weatherfan2012 Posted February 16, 2019 Report Share Posted February 16, 2019 The one trend that could be problematic for us winter weenies (if it continues) is the delaying of the start time until after sunrise.Assuming the system structure remains as is, there shouldn’t be too many thermal issues if precipitation starts ~ 9-10AM, but anything later allows insolation to get more work in. We’re two months removed from the solstice below 40N..the Sun is definitely a factor now.also I also wonder if the models are erroring in the opposite fashion then they have been this winter.as the data seems to be catching up to the fact that the mjo maybe going into phases 8 through 1 along with the growing - sol if so perhaps we see a big ending in early march before the pattern gos to a true spring one mid march and after.but would be ironic how all winter models showed cold and storms and it never varifed and when they were not showing cold a few days ago and we finally get it would be a fitting end of this winter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 16, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2019 18z NAM much better set up with high pressure ridging back to Minnosota. 0C 850 as far south as South Carolina. Looks good at 6Z Wednesday. 1 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted February 16, 2019 Report Share Posted February 16, 2019 I thinkTexas will be on the usual cold rain train for our winter. But I’ll take rain as we could be crying for it this summer. 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 17, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2019 06Z run looks good. GFS a lot better with the coastal trof and ridge placement. All models have depicted a heavy precip band, the GFS depicts a very heavy snow band producing 12+ inches of snow. This band has been migrating north last 48 hrs. This looks convective, so a little thunder and cloud to cloud lighting not out of the question. Still a while to go. Curiosity Phil, you said you were ready for thunderstorms... Images below. Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 17, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2019 12Z NAM is running with heavy precip banding. Heavy snow, then sleet and freezing rain. NAM holds CAD till end of run with weak coastal low. Some of the ptype totals are epic. If you divide them in half, your talking a significant Winter Storm. Images below: Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 17, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2019 18Z GFS much colder southern Virginia. Heavy snow band a little more North and East. Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 18, 2019 Report Share Posted February 18, 2019 FWIW while the 12km NAM was much too cold here for the last CAD event, the 4km NAM and the GFS both busted warm (the former surprised me, as it’s usually pretty good with CAD). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 18, 2019 Report Share Posted February 18, 2019 Holy NAM.. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 18, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2019 Going to start a new thread, NWS just issued Winter Storm Watch.... 1 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 21, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Next cold outbreak 6-10 days out. One ingredient... Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 22, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2019 Starting to get interesting. Long way out. GFS digs secondary clipper SE by 200 miles. CMS dissipates with coastal. Lots of cold air heading SE. Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 22, 2019 Report Share Posted February 22, 2019 I think we might have one more left in us. The pattern progression, to this point, doesn’t jive with those that have historically produced snowless Mar/Apr periods. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 24, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 A system in the Thursday-Friday window to watch. Looks like another high plains blizzard, then, much below normal temperatures. The latest I can remember a major snowstorm in March was the "Superstorm" March 13-16 '93. Blizzard warnings were issued for Atlanta Ga. First time in it's history. Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 25, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2019 Day 5-10 still look good for potential winter weather. Euro most aggressive. Nevertheless, near record cold NW and northern tier. A dynamic pattern developing. Temps 8-12F below average. With late season Polar Vortex. Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 26, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2019 Looks like an active period Feb 28-Mar 6th. A 1-3" snow event Thursday night, followed by a possible Gulf of Mexico low first of week. Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 26, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2019 1 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 26, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2019 12Z NAM coming in line with Euro. This will be the first volley. 1 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 26, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2019 12Z Euro tries to transfer energy off SC coast, moves precip south of metro, the low lingers for 24 hours. 18Z NAM has doubled down and expanded precip fields. We may need to watch this. It could over perform. Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 27, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 27, 2019 Looks like it is game on for DC/Bal. Thursday night looks like snow/sleet. 1-2 most likely. This system lingers setting up strong CAD into Saturday with lingering snow/rain showers. The main event is Sunday/Monday. Epic cold Midwest/High planes digs south and east. Subtropical high noses into eastern Gulf. Wave develops off Texas coast. Good formula. It is just a timing issue. Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 27, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 27, 2019 12Z run sets up a band of moderate to heavy snow Thursday night. Accumulations 3-5". This would nesesitate a Winter Storm Watch. I'm sure the mets will wait for another run. The Sunday/Monday system is borderline. If 500mb trof would wait 8 hrs before amplification, I-95 corridor would get boomed. Plenty of time. 1 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 28, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2019 Could be a great weekend. 06Z GFS total snowfall SLR. Exact track and intensity of second storm yet to be determined. Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 28, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2019 12Z NAM in flux outside 54hrs. Heartland storm divided into two impulses. Thats OK. Monster trof does not clear East Coast till 126 hrs. Expect this model to settle down next 24hrs. Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 28, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2019 12Z models show low pressure passing south of DC/Baltimore 96hrs. Heavy snow band meanders 50 miles north and south each run. We are still in the game. Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted March 1, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 1, 2019 00-06Z GFS setting up heavy snow band over DC. Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted March 1, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 1, 2019 GFS doubles down on DC micro-blizzard... 1 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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