storm could make landfall in Socal if the conditions were just right with warmer than water temperatures, a favorable track, and if the forward speed of the storm were fast enough that the storm doesn't completely fall part before making landfall. A tropical storm did make landfall in Long Beach in September, 1939, and brought a good deal of rain to the L.A. area.

[Guest happ]

Precipitation is limited to drizzle.  Dew point temps are lowering a bit across the Southwest [PHOENIX, AZ    MOSUNNY   91  43  18 NE3       29.86R].  Strong onshore clouds/ relative cool temps west of the mountains.

 

L: 69

[Guest happ]

Is it possible for a hurricane to make a landfall in Southern California like in the movie sharknado?

Not just thunderstorms from the remnants or stray pieces of it but the eye itself?

 

if it did happen, would the damage be MUCH rose than a comprable size storm on the East Coast because we are not built to withstand such heavy rain and wind?

 

How would the city of L.A "weather" 80 mph winds and 6 inches of rain (more than what we get some years for the entire season) within 12 hours?

 

Lastly, who would they evacuate to where prior to the landfall and how much notice would be given before landfall?

 

Would it be as castostrophic as Katrina was to New Orleans?

 

Hi LA AlltheWay

 

Found this in today's newspaper:

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-el-nino-forecast-20150721-story.html#page=1

 

Can hurricanes hit California?

Surprise -- yes. 

 

Hurricane-force winds hit San Diego on Oct. 2, 1858, and tropical storm-force winds were felt up the coast to Long Beach, according to scientists writing in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. El Niño may have been a factor. 

"Houses were unroofed and blown down, trees uprooted, and fences destroyed" in San Diego, according to one newspaper account. Another newspaper story reported severe damage at the San Pedro wharf, and heavy rains flooding streets and homes in Los Angeles. 

A tropical storm struck Long Beach in September in the El Niño year of 1939, causing $2 million in damage. 

And as El Niño developed in the summer of 1997, Hurricane Linda -- at the time the most powerful on record in the eastern Pacific -- threatened to menace Southern California and make landfall in San Diego as a weak hurricane or strong tropical storm. But the hurricane shifted direction and headed west to sea.

[Guest happ]

  Hope grows that El Niño will reach Northern California — and key reservoirs

         

It's the middle of the summer, but it felt a bit like winter in the Sierra this week as a storm dumped four inches of hail on Interstate 80 around Donner Summit.

There was so much pea-sized ice that the California Highway Patrol on Tuesday halted traffic and called out snowplows — known as the "Sierra Snowfighters" — for help.

"It looked just like snow, a blanket of snow across all the lanes," said California Department of Transportation snowplower John Wheeler. "It was really weird."

The hail storm was just the latest strange weather to hit the Sierra Nevada, influenced by the weather-changing phenomenon El Niño. For months, climate scientists have said El Niño is likely to bring more rain to Southern California this winter.

But here's the big question in a state enduring four years of severe drought: How far north will El Niño's influence roam?

The El Niño hitting the mountains of the north is critical because California's vast waterworks rely on rain and snow from the Sierra to supply farms and cities. By contrast, much of the rain that falls in Southern California ends up in the ocean.

Experts are becoming more optimistic about El Niño's northern reach.

Only three months ago, all of California had an equal chance of a wet or a dry winter. But in May, the scales began to turn in favor of a wet winter.

By June, the official forecast by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted that both Southern California and the San Joaquin Valley would be in a region where odds favored wet conditions. Last week, the line moved north again, and San Francisco was included.

Still, the area north of San Francisco, where California's largest reservoirs — Shasta Lake and Lake Oroville — sit, has an equal chance of a dry or wet winter.

 

That could change if El Niño continues to muscle up, enabling storms to elbow into the north. That's what happened during the two biggest El Niños on record, in 1982-83 and 1997-98.

"If this El Niño continues to strengthen, it would not surprise me to see … all the lines extend farther north," bringing the far reaches of the state into a zone where odds favor a wet winter, NOAA Climate Prediction Center Deputy Director Mike Halpert said.

El Niño can shift the so-called subtropical jet stream from the jungles of southern Mexico and Nicaragua north, over Southern California and the southern United States, said Bill Patzert, a climatologist with NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge.

"The really big El Niños — we're not there yet — can soak the whole state. But right now, it's possible to get a lot of flooding and mudslides in the south. In Northern California, you could get below-normal rainfall and snowpack," Patzert said. "So that's why I'm not calling this a drought-buster yet."

But even if storms pelt the north, as Stanford University climate scientist Daniel Swain expects they will, El Niño may not give California the drought relief many people might expect.

Much of the eastern Pacific Ocean is experiencing exceptionally warm temperatures, which could produce storms that dump far more rain than the usual mix of rain and snow, which can sit in the mountains for months before melting and trickling into reservoirs.

Too much rain all at once could force water to be flushed out to sea to keep dams from overflowing, and "there's no way we can possibly store all of the water," Swain said.

Lifelong residents in the mountain communities around Lake Tahoe have been talking about the weather for weeks. It has caused many to think back to the biggest El Niño year on record, 1997-98, when rains flooded homes along the Truckee River.

•  

The amount of cumulative hail so far in July has been impressive, said Scott McGuire, a meteorologist in the National Weather Service's Reno office.

"We've certainly had more moisture in our region than we typically do," McGuire said, adding that El Niño "is definitely playing a role. It provides fuel for the atmosphere."

In early July, thunderstorms forced tourists from boats on Fallen Leaf Lake and suspended gondola rides at the Heavenly ski resort in South Lake Tahoe. Snow fell in the eastern Sierra, coating mountains east of Yosemite National Park. In Truckee, a Fourth of July rainstorm that caught locals by surprise was intense and relentless.

The morning started off warm and sunny, with many in shorts watching the city's parade. Then suddenly people were running from Donner Pass Road into the Chamber of Commerce building, where they stood sopping wet until the storm passed.

 

"They were just like, 'Wow, it never rains on the Fourth of July,'" said Paola Cruz, 19, a welcome center concierge for the Truckee Donner Chamber of Commerce. "The tourists are like, 'Why is it raining? It's supposed to be summer.' I tell them we need water."

The summer storms have come after an exceptionally dry and snowless winter, painful for a place where skis and snowboards are the lifeblood. Ski resorts had to make their own snow to keep their doors open.

"The ski resorts had to close earlier than they had ever closed before," Cruz said. "We had people coming in to ski, but it just wasn't the same."

CHP Officer Pete Mann, 32, who has lived most of his life near Truckee, said that Tuesday's hailstorm was the talk of the town, and that it has prompted hopes for the winter.

"We live up here for a reason. We like living in the snow," Mann said. "If this is El Niño, if this is a sign of things to come, we'll take it."

 

Mann said that when he got home Tuesday night, he had to clear about three inches of hail that had accumulated on his deck. There was still some there Wednesday morning.

"It's always funny when you come home late at night and you have to shovel the deck in July," he said.

 

hailey.branson@latimes.com

Twitter: @haileybranson

ron.lin@latimes.com

Twitter: @ronlin

ALSO:

http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-el-nino-north-20150723-story.html

[Guest happ]

Noticed recently how elevated dewpoints can follow the Colorado River first and then spread-out over the rest of the low desert.

 

BLYTHE         SUNNY     87  72  60 S12       29.98R                 
IMPERIAL AP    SUNNY     89  60  37 CALM      29.96R                 
EL CENTRO NAS  SUNNY     91  44  19 VRB3      29.98R                 
YUMA AZ        MOSUNNY   90  72  55 SE12      29.98R HX  97          
MEXICALI       SUNNY     86  73  66 SE6       29.98R        

[Guest happ]

Does anyone recall rainfall in July 2006 and 2009?  Hope this verifies:

 

NWS_LOS ANGELES

THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. WITH 
  SOUTHEAST FLOW LASTING THIS LONG...HAVE TO EXPECT PLENTY OF MOISTURE 
  AND CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A POTENTIAL FOR 
  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS ELEVATED HEAT INDEX VALUES. 
  THE MOST SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO WHAT THE MODELS ARE PROJECTING 
  OCCURRED IN JULY 2006 AND 2009. DURING THOSE EVENTS...WE HAD 
  EXCESSIVE HEAT AND FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS. A LOT CAN CHANGE FROM 
  NOW UNTIL THEN...AND IF WE GET A LOT OF CLOUD COVER THOSE TWO 
  HAZARDS WILL LESS CONCERNING...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A 
  HAZARDOUS MIDDLE-TO-END OF NEXT WEEK.

 

90/ 67
 

[Guest happ]

Nice stretch of late July weather; later this week looks hot but also wet [at least in mts].

 

88 / 68

[Guest happ]

July is coming to an end and only 5 days have been in the 90's [could be a record for least days].  Probably warm up for the rest of the week but if the forecast holds than monsoonal cloudiness should modify the heat.  Dewpoint temps have remained elevated since 7/18 even though low deserts have had generally lower DP temps over past week.  I wonder if warmer than normal SST [mostly low-mid 70's] have contributed to higher dew points and thus warmer minimums.

 

88 / 67

[Guest happ]

Good vertical build-ups over San Gabriel mountains this afternoon [Palmdale 0.69] w/ flash flood watch overnight; hopefully some moisture will drift further westward into lowlands.

 

87 / 64

[Alan]

Picked up .50" myself today with hail and plenty of thunder.  Flash flood watch from 3am-8pm tomorrow, easterly wave set to track across socal.

 

Summer is already doing better than winter did, geeze!

[Guest happ]

Picked up .50" myself today with hail and plenty of thunder.  Flash flood watch from 3am-8pm tomorrow, easterly wave set to track across socal.

 

Summer is already doing better than winter did, geeze!

 

Isn't it a shame we have to wait until summer to get rain!  The Southwest has been active since May.

[Alan]

Isn't a shame we have to wait until summer to get rain!  The Southwest has been active since May.

 

Indeed!  last summer was almost the same story with a very active summer monsoon after a poor winter....I love summer storms but not in lieu of good old fashioned winter storms!  I'm sure hoping the potential for a 'super duper' El Nino stirs things up a bit and brings winter back to CA.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Currently getting a thunderstorm here in Orange during the last 5-10 minutes. I have heard 4 claps of thunder, one almost directly overhead, and there have been some huge drops of rain (between quarter and half dollar size). The rain hasn't been exceptionally heavy, but it has been enough to wet the ground.

[Guest happ]

It seems the bulk of the moisture was north and east of Los Angeles.  A measure of the humidity we've been experiencing this month is that my glasses fog over when I go outside or especially when I enter a hot car.

 

90 / 68   

[Dan the Weatherman]

.05" fell here in Orange with this evening's thunderstorm, bringing my monthly total to an amazing 1.39"! This has been the wettest July I have seen since I have lived at this location (20 years).

 

So far this summer there have been 3 days in which I have either seen lightning or heard thunder and three days with measurable rainfall at my location.

[Guest happ]

Alan, anymore rain at your location?  Stations nearby:

 

LAKE ARROWHEAD    5180 :   85 /  60 /  0.93 /
ANGELUS OAKS      5800 :   75 /  58 /  0.82 /
PINE COVE         6299 :   77 /  63 /  1.23 /
IDYLLWILD         5380 :   79 /  57 /  1.14 /

 

No rain here but north LA county was active.
 

[Alan]

Alan, anymore rain at your location?  Stations nearby:

 

LAKE ARROWHEAD    5180 :   85 /  60 /  0.93 /

ANGELUS OAKS      5800 :   75 /  58 /  0.82 /

PINE COVE         6299 :   77 /  63 /  1.23 /

IDYLLWILD         5380 :   79 /  57 /  1.14 /

 

No rain here but north LA county was active.

 

 

As far as rain goes yesterday only added .05" mostly falling in about 2 minutes then some light rain for about 30 minutes.  From 10am till 7pm there was never a period of more than 10 minutes without thunder and from 4pm-6pm it was nearly constant with quite the lightning show including some very very close with nearly instant ground shaking thunder - very impressive day in that regard!

 

I was watching the radar as a thunderstorm formed nearly over me and drifted north/west and that gave Lake Arrowhead and those communities a decent downpour and a huge cell that went purple on radar was coming from the south and boy was I certain it would hit me being right in the line of fire.....last minute it drifted due west and then tracked northwest again basically going around me!  It's as if it bumped into San Gorgonio (11500') and that made it veer west instead of continuing in the path it was tracking up until then (?).

 

Down the hill areas of Redlands, Yucaipa and probably Beaumont received 1"+ from that.

[Guest happ]

July Data 2015

 

Aver Max: 85.4 / Norm: 88

Aver Min: 66.4 / Norm: 64

Mean: 75.9 / Norm: 76

 

Hi Max: 92

Lo Max: 76 

Hi Min: 72

Lo Min: 61

 

Rain: 0.59

Days: 3

 

It was a remarkably mild month; no real heatwaves.  Normally 100° occurs by now.  Dolores & monsoon showers provided record amounts of rainfall.   

[Alan]

3.52" rain for July (thanks Dolores!) fell over 6 days, much cooler overall with zero days above 80.

[Guest happ]

Quiet period of no monsoon influence; even the tropical Pacific is tame especially considering how weak Guillermo is currently.  Some blow-off high clouds from Guillermo today; otherwise seasonably warm.

 

L: 65

[Alan]

Nights warmed up the last few only in the low 60's, well above average, but days topping out at about 76 which is average.

 

GFS wants to spit a little monsoon rain on the mountains here Thursday and NWS SD mentioned the fact...probably just some fair weather cumulus buildup is what it will amount to....

 

Hoping by the weekend there is something exciting to look forward to...

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/609-approaching-pattern-discussion/?p=82182

[Guest happ]

(.. cross-reference.)

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/609-approaching-pattern-discussion/?p=82182

 

I'm very encouraged that moisture and lower temps should help control the fires.  Most of the fires across the state were started by lightning.   Thanks for the data, Richard 

[Guest happ]

Nights warmed up the last few only in the low 60's, well above average, but days topping out at about 76 which is average.

 

GFS wants to spit a little monsoon rain on the mountains here Thursday and NWS SD mentioned the fact...probably just some fair weather cumulus buildup is what it will amount to....

 

Hoping by the weekend there is something exciting to look forward to...

 

If we are shut off from the monsoon at least troughiness seems to be semi-stationary off the California coast.  Dewpoints this afternoon were below 60 degrees even in some places west of the mountains today.  It made for intense heat in the desert but seasonal at the coast.

 

92 / 68

[Guest happ]

Nights warmed up the last few only in the low 60's, well above average, but days topping out at about 76 which is average.

 

GFS wants to spit a little monsoon rain on the mountains here Thursday and NWS SD mentioned the fact...probably just some fair weather cumulus buildup is what it will amount to....

 

Hoping by the weekend there is something exciting to look forward to...

 

On the other hand, dewpoints rising ahead of convective showers in the Gulf of California.  You are more likely to get a shower than me>

 

10AM

IMPERIAL AP    SUNNY     98  60  28 SE6       29.81S HX  98          

YUMA AZ        MOSUNNY   98  69  38 S9        29.85F HX 104          

MEXICALI       SUNNY     95  70  43 S8        29.84F HX 101          

 

Lo: 69

 

[Alan]

It is staring to look likely that at least somewhere in the mountains will see some rain tomorrow!

[Guest happ]

It is staring to look likely that at least somewhere in the mountains will see some rain tomorrow!

 

Maybe more lightning than showers, I'm afraid, especially in Central California. 

 

L: 70

[Dan the Weatherman]

I just received a brief light shower along with a little bit of thunder here in Orange.